Markets Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Currency 93.61 96.06 96.48 96.91 97.33 97.33
Stock Market (points) 35609.26 34560 33822 33098 32388 31018
Government Bond 10Y (%) 1.64 1.64 1.71 1.78 1.85 2.01

Overview Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
GDP Growth Rate (%) 6.70 4 3.1 2 1.8 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 12.20 3.8 2.1 2 3 2
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.80 5.2 5.2 5 5 5
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 194.00 550 350 500 400 280
Inflation Rate (%) 5.40 5.2 3.2 3 2.8 2.6
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.40 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.7
Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.5 0.5 0.75
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -73252.00 -63000 -52000 -59000 -70000 -63000
Current Account (USD Million) -190282.00 -177000 -157000 -140000 -160000 -137000
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.10 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 107.60 115 118 118 118 122
Government Budget (% of GDP) -14.90 -10.2 -7.7 -7.7 -7.7 -7.7
Business Confidence (points) 61.10 56.4 53 55 53 53.4
Services PMI (points) 58.20 55.5 52 53 52 50.8
Manufacturing PMI (points) 59.20 58 54.2 54 53 51
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 61.90 54 53 52 52 52
Consumer Confidence (points) 71.40 84 83 82 82 84
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.70 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.5 1
Building Permits (Thousand) 1589.00 1700 1550 1500 1450 1400
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 37 37 37

GDP Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
GDP Growth Rate (%) 6.70 4 3.1 2 1.8 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 12.20 3.8 2.1 2 3 2
GDP (USD Billion) 20936.60 21500 21500 21500 21500 22790
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion) 19368.31 19875 19481 19456 19756 19871
Gross National Product (USD Billion) 19573.16 20131 19709 19667 19965 20104
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion) 3592.96 3556 3588 3639 3665 3660
GDP per capita (USD) 53748.97 56200 56200 56200 56200 55000
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 60235.73 60500 60500 60500 60500 61100
GDP From Agriculture (USD Billion) 243.00 276 263 248 250 282
GDP From Construction (USD Billion) 690.70 699 699 705 711 713
GDP From Manufacturing (USD Billion) 2329.20 2319 2318 2376 2399 2366
GDP From Mining (USD Billion) 416.50 445 443 425 429 454
GDP From Public Administration (USD Billion) 2218.30 2263 2227 2263 2285 2308
GDP From Services (USD Billion) 13379.10 13416 13444 13647 13780 13685
GDP From Transport (USD Billion) 490.70 521 521 501 505 531
GDP From Utilities (USD Billion) 290.20 300 293 296 299 306

Labour Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.80 5.2 5.2 5 5 5
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 194.00 550 350 500 400 280
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand) 317.00 405 280 450 500 400
Government Payrolls (Thousand) -123.00 2 2 2 15 60
Manufacturing Payrolls (Thousand) 26.00 20 40 35 20 20
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 290.00 300 300 300 200 270
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand) 2481.00 2700 2500 2300 2200 2000
ADP Employment Change (Thousand) 568.00 350 290 200 300 350
Employed Persons (Thousand) 153680.00 145000 147000 150500 153000 155000
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 7674.00 8190 7900 7600 7300 7100
Average Hourly Earnings (%) 0.60 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 34.80 34.8 34.8 34.9 35 35
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 61.60 62 62.2 62.3 62.5 62.7
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 1.66 2 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.2
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 9.00 9.4 9.4 9.2 9.2 9.2
Labour Costs (points) 118.60 126 123 122 121 128
Productivity (points) 112.70 113 114 114 114 114
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 10679.00 11100 10600 10000 9800 9600
Job Offers (Thousand) 10439.00 10600 10000 9800 9600 9000
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 17895.00 40000 40000 45000 40000 55000
Wages (USD/Hour) 26.15 26.01 26 26.23 26.93 26.94
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 24.24 24.02 24.01 24.17 24.97 24.88
Wage Growth (%) 9.49 3.4 2.9 2 3 3.6
Minimum Wages (USD/Hour) 7.25 7.25 10 10 10 10
Employment Cost Index (%) 0.70 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6
Population (Million) 329.48 333 333 333 333 335
Retirement Age Women 66.17 66.17 66.33 66.33 66.33 66.33
Retirement Age Men 66.17 66.17 66.33 66.33 66.33 66.33
Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Thousand) 319.75 320 310 320 300 300
Employment Rate (%) 58.70 59.2 60 60.1 60.3 61
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 128027.00 130627 132627 134000 134500 133627
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 25747.00 25400 25500 25800 25000 26500

