Markets Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Currency 1.09 1.07 1.05 1.04 1.02 0.99
Stock Market (points) 7025.56 6823 6634 6449 6270 5927
Government Bond 10Y (%) 4.01 4.05 4.29 4.54 4.81 5.39

Overview Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
GDP Growth Rate (%) -0.10 -0.1 -1 0.5 0.2 0.1
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 2.90 1.3 0.1 -1 -1.5 0.1
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.60 3.7 4 4.2 4.3 4.5
Inflation Rate (%) 9.90 9.9 11.1 10.9 10 6.4
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.50 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4
Interest Rate (%) 2.25 2.75 4.5 5 5.5 6.25
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -7793.00 -5800 -6800 -1000 600 1500
Current Account (GBP Million) -51700.00 -45400 -33200 -24600 -19400 -25500
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -2.60 -5.3 -5.3 -4.8 -4.8 -4.8
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 95.90 95.5 95.5 94.1 94.1 94.1
Government Budget (% of GDP) -6.00 -3.9 -3.9 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9
Business Confidence (points) -21.00 -45 -30 -25 5 7
Manufacturing PMI (points) 48.50 48.5 49 50.3 50.8 52.9
Services PMI (points) 49.20 49.2 52 51.4 52.4 53.6
Consumer Confidence (points) -49.00 -35 -25 -19 -5 5
Retail Sales MoM (%) -1.60 -0.9 0.7 1 1 0.4
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 19 19 25
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45

GDP Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
GDP Growth Rate (%) -0.10 -0.1 -1 0.5 0.2 0.1
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 2.90 1.3 0.1 -1 -1.5 0.1
GDP (USD Billion) 3186.86 3200 3200 3400 3400 3400
GDP Constant Prices (GBP Million) 568719.00 564950 565377 563490 560188 565942
Gross National Product (GBP Million) 608636.00 587621 606949 602550 599506 607556
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GBP Million) 101351.00 97313 97190 99779 99831 97287
GDP per Capita (USD) 46209.11 41900 41900 42700 42700 42700
GDP per Capita PPP (USD) 45839.15 44910 44910 46700 46700 46700
Monthly GDP MoM (%) 0.20 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.4
Monthly GDP YoY (%) 2.30 1.5 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.5
Full Year GDP Growth (%) 7.40 3 3 0.2 0.2 0.2
GDP from Agriculture (GBP Million) 3362.00 3198 3345 3328 3312 3349
GDP from Construction (GBP Million) 32051.00 31198 30904 31730 31570 30935
GDP from Manufacturing (GBP Million) 49900.00 49260 49314 49401 49152 49364
GDP from Mining (GBP Million) 3948.00 4181 3961 3909 3889 3965
GDP from Public Administration (GBP Million) 25177.00 25803 25433 24925 24799 25459
GDP from Services (GBP Million) 406933.00 404392 405517 402864 400829 405923
GDP from Transport (GBP Million) 20778.00 18774 20079 20570 20466 20099

Labour Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.60 3.7 4 4.2 4.3 4.5
Employed Persons (Thousand) 32792.00 32880 32980 33000 33075 33240
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 1534.20 1520 1500 1490 1480 1400
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 8168.00 8140 8200 8300 8400 8500
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 24578.00 24650 24700 24800 24700 24800
Employment Rate (%) 75.40 75.5 75.9 76.2 76.2 76.3
Claimant Count Change (Thousand) 6.30 10 16 12 -15 -5
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 78.30 78.5 78.6 78.6 78.8 79
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 9.10 9.2 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.8
Productivity (points) 101.70 102 103 103 103 103
Labour Costs (points) 109.60 116 115 114 113 118
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 1266.00 1220 1180 1050 980 850
Wages (GBP/Week) 613.00 616 630 640 632 648
Wages in Manufacturing (GBP/Week) 666.00 673 688 701 685 707
Wage Growth (%) 5.50 5.5 5 4.2 3.2 2.8
Minimum Wages (GBP/Hour) 9.50 9.52 9.52 9.52 9.52 10.14
Population (Million) 67.53 67.44 67.44 67.95 67.95 67.95
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Employment Change (Thousand) 40.00 45 36 30 26 25
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 31.80 32 31.2 32 31.9 31.9

