Markets Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2022
Currency 92.91 96.06 96.48 96.91 97.33 97.33
Stock Market (points) 35025.33 33863 33072 32303 31550 30096
Government Bond 10Y (%) 1.28 1.36 1.42 1.49 1.56 1.71

Overview Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2022
GDP Growth Rate (%) 6.40 7 5.1 4 2 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 0.40 3.7 3.8 2.1 2 2
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.90 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.3 5
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 850.00 430 550 350 500 280
Inflation Rate (%) 5.40 4.2 4 3.2 3 2.6
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.90 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.7
Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -71240.00 -63000 -63000 -63000 -52000 -63000
Current Account (USD Million) -195739.00 -180000 -177000 -157000 -140000 -137000
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.10 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 107.60 115 115 118 118 122
Government Budget (% of GDP) -14.90 -10.2 -10.2 -7.7 -7.7 -7.7
Business Confidence (points) 60.60 56 53.4 53 55 53.4
Manufacturing PMI (points) 63.10 60 56 54.2 54 51
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 60.10 58 54 52 52 52
Services PMI (points) 59.80 59 55.5 52 53 50.8
Consumer Confidence (points) 80.80 82 84 83 82 84
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.60 0.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
Building Permits (Thousand) 1598.00 1470 1400 1350 1300 1300
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 28 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 37 37 37

GDP Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2022
GDP Growth Rate (%) 6.40 7 5.1 4 2 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 0.40 3.7 3.8 2.1 2 2
GDP (USD Billion) 20936.60 21500 21500 21500 21500 22790
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion) 19086.38 18756 19875 19509 19487 19899
Gross National Product (USD Billion) 19261.10 18908 20131 19706 19666 20100
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion) 3558.72 3356 3556 3590 3633 3662
GDP per capita (USD) 53748.97 56200 56200 56200 56200 55000
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 60235.73 60500 60500 60500 60500 61100
GDP From Agriculture (USD Billion) 257.50 256 225 276 263 282
GDP From Construction (USD Billion) 684.40 668 684 699 699 713
GDP From Manufacturing (USD Billion) 2269.90 2128 2266 2319 2318 2366
GDP From Mining (USD Billion) 433.60 475 455 445 443 454
GDP From Public Administration (USD Billion) 2180.80 2313 2310 2263 2227 2308
GDP From Services (USD Billion) 13167.60 12842 13580 13416 13444 13685
GDP From Transport (USD Billion) 510.20 476 578 521 521 531
GDP From Utilities (USD Billion) 286.80 321 297 300 293 306

Labour Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2022
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.90 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.3 5
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 850.00 430 550 350 500 280
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand) 662.00 320 405 280 450 400
Government Payrolls (Thousand) 188.00 50 2 2 2 60
Manufacturing Payrolls (Thousand) 15.00 10 2 2 2 2
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 419.00 350 300 300 300 270
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand) 3236.00 3260 3200 3100 2900 2500
ADP Employment Change (Thousand) 692.00 420 250 190 200 150
Employed Persons (Thousand) 151602.00 154000 155000 157000 157500 159000
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 9484.00 9100 8890 8500 8200 7800
Average Hourly Earnings (%) 0.30 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 34.70 34.7 34.6 34.8 34.6 34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 61.60 61.9 62.5 62.5 62.8 62.7
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 2.47 2.2 2 1.8 1.8 1.2
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 9.30 9 8.9 8.9 8.7 8.7
Productivity (points) 112.73 113 112 112 111 111
Labour Costs (points) 119.07 133 126 123 123 127
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 9478.00 8500 8000 7600 7500 6600
Job Offers (Thousand) 9209.00 7000 6600 6600 7000 5900
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 20476.00 35000 40000 40000 45000 55000
Wages (USD/Hour) 25.68 27.89 26.43 26.01 26 26.94
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 23.71 25.39 25.07 24.02 24.01 24.88
Wage Growth (%) 13.75 6.5 3.4 2.9 2 3.6
Minimum Wages (USD/Hour) 7.25 9.5 9.5 11 11 11
Employment Cost Index (%) 0.90 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6
Population (Million) 329.48 331 333 333 333 335
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Employment Rate (%) 58.00 59 59.4 60 60.1 61
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 126201.00 131000 133627 133627 136000 133627
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 25610.00 27500 26500 26500 26500 26500
Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Thousand) 385.25 380 350 350 320 300

