US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead increased to 5.9 percent in October of 2022 from 5.4 percent in September, after three consecutive months of a slowdown. The median expected change in gas prices rose by 4.3 percentage points to 4.8%, the largest one-month increase on record. Expectations about year-ahead price changes rose by 0.7 percentage point for food (to 7.6%) and 0.1 percentage point for rent (to 9.8%). The median expected change in the cost of medical care was unchanged at 9.2%, while the median expected change in the cost of college education declined by 0.4 percentage point to 8.6%. Meanwhile, median home price growth expectations was unchanged at 2.0%, the lowest reading since July 2020. Three-year-ahead inflation expectations went up to 3.1% from 2.9% in September and five-year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 2.4% from 2.2%. source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Inflation Expectations in the United States averaged 3.29 percent from 2013 until 2022, reaching an all time high of 6.80 percent in June of 2022 and a record low of 2.33 percent in October of 2019. This page provides - United States Consumer Inflation Expectations- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. United States Consumer Inflation Expectations - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on November of 2022.

Inflation Expectations in the United States is expected to be 5.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Consumer Inflation Expectations is projected to trend around 3.30 percent in 2023 and 3.10 percent in 2024, according to our econometric models.

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United States Consumer Inflation Expectations



Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2022-10-11 03:00 PM Sep 5.4% 5.7% 5.5%
2022-11-14 04:00 PM Oct 5.9% 5.4% 5.3%
2022-12-12 04:00 PM Nov 5.9% 5.8%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Inflation Expectations 5.90 5.40 percent Oct 2022

United States Consumer Inflation Expectations
In the US, inflation expectations refer to median one year ahead expected inflation rate and are part of the Survey of Consumer Expectations. The expectations are based on the nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 heads of households.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
5.90 5.40 6.80 2.33 2013 - 2022 percent Monthly
NSA

News Stream
US Inflation Expectations Pick Up Again
US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead increased to 5.9 percent in October of 2022 from 5.4 percent in September, after three consecutive months of a slowdown. The median expected change in gas prices rose by 4.3 percentage points to 4.8%, the largest one-month increase on record. Expectations about year-ahead price changes rose by 0.7 percentage point for food (to 7.6%) and 0.1 percentage point for rent (to 9.8%). The median expected change in the cost of medical care was unchanged at 9.2%, while the median expected change in the cost of college education declined by 0.4 percentage point to 8.6%. Meanwhile, median home price growth expectations was unchanged at 2.0%, the lowest reading since July 2020. Three-year-ahead inflation expectations went up to 3.1% from 2.9% in September and five-year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 2.4% from 2.2%.
2022-11-14
US Inflation Expectations Lowest in a Year
US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead extended the decline for a third consecutive month to 5.4% in September of 2022, the lowest in a year, from 5.7% in August. Median home price growth expectations declined by 0.1 percentage point to 2.0, its lowest reading since June 2020 and cost of medical care is also seen slowing (-0.1 percentage point to 9.2%). On the other hand, consumers expect prices to rise faster for gas (+0.4 percentage point to 0.5%), food (+1 percentage point to 6.9%), college education (+0.6 percentage point to 9.0%) and rent (+0.1 percentage point to 9.7%). Meanwhile, three-year-ahead inflation expectations rose slightly to 2.9% from 2.8% in August. On the labour front, expectations for earnings growth fell by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9% and unemployment expectations also fell by 0.9 percentage point to 39.1%. Also, household spending is seen rising 6%, well below 7.8% in August, and the biggest drop since the series’ inception in June 2013.
2022-10-11
US Inflation Expectations Fall for 2nd Month
US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead fell for a second month to 5.7% in August of 2022, the lowest reading since October last year, from 6.2% in July. Consumers now see prices rising less for gas (-1.4 percentage points to 0.1%), food (-0.8 percentage point to 5.8%), and rent (-0.3 percentage point to 9.6%). Also, home price expectations declined sharply by 1.4 percentage points to 2.1%, its lowest reading since July 2020, and falling below pre-pandemic levels. On the other hand, the median expected change in the cost of medical care rose by 0.1 percentage point to 9.3% and was unchanged for college education at 8.4%. Meanwhile, earnings growth remained unchanged at 8%, and consumers were more optimistic about their future household income and financial situations. Inflation expectations for the three-year horizon fell to 2.8% from 3.2% and the five-year-gauge declined to 2.0% from 2.3%.
2022-09-12