Prices Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Inflation Rate (%) 9.90 9.9 11.1 10.9 10 6.4
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.50 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 123.15 124 128 130 134 136
Harmonised Consumer Prices (points) 123.15 124 128 130 134 136
Core Consumer Prices (points) 119.49 121 125 124 123 128
Core Inflation Rate (%) 6.30 7.5 8.5 6.7 4.2 2.8
GDP Deflator (points) 110.35 115 118 121 121 126
Producer Prices Change (%) 16.10 14.9 12.6 10.2 8.2 4.5
Food Inflation (%) 13.10 14.2 12.8 10 8 2
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%) -0.10 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
Core Producer Prices MoM (%) 0.30 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5
Core Producer Prices YoY (%) 13.70 12.7 11.5 10 8 5.5
Inflation Expectations (%) 6.30 7.2 8.4 6.5 5.5 2.3
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 129.81 119 125 126 142 133
CPI Transportation (points) 137.44 138 138 139 140 140
Core Producer Prices (points) 132.00 132 134 137 141 141
Retail Price Index (%) 12.30 15 19 15.6 12 8.5
Producer Prices (points) 133.10 133 134 137 142 140

Money Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Interest Rate (%) 2.25 2.75 4.5 5 5.5 6.25
Interbank Rate (%) 3.75 4.25 6 6.5 7 7.25
Money Supply M0 (GBP Million) 94708.00 94400 94900 95100 96700 95100
Money Supply M1 (GBP Million) 2460186.00 2460500 2463800 2482000 2500000 2420800
Money Supply M2 (GBP Million) 3082372.00 3089600 3099100 3109100 3169100 3129100
Money Supply M3 (GBP Million) 3578663.00 3590000 3600000 3612000 3620000 3660000
Central Bank Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 1077141.00 1092400 1096500 1097100 1098000 1099100
Banks Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 4522767.00 4529000 4532000 4555000 4585000 4620000
Loans to Private Sector (GBP Million) 2698489.00 2784000 2810000 2840000 2840000 2910000
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 1.00 1.5 3.25 3.75 4.25 4.5
Lending Rate (%) 1.50 2 3.75 4.25 4.75 5
Private Debt to GDP (%) 183.90 215 215 211 211 211

Trade Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -7793.00 -5800 -6800 -1000 600 1500
Current Account (GBP Million) -51700.00 -45400 -33200 -24600 -19400 -25500
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -2.60 -5.3 -5.3 -4.8 -4.8 -4.8
Imports (GBP Million) 68844.00 67900 69500 64200 62200 61100
Exports (GBP Million) 61051.00 62100 62700 63200 62800 62600
External Debt (GBP Million) 7317114.00 7349000 7277000 7304000 7304000 7429000
Capital Flows (GBP Million) 29124.00 12700 11600 15500 16500 17500
Foreign Direct Investment (GBP Million) -2198.00 -6800 10500 -5600 17600 12600
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 310.29 310 310 310 310 310
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 768.00 800 820 810 840 850
Goods Trade Balance Non-EU (GBP Million) -10194.00 -7800 -8100 -7700 -7700 -8600
Goods Trade Balance (GBP Million) -19362.00 -18200 -17800 -15600 -14600 -16700
Tourism Revenues (GBP Million) 2110.00 2000 1800 1700 2090 2300
Tourist Arrivals (Thousand) 2730.00 2500 2200 2200 2750 2500

Government Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 95.90 95.5 95.5 94.1 94.1 94.1
Government Budget (% of GDP) -6.00 -3.9 -3.9 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9
Government Budget Value (GBP Million) -11820.00 -5200 -23300 -29710 -24710 -7500
Government Spending (GBP Million) 112261.00 117031 117338 114506 110577 117456
Government Spending to GDP (% of GDP) 44.60 43.2 43.2 42 42 42
Government Debt (GBP Billion) 2427.50 2410 2440 2490 2490 2510
Fiscal Expenditure (GBP Million) 73164.00 82600 95900 92460 85460 80700
Government Revenues (GBP Million) 69625.00 77400 72600 62750 60750 73200
Asylum Applications (persons) 15452.00 12600 9900 8650 7240 7100

Taxes Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 19 19 25
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate (%) 20.00 20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate (%) 27.80 29.05 29.05 29.05 29.05 29.05
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 13.80 14.43 14.43 14.43 14.43 14.43
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 14.00 14.63 14.63 14.63 14.63 14.63

Business Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Business Confidence (points) -21.00 -45 -30 -25 5 7
Manufacturing PMI (points) 48.50 48.5 49 50.3 50.8 52.9
Services PMI (points) 49.20 49.2 52 51.4 52.4 53.6
Industrial Production (%) 1.10 0.5 -1.4 -1.2 -1.8 1.3
Industrial Production Mom (%) -0.30 -1 -0.7 0.2 0.4 0.5
Manufacturing Production (%) 1.10 0.2 -1.7 -1.4 -2.1 1.5
Factory Orders (Net Balance) -2.00 -15 -12 -6 1 5
New Orders (GBP Million) 11617.00 13200 13600 13800 13800 14180
Bankruptcies (Companies) 5629.00 5200 5100 4900 4300 3900
Corporate Profits (GBP Million) 134096.00 130000 139000 141000 143000 145000
Car Production (Units) 58043.00 68000 57000 70800 75500 99000
Car Registrations 68858.00 217000 108000 250000 150000 110000
Small Business Sentiment -18.00 11 -12 -5 10 19
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (%) 0.50 1.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 1.9
Electricity Price (GBP/MWh) 299.20 733 1032 1453 2047 4059
Manufacturing Production MoM (Percent) 0.10 -1.1 -0.9 -0.2 0.5 0.3
Leading Economic Index (%) 0.00 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3
Mining Production (%) 6.10 32 2.3 2.6 2.6 2
Composite PMI (points) 48.40 48.4 50.5 51.8 52.2 53.4
Private Investment (%) 3.80 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.7

Consumer Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Consumer Confidence (points) -49.00 -35 -25 -19 -5 5
Retail Sales MoM (%) -1.60 -0.9 0.7 1 1 0.4
Retail Sales YoY (%) -5.40 -4 -3.4 3.2 3 2.6
Consumer Spending (GBP Million) 358328.00 359605 357017 354951 352953 357374
Disposable Personal Income (GBP Million) 373440.00 381880 374529 369706 367838 374904
Personal Savings (%) 6.60 6.6 7 6.4 6.4 6
Bank Lending Rate (%) 3.25 3.75 5.5 6 6.5 6.75
Households Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 84.90 88 88 85 85 85
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.99 2.07 2.15 2.23 2.31 2.31
Consumer Credit (GBP Million) 1425.00 380 995 1275 1754 996
Cbi Distributive Trades (Net Balance) -20.00 -20 -45 -23 -17 -11

Housing Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Housing Starts (units) 51730.00 45800 42710 50200 50200 44710
Construction Output (%) 4.30 4.2 3.8 3.6 2.4 4.2
Housing Index (points) 507.42 512 512 510 527 530
Mortgage Approvals (Thousand) 63.77 62 61 60 56 62
House Price Index MoM (%) 0.40 1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5
House Price Index YoY (%) 11.50 11.1 7.6 4.5 3.6 3.4
Home Loans (GBP Million) 5051.00 4400 2900 3200 3200 3600
Home Ownership Rate (%) 65.20 65 65 64.5 64.5 64.5
Mortgage Rate (%) 4.89 5.39 7.14 7.64 8.14 8.89
Nationwide Housing Prices (points) 546.08 551 547 553 561 566
Construction PMI (points) 49.20 49 48.5 50.8 51.7 52.9
Construction Orders (%) -12.09 5.1 -10.4 -8 8.5 3.6


Trading Economics provides data for 20 million economic indicators from 196 countries including actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, historical time series and news. United Kingdom Forecast - was last updated on Wednesday, September 28, 2022.