Prices Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2022
Inflation Rate (%) 5.40 4.2 4 3.2 3 2.6
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.90 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.7
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 270.98 271 272 273 279 279
Core Consumer Prices (points) 278.14 279 279 281 281 284
Core Inflation Rate (%) 4.50 3.8 3.5 3.5 1.2 1.7
GDP Deflator (points) 115.59 119 119 119 119 122
Producer Prices (points) 126.00 124 123 125 128 125
Producer Prices Change (%) 7.30 4.4 2.8 1.6 1.5 1.8
Export Prices (points) 140.50 130 128 128 126 129
Import Prices (points) 134.10 128 12600 120 120 128
Food Inflation (%) 2.40 2.5 2.3 2 2 2.3
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 280.37 285 285 285 289 292
CPI Transportation (points) 237.70 211 212 223 245 217
Core Pce Price Index (points) 116.58 117 116 116 116 119
Core Producer Prices (points) 124.80 125 126 128 127 130
Inflation Expectations (%) 4.80 3.5 2.5 2.5 2 2.5
Pce Price Index (points) 114.63 114 114 114 113 116

Money Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2022
Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Interbank Rate (%) 0.14 0.15 0.17 0.2 0.2 0.25
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 141810.00 138000 130150 130150 130150 130150
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 8201651.00 8092000 8006458 7900000 7800000 7500000
Banks Balance Sheet (USD Billion) 21549.80 21000 20656 20600 20550 20556
Loans to Private Sector (USD Billion) 2487.89 2673 2673 2716 2600 2770
Private Debt to GDP (%) 235.50 228 228 228 228 224
Repo Rate 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.07 0.13

Trade Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2022
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -71240.00 -63000 -63000 -63000 -52000 -63000
Current Account (USD Million) -195739.00 -180000 -177000 -157000 -140000 -137000
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.10 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6
Imports (USD Million) 277259.00 263000 269000 262000 274999 269000
Exports (USD Million) 206018.00 203000 206000 210000 215000 206000
External Debt (USD Million) 21764799.00 21506171 21550000 21600000 216000000 21934407
Terms of Trade (points) 107.64 102 1.02 107 105 101
Capital Flows (USD Million) 105300.00 47000 35000 35000 45000 23000
Foreign Direct Investment (USD Million) 53916.00 52000 53000 53000 45000 54000
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 11169.00 12200 13000 13500 14000 14000
Goods Trade Balance (USD Million) -88110.00 -80000 -73000 -73000 -70000 -74500
Tourism Revenues (USD Million) 5480.00 8920 9460 9460 9460 21200
Tourist Arrivals 1064726.00 2000000 2000100 2000100 2000100 4760100

Government Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2022
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 107.60 115 115 118 118 122
Government Budget (% of GDP) -14.90 -10.2 -10.2 -7.7 -7.7 -7.7
Government Budget Value (USD Million) -174161.00 -125000 -140000 -110000 -30000 -10000
Government Spending (USD Billion) 3366.94 3652 3377 3447 3438 3515
Government Revenues (USD Million) 449000.00 360000 310000 280000 320000 340000
Government Debt (USD Million) 28529436.00 28300000 28500000 286000000 28620000 29000000
Fiscal Expenditure (USD Million) 623359.00 485000 450000 390000 350000 350000
Government Spending To GDP (% of GDP) 44.00 40.3 40.3 40.3 40.3 38.4
Military Expenditure (USD Million) 766583.00 771394 771394 771394 771394 771394

Taxes Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2022
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 28 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 37 37 37
Sales Tax Rate (%) 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate (%) 15.30 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65