Prices Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Inflation Rate (%) 5.40 5.2 3.2 3 2.8 2.6
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.40 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.7
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 274.14 275 273 279 282 282
Core Consumer Prices (points) 280.02 281 282 286 287 286
Core Inflation Rate (%) 4.00 4 3.8 2.8 2.4 1.7
GDP Deflator (points) 117.41 120 119 121 121 124
Producer Prices (points) 128.90 128 128 129 133 130
Producer Prices Change (%) 8.60 6.8 3.6 2.5 3 1.8
Export Prices (points) 142.80 138 135 130 130 129
Import Prices (points) 134.70 132 131 132 130 128
Food Inflation (%) 4.60 2.8 2 2 1.8 2.3
Core Pce Price Index (points) 118.10 119 120 120 130 132
Core Producer Prices (points) 127.20 131 132 136 138 140
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 283.74 288 285 289 292 295
CPI Transportation (points) 236.37 238 239 240 241 242
Inflation Expectations (%) 5.30 3.6 3.5 3 2.8 3
Pce Price Index (points) 116.31 118 119 121 121 122

Money Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.5 0.5 0.75
Interbank Rate (%) 0.13 0.17 0.2 0.45 0.45 0.7
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 42419.00 42215 42150 43150 43500 42150
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 8480942.00 8586458 8400000 8200000 8000000 7800000
Banks Balance Sheet (USD Billion) 22274.10 21656 21600 21050 21000 20556
Loans to Private Sector (USD Billion) 2430.19 2573 2516 2500 2550 2770
Repo Rate 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.17 0.17 0.23
Private Debt to GDP (%) 235.50 228 228 228 228 224

Trade Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -73252.00 -63000 -52000 -59000 -70000 -63000
Current Account (USD Million) -190282.00 -177000 -157000 -140000 -160000 -137000
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.10 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6
Imports (USD Million) 286991.00 275000 262000 274000 280000 269000
Exports (USD Million) 213740.00 208000 210000 215000 210000 206000
External Debt (USD Million) 22595448.00 21850000 21900000 219000000 219000000 21934407
Terms of Trade (points) 111.31 105 103 98.48 100 101
Capital Flows (USD Million) 91000.00 35000 35000 45000 50000 23000
Foreign Direct Investment (USD Million) 66844.00 53000 53000 50000 52000 54000
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 11072.00 11350 11500 11650 11900 12200
Goods Trade Balance (USD Million) -87600.00 -73000 -73000 -70000 -65000 -74500
Tourism Revenues (USD Million) 6169.00 9460 9460 9460 9460 21200
Tourist Arrivals 2002051.00 3000000 4000000 6000000 8000000 4760100

Government Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 107.60 115 118 118 118 122
Government Budget (% of GDP) -14.90 -10.2 -7.7 -7.7 -7.7 -7.7
Government Budget Value (USD Million) -61544.00 -5000 -80000 -10000 70000 -10000
Government Spending (USD Billion) 3373.77 3377 3484 3462 3441 3553
Government Revenues (USD Million) 459523.00 355000 280000 390000 390000 340000
Government Debt (USD Million) 28428919.00 28500000 286000000 28620000 28620000 29000000
Fiscal Expenditure (USD Million) 521067.00 360000 360000 400000 320000 350000
Government Spending To GDP (% of GDP) 44.00 40.3 40.3 40.3 40.3 38.4

Taxes Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 37 37 37
Sales Tax Rate (%) 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate (%) 15.30 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65

Business Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Business Confidence (points) 61.10 56.4 53 55 53 53.4
Services PMI (points) 58.20 55.5 52 53 52 50.8
Manufacturing PMI (points) 59.20 58 54.2 54 53 51
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 61.90 54 53 52 52 52
Composite PMI (points) 57.30 55.4 53 56 53 51.8
Industrial Production (%) 4.60 4 3.6 3 2 3.6
Industrial Production Mom (%) -1.30 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.3
Manufacturing Production (%) 4.80 3 3 0.5 2 0.7
Capacity Utilization (%) 75.20 76.8 77.2 77.4 77.5 77
Durable Goods Orders (%) 1.80 0.3 0.3 1 1.2 0.8
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%) 2.40 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.2 0.5
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.20 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.2
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.50 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.3
Factory Orders (%) 1.20 0.5 0.5 -0.4 0.6 0.5
Business Inventories (%) 0.60 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2
Changes in Inventories (USD Billion) -168.51 33 25 100 90 45
Wholesale Inventories (%) 1.20 1 1 0.4 0.5 0.2
Bankruptcies (Companies) 18511.00 19300 22500 23000 23500 22000
Corporate Profits (USD Billion) 2440.60 2470 2370 2400 2300 2270
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points) 99.10 99 99 95 96 102
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 23.80 15 8 10 7 5
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points) 19.80 14 14 4 6 4
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points) -3.00 12.5 3.5 5 6 2.5
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 4.60 13 17 12 10 10
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.29 0.3 0.5 1 0.9 -0.2
Chicago PMI (points) 64.70 60 58 55 52 54
Total Vehicle Sales (Million) 9.66 15.8 17.5 17.7 16 17.5
Car Production (Million Units) 1.06 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.7
Car Registrations (Thousand) 278.91 380 420 450 440 450
Crude Oil Stocks Change (BBL/1Million) -0.43 2 4 -3 -2 2.6
Gasoline Stocks Change (Thousand Barrels) -5368.00 -500 1000 -150 500 2000
Natural Gas Stocks Change (Billion cf) 92.00 -60 -120 100 100 20
Leading Economic Index (points) 129.23 127 127 125 122 128
Crude Oil Rigs 443.00 450 480 470 450 460
API Crude Oil Stock Change (BBL/1Million) 3.29 -2 4 4 4 2
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 10.00 8 8 9 6 5
Mining Production (%) 6.90 7.3 6.8 2 3 2.3
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 7500.00 7310 7210 7000 6500 6500

Consumer Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Consumer Confidence (points) 71.40 84 83 82 82 84
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.70 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.5 1
Retail Sales YoY (%) 13.90 10.8 10.8 1.5 2 1.8
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) 0.80 0.8 0.8 0.5 1 0.4
Consumer Spending (USD Billion) 13665.61 13803 13419 13562 13939 13688
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion) 18123.92 17891 17500 17000 16800 16357
Personal Spending (%) 0.80 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 1
Personal Income (%) 0.20 0.6 0.6 1 1 0.3
Personal Savings (%) 9.40 9.5 9.5 9.5 8 9.5
Consumer Credit (USD Billion) 14.38 11.38 19.8 38.95 14.81 11.6
Private Sector Credit (USD Billion) 10460.62 10000 10000 9900 11000 9900
Bank Lending Rate (%) 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.5 3.5 3.75
Economic Optimism Index 46.80 53 53 54 54 49
Redbook Index (%) 15.40 3 2.5 1.5 2 2.1
Chain Store Sales (USD Million) 3200.00 4500 3000 2800 2700 6000
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 80.00 79 79 79 79 79
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.84 0.8 0.76 0.72 0.68 0.65

Housing Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Building Permits (Thousand) 1589.00 1700 1550 1500 1450 1400
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 1555.00 1470 1400 1400 1380 1370
New Home Sales (Thousand units) 740.00 720 770 750 720 700
Pending Home Sales (%) -8.30 -1.7 -3.7 5 6 1.7
Existing Home Sales (Thousand) 6290.00 5600 5400 5500 5600 5500
Construction Spending (%) 0.00 0.6 -0.2 0.8 0.3 0.4
Housing Index (%) 1.40 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.3
Nahb Housing Market Index 80.00 77 73 75 76 63
Mortgage Rate (%) 3.23 3.3 3.4 3.4 2.8 3.5
Mortgage Applications (%) -6.30 2.6 2.6 2 2 0.6
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points) 272.34 270 269 272 273 275
Home Ownership Rate (%) 65.40 65.5 65.7 65.8 65.7 65.5


This page has economic forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy.