Markets Actual Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23
Stock Market (points) 32913.64 30892 29906 28952 28029
Currency 102.22 106 108 109 111
Government Bond 10Y (%) 3.57 3.82 3.95 4.07 4.2

Overview Actual Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23
GDP Growth Rate (%) 2.60 2.9 -0.3 -0.1 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 0.90 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.3
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.60 3.5 3.8 4 4.3
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 311.00 250 90 -50 -10
Inflation Rate (%) 6.00 5.8 4.4 3.7 3.5
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.40 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.3
Interest Rate (%) 5.00 5 5.25 5.25 5.25
Balance of Trade (USD Billion) -68.29 -61 -59 -49 -38
Current Account (USD Billion) -206.81 -200 -210 -190 -180
Services PMI (points) 53.80 53.8 50 48 52
Business Confidence (points) 47.70 49 47 46 50
Manufacturing PMI (points) 49.30 49.3 49.7 48.8 50
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 55.10 54 50 51 53
Consumer Confidence (points) 63.40 63.4 62 56 57
Retail Sales MoM (%) -0.40 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.2
Building Permits (Thousand) 1550.00 1450 1400 1450 1480
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.70 -3.2
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 129.00 133
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.80 -4.5

GDP Actual Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23
GDP Growth Rate (%) 2.60 2.9 -0.3 -0.1 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 0.90 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.3
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion) 20182.49 20203 20134 20175 20344
Gross National Product (USD Billion) 20303.89 20362 20304 20306 20466
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion) 3515.95 3679 3625 3572 3544
GDP from Agriculture (USD Billion) 201.00 211 203 201 203
GDP from Construction (USD Billion) 568.40 644 610 577 573
GDP from Manufacturing (USD Billion) 2283.40 2339 2283 2272 2302
GDP from Mining (USD Billion) 407.80 372 371 391 411
GDP from Public Administration (USD Billion) 2258.00 2276 2270 2260 2276
GDP from Services (USD Billion) 14331.40 14208 14250 14336 14446
GDP from Transport (USD Billion) 557.30 541 543 554 562
GDP from Utilities (USD Billion) 271.00 285 285 271 273
GDP (USD Billion) 23315.08 23618
GDP per Capita (USD) 61855.52 62660
GDP per Capita PPP (USD) 63669.71 64497
Full Year GDP Growth (%) 2.10 1.3

Labour Actual Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.60 3.5 3.8 4 4.3
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 311.00 250 90 -50 -10
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand) 265.00 200 85 -40 -7
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 198.00 250 280 280 220
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand) 1689.00 1750 1780 1800 1850
ADP Employment Change (Thousand) 242.00 200 90 -20 -45
Employed Persons (Thousand) 160315.00 160400 158600 156900 155500
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 5936.00 6050 6120 6100 5990
Average Hourly Earnings (%) 0.20 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 34.50 34.5 34.6 34.6 34.5
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 62.50 62.5 62.5 62.6 63
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 0.64 0.75 0.82 0.89 1
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 8.10 8 8.3 8.5 8.8
Labour Costs (points) 128.93 131 131 132 132
Productivity (points) 113.25 114 113 112 112
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 10767.00 10000 9400 8850 8000
Job Offers (Thousand) 10824.00 10200 9500 9200 9100
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 77770.00 65000 93000 96000 90000
Wages (USD/Hour) 28.42 28.61 28.58 28.74 28.89
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 25.76 26.08 25.85 26.14 26.29
Wage Growth (%) 7.86 5.5 3.8 3.2 2.5
Employment Cost Index (%) 1.00 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.5
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (%) 4.60 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.5
Employment Rate (%) 60.20 60.2 60.3 60.2 60
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 133184.00 134800 133600 131700 130900
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 27089.00 26500 26000 25500 24600
Minimum Wages (USD/Hour) 7.25 7.25
Population (Million) 334.23 335

Prices Actual Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23
Inflation Rate (%) 6.00 5.8 4.4 3.7 3.5
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.40 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.3
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 300.84 304 309 308 307
Core Consumer Prices (points) 304.07 304 308 310 312
Core Inflation Rate (%) 5.50 5 4.6 3.8 3.5
GDP Deflator (points) 129.51 131 132 133 134
Producer Prices (points) 141.08 143 144 143 143
Producer Prices Change (%) 4.60 4.2 3.1 2.2 1.5
Export Prices (points) 151.70 152 150 148 142
Import Prices (points) 141.10 144 143 140 139
Food Inflation (%) 9.50 9.2 8 7 4
PCE Price Index Annual Change (%) 5.40 4.5 3.5 3.2 2.9
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%) -0.10 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2
Core PCE Price Index Annual Change (%) 4.70 4.2 3.8 3.2 3
Core PCE Price Index MoM (%) 0.60 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2
CPI seasonally adjusted (%) 301.65 301 302 301 302
CPI Transportation (points) 259.71 259 260 259 260
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 315.43 311 314 318 322
Core PCE Price Index (points) 126.45 128 126 122 120
Core Producer Prices (points) 137.90 139 140 143 142
PCE Price Index (points) 125.90 123 121 115 114
Inflation Expectations (%) 4.20 4 3.9 3.2 3

