The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.05 in October of 2022 from an upwardly revised +0.17 in September, the weakest reading in four months, suggesting slower national economic growth. Production-related indicators contributed -0.05 down slightly from -0.02 in September; the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category also moved down to -0.01 from +0.07; and employment-related indicators contributed -0.02, compared to +0.10. On the other hand, the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category ticked up to +0.03 from +0.02. Meanwhile, the index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, which provides a more consistent picture of national economic growth, edged down to +0.09 from +0.19. The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to +0.13 from +0.25. source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0.00 points from 1967 until 2022, reaching an all time high of 6.12 points in June of 2020 and a record low of -17.96 points in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on November of 2022.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be -0.20 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around 0.22 points in 2023 and 0.10 points in 2024, according to our econometric models.

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United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index



Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2022-10-24 12:30 PM Sep 0.1 0.1 0.12
2022-11-21 01:30 PM Oct -0.05 0.17 0.1
2022-12-22 01:30 PM Nov -0.05 -0.18


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.05 0.17 points Oct 2022

United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is based on a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It has an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative reading corresponds to growth below trend.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-0.05 0.17 6.12 -17.96 1967 - 2022 points Monthly
NSA

News Stream
US Economic Activity Weakens in October
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.05 in October of 2022 from an upwardly revised +0.17 in September, the weakest reading in four months, indicating slower national economic growth. Production-related indicators contributed -0.05 down slightly from -0.02 in September; the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category also moved down to -0.01 from +0.07; and employment-related indicators contributed -0.02, compared to +0.10. On the other hand, the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category ticked up to +0.03 from +0.02. Meanwhile, the index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, which provides a more consistent picture of national economic growth, edged down to +0.09 from +0.19. The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to +0.13 from +0.25.
2022-11-21
Chicago Fed Activity Index Remains Stable
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index held steady at +0.10 in September 2022, unchanged from the previous month's revised figure and pointing to a modest growth in overall economic activity. Production-related indicators contributed +0.07 to the CFNAI in September (vs -0.02 in August) due to a rebound in industrial activity, and employment-related indicators contributed +0.06 (vs -0.05 in August) as the unemployment rate declined to 3.5 percent, a 40-year low. On the other hand, the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI decreased to -0.01 in September (vs +0.15 in August), while that of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI edged down to -0.01 (vs +0.02 in August).
2022-10-24
US Economic Growth Moderated in August
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to 0 in August of 2022 from a five-month high of 0.29 in July, pointing to a moderation in overall economic growth. Production-related indicators led the decline (contribution fell to -0.08 from +0.12 in July). Also, the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category ticked down to +0.01 from +0.03 and employment-related indicators contributed +0.03, down from +0.12. On the other hand, the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category moved up to +0.05 from +0.01. Meanwhile, the index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, which provides a more consistent picture of national economic growth, edged higher to +0.01 from -0.08. The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to +0.11 from +0.01 in July. Both indicators signal that the US economy continued to expand in the three months to August.
2022-09-26