US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead fell to 6.2% in July of 2022, the lowest reading in five months, from a record high of 6.8% in June. Expectations fell sharply for gas (-4.2 percentage points to 1.5%, the second largest drop ever) and food price changes (-2.5 percentage points to 6.7%, the biggest decline on record). There were also smaller declines in expectations about year-ahead changes in rent (to 9.9% from 10.3%), medical care (to 9.2% from 9.5%), and college education (to 8.4% from 8.7%). Meanwhile, the median household spending growth expectation fell for the second straight month to 6.9%. Also, the probability that the unemployment rate will be higher one year from now decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 40.2%. The three-year-ahead inflation expectations declined to 3.2% from 3.6%. source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Inflation Expectations in the United States averaged 3.23 percent from 2013 until 2022, reaching an all time high of 6.80 percent in June of 2022 and a record low of 2.33 percent in October of 2019. This page provides - United States Consumer Inflation Expectations- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. United States Consumer Inflation Expectations - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on August of 2022.

Inflation Expectations in the United States is expected to be 6.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Consumer Inflation Expectations is projected to trend around 3.00 percent in 2023 and 2.40 percent in 2024, according to our econometric models.

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United States Consumer Inflation Expectations



Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2022-07-12 03:00 PM Jun 6.8% 6.6% 6.6%
2022-08-08 03:00 PM Jul 6.2% 6.8% 6.7%
2022-09-12 03:00 PM Aug 6.2%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Inflation Expectations 6.20 6.80 percent Jul 2022

United States Consumer Inflation Expectations
In the US, inflation expectations refer to median one year ahead expected inflation rate and are part of the Survey of Consumer Expectations. The expectations are based on the nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 heads of households.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
6.20 6.80 6.80 2.33 2013 - 2022 percent Monthly
NSA

News Stream
US Inflation Expectations Fall from Record High
US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead fell to 6.2% in July of 2022, the lowest reading in five months, from a record high of 6.8% in June. Expectations fell sharply for gas (-4.2 percentage points to 1.5%, the second largest drop ever) and food price changes (-2.5 percentage points to 6.7%, the biggest decline on record). There were also smaller declines in expectations about year-ahead changes in rent (to 9.9% from 10.3%), medical care (to 9.2% from 9.5%), and college education (to 8.4% from 8.7%). Meanwhile, the median household spending growth expectation fell for the second straight month to 6.9%. Also, the probability that the unemployment rate will be higher one year from now decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 40.2%. The three-year-ahead inflation expectations declined to 3.2% from 3.6%.
2022-08-08
US Inflation Expectations Hit Record High
US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead jumped to a new record of 6.8 percent in June 2022 from 6.6 percent in May. Expectations about year-ahead price changes increased for gas (5.6 percent), rent (10.3 percent), medical care (9.5 percent), and college education (8.7 percent), while households’ assessments of their current financial situation deteriorated. On the other hand, the median expected one-year-ahead change in home prices dropped sharply to 4.4 percent, from 5.8 percent in May, the lowest level since February 2021. Median year-ahead household spending growth expectations retreated from a record high to 8.4 percent. Meanwhile, the median three-year-ahead inflation expectations decreased to 3.6 percent from 3.9 percent in the prior period.
2022-07-12
US Inflation Expectations Back to Record High
US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 6.6% in May of 2022 from 6.3% in April, matching a record hit in March. After declining sharply last month, the year-ahead expected change in the price of gas rose slightly to 5.5%. On the other hand, the expected change in the price of food, medical care and rent all fell by 0.1 percentage point to 9.3%, 9.4%, and 10.2%, respectively. Similarly, the median expected change in the cost of a college education declined by 0.5 percentage points to 8.6%. Meanwhile, the median three-year-ahead inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.9%.
2022-06-13