Money Actual Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23
Interest Rate (%) 5.00 5 5.25 5.25 5.25
Interbank Rate (%) 5.16 5.3 5.4 5 4.8
Money Supply M0 (USD Million) 5328400.00 5286200 5291200 5253200 5184200
Money Supply M1 (USD Billion) 19641.00 19520 19800 19980 19400
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 37755.00 38000 39000 41000 40600
Banks Balance Sheet (USD Billion) 22860.20 23500 22800 21500 20800
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 8733787.00 8300000 8240000 8150000 8000000
Proxy Funds Rate (%) 6.10 6.1 6.35 6.35 6.35
Repo Rate 4.89 4.89 5.14 5.14 5.14

Trade Actual Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23
Balance of Trade (USD Billion) -68.29 -61 -59 -49 -38
Current Account (USD Billion) -206.81 -200 -210 -190 -180
Imports (USD Billion) 325.79 321 320 310 300
Exports (USD Billion) 257.50 260 261 261 262
Terms of Trade (points) 113.90 105 105 106 102
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 12101.00 12500 12600 12800 12600
Tourist Arrivals 5015338.00 2320000 4110000 4960000 5150000
Goods Trade Balance (USD Million) -91630.00 -89000 -92000 -98000 -94500
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.70 -3.2

Government Actual Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23
Government Spending (USD Billion) 3442.47 3441 3420 3431 3470
Government Debt (USD Million) 31459291.00 31500000 31540000 31600000 31620000
Fiscal Expenditure (USD Million) 524548.00 480000 510000 490000 510000
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 129.00 133
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.80 -4.5
Government Spending to GDP (% of GDP) 37.00 36

Business Actual Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23
Services PMI (points) 53.80 53.8 50 48 52
Business Confidence (points) 47.70 49 47 46 50
Manufacturing PMI (points) 49.30 49.3 49.7 48.8 50
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 55.10 54 50 51 53
Composite PMI (points) 53.30 53.3 50 51.4 52
Industrial Production (%) 0.30 -0.9 -0.5 -1.3 -1.1
Manufacturing Production (%) -0.20 -1.5 -1.3 -0.8 2.8
Capacity Utilization (%) 79.10 79.1 79.3 78.9 79.5
Durable Goods Orders (%) -1.00 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 0.2
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%) -0.50 0.3 -0.4 0.5 0.3
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.00 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%) 1.20 -0.1 0.6 0.3 0.2
Factory Orders (%) -1.60 0.3 -0.4 0.2 0.3
Business Inventories (%) -0.10 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1
Wholesale Inventories (%) 0.20 1 0.8 1.4 1
Bankruptcies (Companies) 13481.00 14000 15500 16800 19000
Corporate Profits (USD Billion) 2475.20 2200 2000 1900 2070
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points) 90.90 85 89 93 100
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points) -23.20 -12 3 9 15
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points) -24.60 -7 -5 -16 6
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points) -5.00 -9 5 8 5
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (points) -0.19 -0.3 0.18 0.33 0.22
Chicago PMI (points) 43.60 42 48 51 53
Car Production (Million Units) 1.71 1.6 1.55 1.65 1.8
Car Registrations (Thousand) 232.63 240 235 245 260
Total Vehicle Sales (Million) 14.89 14.5 13.2 12.8 14
Leading Economic Index (points) 136.72 132 133 134 130
ISM Manufacturing Prices (points) 51.30 51
ISM Non Manufacturing Business Activity (points) 56.30 55
ISM Non Manufacturing Employment (points) 54.00 53
ISM Non Manufacturing New Orders (points) 62.60 62
ISM Non Manufacturing Prices (points) 65.60 65
Crude Oil Rigs 593.00 580 610 625 600
Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (points) 5.50 4 7 8 11
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 3.00 -18 -5 -2 3

Consumer Actual Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23
Consumer Confidence (points) 63.40 63.4 62 56 57
Retail Sales MoM (%) -0.40 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.2
Retail Sales YoY (%) 5.40 3.2 2.1 0.5 1
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) -0.10 -0.4 -0.3 0 0.4
Consumer Spending (USD Billion) 14214.86 14225 14269 14264 14329
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion) 19594.76 18526 18710 18945 19361
Personal Spending (%) 1.80 -0.2 -0.5 0.5 0.4
Personal Income (%) 0.60 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2
Personal Savings (%) 4.70 4.5 4 3.5 2.6
Consumer Credit (USD Billion) 14.80 22.8 21.1 26.03 18.32
Bank Lending Rate (%) 7.74 8 8.2 8.1 8.1
Economic Optimism Index (points) 46.90 46 47 49 51
Retail Sales Ex Gas and Autos MoM (%) 0.00 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 0.1
Chain Store Sales (USD Million) 1849.00 2500 2450 2380 5800
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.90 0.98 1.01 1.05 1.08
Households Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 75.20 77 79 78 72

Housing Actual Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23
Building Permits (Thousand) 1550.00 1450 1400 1450 1480
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 1450.00 1300 1200 1300 1200
New Home Sales (Thousand units) 640.00 550 580 530 570
Pending Home Sales (%) -21.10 -18 5 10 11
Existing Home Sales (Thousand) 4580.00 4000 4200 4400 4520
Construction Spending (%) -0.10 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1
Housing Index (points) 393.17 385 380 375 380
Nahb Housing Market Index (points) 44.00 40 47 45 40
Mortgage Rate (%) 6.45 7 7.2 7 6.6
Case Shiller Home Price Index YoY (%) 2.50 4.6 3.5 3.1 2.8
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points) 296.88 320 330 316 307