The Chicago Fed National Activity Index declined to -0.19 in February 2023 from +0.23 in January. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions, and three categories deteriorated from January. Production-related indicators contributed -0.08, down from +0.15 in January; employment-related indicators contributed -0.02, down from +0.10; and the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category decreased to -0.08 from +0.10. On the other hand, the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories moved up to -0.02 from -0.12 in the previous month. The three-month moving average improved to -0.13 in February from -0.27 in January. The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved up to +0.02 in February from -0.07 in January. source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0.00 points from 1967 until 2023, reaching an all time high of 6.14 points in June of 2020 and a record low of -18.01 points in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on March of 2023.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be -0.30 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations.

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United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index



Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2023-02-23 01:30 PM Jan 0.23 -0.46 -0.25
2023-03-23 12:30 PM Feb -0.19 0.23 0.26
2023-04-24 12:30 PM Mar -0.19 -0.3


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.19 0.23 points Feb 2023

United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is based on a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It has an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative reading corresponds to growth below trend.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-0.19 0.23 6.14 -18.01 1967 - 2023 points Monthly
NSA

News Stream
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Falls
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index declined to -0.19 in February 2023 from +0.23 in January. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions, and three categories deteriorated from January. Production-related indicators contributed -0.08, down from +0.15 in January; employment-related indicators contributed -0.02, down from +0.10; and the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category decreased to -0.08 from +0.10. On the other hand, the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories moved up to -0.02 from -0.12 in the previous month. The three-month moving average improved to -0.13 in February from -0.27 in January. The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved up to +0.02 in February from -0.07 in January.
2023-03-23
US Economic Activity Rebounds in January
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.23 in January 2023 from a downwardly revised -0.46 in December, indicating an upturn in US economic activity. It follows three consecutive months of contraction and marks the highest reading since last July. Production-related indicators contributed +0.04 to the CFNAI in January, up from –0.56 in December; employment-related indicators contributed +0.12, up slightly from +0.09; and the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category increased to +0.13 from –0.06 in December. On the other hand, the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category decreased to –0.06 in January from +0.07 in the previous month. Meanwhile, the index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, which provides a more consistent picture of national economic growth, moved up to –0.26 in January from –0.34 in December. The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, edged up to –0.10 from –0.15 in December
2023-02-23
US Economic Activity Downturn Softens in December
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index edged up to -0.49 in December of 2022 from -0.51 in November, indicating a softer economic contraction in the US economic activity. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI in December moved up to -0.01 from -0.07; and employment-related indicators contributed +0.02, up from -0.03 in November. On the other hand, production-related indicators contributed -0.43, down from -0.35; and the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category also ticked down to -0.07 from -0.05 in November. Meanwhile, the index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, which provides a more consistent picture of national economic growth, decreased to -0.33 in December from -0.14. The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, fell to -0.13 from a neutral value in November.
2023-01-26