The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell past the 3.5% mark, approaching the six-month low of 3.3% touched on Monday as investors digested the dovish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve along with the loosely-expected 25bps hike in its funds rate. The Fed indicated that it was on the verge of pausing its tightening campaign to address recent risks to financial stability, as bank failures this month threatened the health of systemic banks. Concerns that high interest rates may increase the risk of a crisis drove the FOMC to keep year-end forecasts of the funds rate unchanged at 5.1% despite a sharp increase in inflation expectations and downward revisions to the unemployment rate forecast. In the meantime, the yield on the 2-year note fell 20bps to under 4%, narrowing the inversion on the yield curve.
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Historically, the United States Government Bond 10Y reached an all time high of 15.82 in September of 1981. United States Government Bond 10Y - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on March of 2023.
The United States Government Bond 10Y is expected to trade at 3.82 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 4.20 in 12 months time.