US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead fell sharply to 4.2% in February of 2023, the lowest since May of 2021, and compared to 5% in the previous two months. Consumers expect prices to rise at a slower pace for gas (-0.4 percentage point to 4.7%), food (-1.7 percentage point to 7.3%), medical care (-0.3 percentage point to 9.4%), college education (-1.2 percentage point to 8.1%), and rent (-0.2 percentage point to 9.4%). On the other hand, median home price growth expectations increased by 0.3 percentage points to 1.4%. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the three-year horizon remained unchanged at 2.7% and increased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.6% at the five-year-ahead horizon. At the same time, improvements were seen in labor market expectations and households’ perceptions and expectations for current and future financial situations. source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Inflation Expectations in the United States averaged 3.35 percent from 2013 until 2023, reaching an all time high of 6.80 percent in June of 2022 and a record low of 2.33 percent in October of 2019. This page provides - United States Consumer Inflation Expectations- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. United States Consumer Inflation Expectations - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on March of 2023.

Inflation Expectations in the United States is expected to be 4.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations.

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United States Consumer Inflation Expectations



Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2023-02-13 04:00 PM Jan 5% 5% 4.7%
2023-03-13 03:00 PM Feb 4.2% 5% 5.1%
2023-04-10 03:00 PM Mar 4.2% 4.0%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Inflation Expectations 4.20 5.00 percent Feb 2023

United States Consumer Inflation Expectations
In the US, inflation expectations refer to median one year ahead expected inflation rate and are part of the Survey of Consumer Expectations. The expectations are based on the nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 heads of households.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
4.20 5.00 6.80 2.33 2013 - 2023 percent Monthly
NSA

News Stream
US Inflation Expectations Lowest in Nearly 2 Years
US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead fell sharply to 4.2% in February of 2023, the lowest since May of 2021, and compared to 5% in the previous two months. Consumers expect prices to rise at a slower pace for gas (-0.4 percentage point to 4.7%), food (-1.7 percentage point to 7.3%), medical care (-0.3 percentage point to 9.4%), college education (-1.2 percentage point to 8.1%), and rent (-0.2 percentage point to 9.4%). On the other hand, median home price growth expectations increased by 0.3 percentage points to 1.4%. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the three-year horizon remained unchanged at 2.7% and increased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.6% at the five-year-ahead horizon. At the same time, improvements were seen in labor market expectations and households’ perceptions and expectations for current and future financial situations.
2023-03-13
US Consumer Inflation Expectations Steady at 5%
US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead were unchanged at 5% in January of 2023, the same as in December, and holding at low levels not seen since the end of 2021. Home price growth expectations declined by 0.2 percentage point to 1.1%, the second lowest since May 2020 but expected price changes increased for gas (by 1 percentage point to 5.1%), food (1.4 percentage point to 9%), and college education (0.1 percentage point to 9.3%) . The median expected change in the cost of rent and medical care remained unchanged at 9.6% and 9.7%, respectively. At the same time, earnings growth remained steady at 3% while unemployment expectations increased by 0.4 percentage point to 41.2%. The expectations for household income dropped by 1.3 percentage point to 3.3%, the largest drop in nearly ten-year history of the series. Inflation expectations decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.7% at the 3-year-ahead horizon, and increased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.5% at the 5-year-ahead.
2023-02-13
US Inflation Expectations Hit New 2021-Low
US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead declined for a second month to 5% in December, the lowest level since July of 2021 and compared to 5.2% in November. Expectations declined by 0.7 percentage points for gas (to 4.1%) and food (to 7.6%), and 0.2 percentage points for college education (to 9.2%) and rent (to 9.6%). The median expected change in the cost of medical care, on the other hand, rose by 0.1 percentage points (to 9.7%). Also, home price growth expectations increased by 0.3 percentage points to 1.3%. Meanwhile, the medium-term inflation expectations remained at 3% percent, while the five-year-ahead measure increased to 2.4% from 2.3%. Furthermore, household spending expectations fell sharply to 5.9% from 6.9%, while income growth expectations rose to a new series high of 4.6%.
2023-01-09