Business Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2022
Business Confidence (points) 60.60 56 53.4 53 55 53.4
Manufacturing PMI (points) 63.10 60 56 54.2 54 51
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 60.10 58 54 52 52 52
Services PMI (points) 59.80 59 55.5 52 53 50.8
Composite PMI (points) 59.70 58 55.4 53 56 50.8
Industrial Production (%) 9.80 6.5 4 3.6 3 3.6
Industrial Production Mom (%) 0.40 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3
Manufacturing Production (%) 9.80 5.9 3 3 0.5 0.7
Capacity Utilization (%) 75.40 76 76.6 77.2 77.4 78
Durable Goods Orders (%) 2.30 1.7 0.3 0.3 1 0.3
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%) 1.70 1.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.30 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.70 1.2 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.3
Factory Orders (%) 1.70 0.7 0.5 0.5 -0.4 0.5
Business Inventories (%) 0.50 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2
Changes in Inventories (USD Billion) -86.98 47 33 25 100 45
Wholesale Inventories (%) 1.30 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2
Bankruptcies (Companies) 19911.00 22000 23300 22500 23000 22000
Corporate Profits (USD Billion) 1983.80 1950 1870 1870 1900 1870
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points) 102.50 100 99 99 95 102
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points) 43.00 12 8 8 4 4
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 21.90 15 5 5 5 5
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 22.00 3 2.5 2.5 5 2.5
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 31.10 26 13 17 12 10
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.09 0.8 0.3 0.5 1 -0.2
Chicago PMI (points) 66.10 65 60 52 55 54
Total Vehicle Sales (Million) 15.36 17.1 17.1 17.5 17.7 17.5
Car Production (Million Units) 1.41 1.8 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.5
Car Registrations (Thousand) 386.98 350 330 420 450 450
Crude Oil Stocks Change (BBL/1Million) 2.11 -5 -5 -5 -5 2.6
Gasoline Stocks Change (Thousand Barrels) -121.00 -15 -15 -15 -15 2000
Natural Gas Stocks Change (Billion cf) 49.00 75 -60 -120 100 20
Leading Economic Index (points) 127.21 131 127 127 125 128
Crude Oil Rigs 387.00 390 400 380 370 390
API Crude Oil Stock Change (BBL/1Million) 0.81 -5 -2 4 4 2
Mining Production (%) 17.80 4 2.3 2.3 2 2.3
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 41.00 18 8 8 9 5
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 7200.00 7110 7010 7010 6810 7350

Consumer Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2022
Consumer Confidence (points) 80.80 82 84 83 82 84
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.60 0.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
Retail Sales YoY (%) 18.00 3.4 2.8 2.8 1.5 1.8
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) 1.30 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4
Consumer Spending (USD Billion) 13353.33 12857 13803 13493 13634 13763
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion) 18419.11 17508 17891 17500 17000 18357
Personal Spending (%) 0.00 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 1
Personal Income (%) -2.00 0.6 0.6 0.6 1 0.3
Personal Savings (%) 12.40 10 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5
Consumer Credit (USD Billion) 35.28 17.88 16.27 18.97 18.98 12.09
Private Sector Credit (USD Billion) 10349.75 107000 9900 9900 9900 9900
Bank Lending Rate (%) 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
Economic Optimism Index 54.30 53 53 53 54 49
Redbook Index (%) 15.00 2 3 0.5 0.5 2.1
Chain Store Sales (USD Million) 2646.00 2500 5500 3000 2800 6000
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 79.50 79 79 79 79 79
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.81 0.77 0.73 0.7 0.66 0.63

Housing Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2022
Building Permits (Thousand) 1598.00 1470 1400 1350 1300 1300
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 1643.00 1450 1370 1300 1300 1270
New Home Sales (Thousand units) 769.00 780 800 770 750 650
Pending Home Sales (%) 13.10 4 1.7 1.7 1 1.7
Existing Home Sales (Thousand) 5860.00 5800 5600 5400 5500 4700
Construction Spending (%) -0.30 0.6 0.6 -0.2 0.8 0.4
Housing Index (%) 1.80 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3
Nahb Housing Market Index 80.00 76 75 73 75 63
Mortgage Rate (%) 3.11 3.35 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5
Mortgage Applications (%) -4.00 2.6 2.6 2.6 2 0.6
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points) 257.10 257 265 270 270 275
Home Ownership Rate (%) 65.60 64.5 64.5 64.5 64.5 64.5


This page has economic forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy.