Markets Actual Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24
Currency 1.25 1.22 1.19 1.17 1.15
Stock Market (points) 7615.70 7432 7261 7095 6931
Government Bond 10Y (%) 4.28 4.33 4.51 4.69 4.89

Overview Actual Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.10 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 0.20 -0.8 -0.6 0.1 0.5
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.90 4 4.2 4.4 4.4
Inflation Rate (%) 8.70 7.5 5.8 3.9 2.7
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 1.20 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5
Interest Rate (%) 4.50 4.75 5 5 4.75
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -2864.00 600 -3582 -4343 -1100
Current Account (GBP Million) -2483.00 -15100 -16300 -21680 -23329
Business Confidence (points) -2.00 -15 5 7 2
Manufacturing PMI (points) 47.10 46.5 50.5 51.3 52.2
Services PMI (points) 55.20 54.4 52.6 52.3 52
Consumer Confidence (points) -27.00 -29 -31 -27 -20
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.50 -0.2 -1.1 -2 0.2
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -5.60 -4.8
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 100.60 103
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.50 -5.1

GDP Actual Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.10 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 0.20 -0.8 -0.6 0.1 0.5
GDP Constant Prices (GBP Million) 558705.00 553348 553942 558563 561499
Gross National Product (GBP Million) 649370.00 622253 626260 650019 652617
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GBP Million) 105511.00 101910 103235 104233 106039
Monthly GDP MoM (%) -0.30 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2
Monthly GDP YoY (%) 0.30 0.9 1 0.7 0.9
GDP from Agriculture (GBP Million) 3566.00 3555 3561 3568 3584
GDP from Construction (GBP Million) 33203.00 32113 32356 32997 33369
GDP from Manufacturing (GBP Million) 51345.00 51396 50516 51140 51602
GDP from Mining (GBP Million) 4367.00 4728 4684 4602 4389
GDP from Public Administration (GBP Million) 24760.00 24393 24721 24962 24884
GDP from Services (GBP Million) 394727.00 390290 391739 394764 396701
GDP from Transport (GBP Million) 17322.00 17360 17903 17506 17409
GDP (USD Billion) 3131.38 3080
GDP per Capita (USD) 45101.54 42700
GDP per Capita PPP (USD) 44978.71 46700
Full Year GDP Growth (%) 4.10 -0.2

Labour Actual Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.90 4 4.2 4.4 4.4
Employed Persons (Thousand) 32995.00 33070 32900 32950 32970
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 1572.40 1580 1570 1560 1555
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 8458.00 8430 8442 8415 8420
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 24537.00 24460 24455 24490 24500
Employment Rate (%) 75.90 76 75.9 75.7 75.5
Claimant Count Change (Thousand) 46.70 -22 -15 -5 10
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 79.00 78.8 78.9 78.9 78.8
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 11.30 11.4 11.6 11.8 11.8
Productivity (points) 102.10 102 103 103 103
Labour Costs (points) 111.50 116 115 115 114
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 1083.00 1090 950 850 800
Wages (GBP/Week) 642.00 638 642 652 658
Wages in Manufacturing (GBP/Week) 708.00 692 700 712 726
Wage Growth (%) 5.80 4.2 3.4 3.2 2.5
Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (%) 6.70 5.5 5.1 4.5 3.6
Employment Change (Thousand) 182.00 26 50 25 12
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 31.90 32 32.1 31.9 31.7
Minimum Wages (GBP/Hour) 9.50 10.42
Population (Million) 67.53 67.98

Prices Actual Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24
Inflation Rate (%) 8.70 7.5 5.8 3.9 2.7
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 1.20 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 130.43 131 131 132 132
Harmonised Consumer Prices (points) 130.43 131 131 132 132
Core Consumer Prices (points) 125.07 125 127 128 129
Core Inflation Rate (%) 6.80 5.7 5.4 5 4.5
GDP Deflator (points) 115.63 119 119 119 119
Producer Prices Change (%) 5.40 3.2 -2 -10 -3.6
Food Inflation (%) 19.00 16 7 4 3
PPI Input (%) -0.30 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1
PPI Input YoY (%) 3.90 -1.6 -14 -6.3 -2
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%) 0.00 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2
Core Producer Prices MoM (%) 0.00 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4
Core Producer Prices YoY (%) 6.00 2.5 -1.6 -4.6 -3.2
Core Inflation Rate MoM (%) 1.30 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5
Inflation Expectations (%) 5.20 4.6 3.2 2.3 2.5
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 144.08 139 138 147 147
CPI Transportation (points) 134.91 135 136 136 137
Core Producer Prices (points) 135.20 134 131 128 131
Retail Price Index (%) 11.40 11.6 11.2 10.5 9.4
Producer Prices (points) 136.40 139 134 123 131

Money Actual Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24
Interest Rate (%) 4.50 4.75 5 5 4.75
Interbank Rate (%) 4.92 5.17 5.42 5.42 5.17
Money Supply M2 (GBP Million) 3061003.00 3095000 3100600 3125000 3139000
Banks Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 4403720.00 4485000 4475000 4532000 4570000
Loans to Private Sector (GBP Million) 2770203.00 2710243 2753582 2772973 2784054
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 4.00 4.25 4.5 4.5 4.25
Lending Rate (%) 4.25 4.5 4.75 4.75 4.5
Private Debt to GDP (%) 194.10 192

Trade Actual Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -2864.00 600 -3582 -4343 -1100
Current Account (GBP Million) -2483.00 -15100 -16300 -21680 -23329
Imports (GBP Million) 69801.00 66700 70200 72500 71100
Exports (GBP Million) 66937.00 67300 66618 68157 70000
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 800.00 655 680 700 705
Goods Trade Balance (GBP Million) -16356.00 -15200 -14200 -13600 -14100
Tourist Arrivals (Thousand) 3180.00 3050 3100 3200 2400
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -5.60 -4.8

Government Actual Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24
Government Budget Value (GBP Million) -25560.00 -28600 -24300 -22400 -26000
Government Spending (GBP Million) 110602.00 111054 112114 113496 111155
Government Debt (GBP Billion) 2536.90 2500 2470 2510 2500
Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP Million) -24739.00 -18200 -17600 -14300 -10600
Fiscal Expenditure (GBP Million) 103020.00 109100 110200 111500 117500
Government Revenues (GBP Million) 77460.00 80500 85900 89100 91500
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 100.60 103
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.50 -5.1
Government Spending to GDP (% of GDP) 44.70 47.2

Business Actual Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24
Business Confidence (points) -2.00 -15 5 7 2
Manufacturing PMI (points) 47.10 46.5 50.5 51.3 52.2
Services PMI (points) 55.20 54.4 52.6 52.3 52
Industrial Production (%) -2.00 -1.8 1 1.3 1.8
Industrial Production Mom (%) 0.70 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.3
Manufacturing Production (%) -1.30 -0.8 0.9 1.5 2.8
Factory Orders (Net Balance) -17.00 1 4 5 5
Bankruptcies (Companies) 5747.00 5800 4200 3900 3600
Corporate Profits (GBP Million) 159494.00 143000 140000 145000 145000
Car Production (Units) 66527.00 75500 70000 65000 72000
Car Registrations (Units) 145204.00 150000 200000 110000 240000
Small Business Sentiment (points) 3.00 10 12 19 19
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (%) 3.70 3.7 2 3.9 1.5
Leading Economic Index (%) 0.10 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3
Mining Production (%) -11.60 -5.6 -2 -2.3 1.8
Composite PMI (points) 54.00 53.2 51.9 51.7 51.5
Private Investment (%) 0.70 1.2 0.3 0.7 0.5

Consumer Actual Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24
Consumer Confidence (points) -27.00 -29 -31 -27 -20
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.50 -0.2 -1.1 -2 0.2
Retail Sales YoY (%) -3.00 -1.7 3.5 3.3 2.6
Consumer Spending (GBP Million) 351235.00 348328 348125 351409 352991
Disposable Personal Income (GBP Million) 362869.00 355005 354519 363232 364683
Personal Savings (%) 9.40 6.2 5.8 5.6 5.8
Bank Lending Rate (%) 5.50 5.75 6 6 5.75
Net Lending to Individuals MoM (GBP Million) 200.00 1300 500 150 1100
Households Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 84.50 85 86 86 88
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.16 1.2 1.24 1.27 1.31
Consumer Credit (GBP Million) 1586.00 1660 707 870 1623
Cbi Distributive Trades (Net Balance) -10.00 0 -15 -11 -11

Housing Actual Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24
Housing Starts (units) 39220.00 48700 39800 37600 36200
Construction Output (%) 4.10 3.7 2.5 1.2 0.8
Housing Index (points) 494.72 498 492 468 497
Mortgage Approvals (Thousand) 48.69 49 55 62 65
House Price Index YoY (%) -1.00 -1.7 -2.9 -3.7 0.2
Home Loans (GBP Million) -1384.00 300 1000 2600 2700
Mortgage Rate (%) 7.44 6.2 6.3 6.5 7.69
Nationwide Housing Prices (points) 520.14 533 527 503 514
Construction PMI (points) 51.60 51.7 53.2 52.9 52.9
Construction Orders (%) -14.30 8.5 6 3.6 3.6