Markets Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Currency 1.37 1.37 1.36 1.35 1.34 1.33
Stock Market (points) 7238.95 7065 6896 6730 6569 6257
Government Bond 10Y (%) 1.10 1.21 1.33 1.47 1.61 1.95

Overview Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
GDP Growth Rate (%) 5.50 1 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.9
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 23.60 4.7 6.8 5.1 4 3.6
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.50 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.3
Inflation Rate (%) 3.20 4 4.2 2.9 2.2 1.7
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.70 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4
Interest Rate (%) 0.10 0.25 0.25 0.5 0.5 0.75
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -3716.00 -100 -400 -600 -800 -800
Current Account (GBP Million) -8605.00 -27400 -18700 -17400 -22300 -22600
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.50 -4.8 -4.6 -4.6 -4.6 -4.6
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 97.20 107 109 109 109 109
Government Budget (% of GDP) -14.20 -10.3 -4.4 -4.4 -4.4 -4.4
Business Confidence (points) 27.00 15 20 12 11 5
Services PMI (points) 55.40 54.5 55.2 54.4 53.8 54
Manufacturing PMI (points) 57.10 56.4 55.1 55.4 54.2 53.6
Consumer Confidence (points) -13.00 5 1 4 2 -2
Retail Sales MoM (%) -0.90 0.6 1.2 1 -0.9 0.7
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 19 19 19
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45

GDP Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
GDP Growth Rate (%) 5.50 1 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.9
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 23.60 4.7 6.8 5.1 4 3.6
GDP (USD Billion) 2707.74 2860 3200 3200 3200 3200
GDP Constant Prices (GBP Million) 546556.00 534316 549822 553222 574430 569615
Gross National Product (GBP Million) 572325.00 551136 576677 597355 601514 597438
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GBP Million) 94508.00 89277 101158 100090 99328 104800
GDP per capita (USD) 39102.90 41100 41900 41900 41900 41900
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 41627.13 43200 44910 44910 44910 44910
Economic Activity Index (%) 6.90 6.5 4 4.5 5.1 4.8
GDP From Agriculture (GBP Million) 3146.00 3013 3279 3258 3306 3397
GDP From Construction (GBP Million) 31269.00 29549 30853 32175 32864 31964
GDP From Manufacturing (GBP Million) 49036.00 47276 50941 51436 51537 52775
GDP From Mining (GBP Million) 3347.00 5003 4395 4251 3518 4554
GDP From Public Administration (GBP Million) 25379.00 21877 26371 26999 26673 27320
GDP From Services (GBP Million) 392539.00 382166 393016 393743 412558 407164
GDP From Transport (GBP Million) 17664.00 20938 18344 18391 18565 19005

Labour Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.50 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.3
Employed Persons (Thousand) 32416.00 32600 32700 32680 32800 32850
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 2112.80 2050 2110 2220 2030 1980
Employment Rate (%) 75.30 75.8 75.7 75.8 75.9 76.2
Claimant Count Change (Thousand) -51.10 -32 45 45 -30 -26
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 78.90 79 79 79.1 79.2 79.2
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 12.20 12.8 12.6 12.4 12.1 12
Labour Costs (points) 107.30 113 114 111 111 116
Productivity (points) 101.70 102 102 102 102 103
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 1102.00 1050 950 840 750 760
Wages (GBP/Week) 581.00 589 590 597 598 606
Wages in Manufacturing (GBP/Week) 638.00 654 654 659 657 672
Wage Growth (%) 7.20 3.6 3.8 3.4 3 2.8
Minimum Wages (GBP/Hour) 8.91 8.91 8.91 9.15 9.15 9.15
Population (Million) 67.20 67.5 67.81 67.81 67.81 67.81
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 31.50 31 31 32 32 32
Employment Change (Thousand) 235.00 50 75 45 36 30

Prices Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Inflation Rate (%) 3.20 4 4.2 2.9 2.2 1.7
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.70 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 112.09 114 114 115 115 115
Harmonised Consumer Prices (points) 112.09 114 114 115 115 115
Core Consumer Prices (points) 112.50 114 113 112 113 115
Core Inflation Rate (%) 3.10 2.3 1.6 1.5 1.7 2.1
GDP Deflator (points) 105.72 110 113 109 108 112
Producer Prices Change (%) 5.90 5.4 2.5 1.8 2 2.3
Food Inflation (%) 0.30 1 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.8
Inflation Expectations (%) 4.10 3.4 3.2 3 2.7 2.4
Retail Price Index (%) 4.80 3.4 3.6 3.2 2.9 2.6
Producer Prices (points) 114.40 123 115 113 115 117
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 108.20 109 110 111 111 111
CPI Transportation (points) 122.70 123 123 124 124 125
Core Producer Prices (points) 115.90 121 117 114 116 119

Money Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Interest Rate (%) 0.10 0.25 0.25 0.5 0.5 0.75
Interbank Rate (%) 0.13 0.28 0.28 0.53 0.53 0.78
Money Supply M0 (GBP Million) 95367.00 99100 101500 101950 102500 102900
Money Supply M1 (GBP Million) 2285831.00 2250800 2295100 2324500 2340500 2360800
Money Supply M2 (GBP Million) 2896859.00 2919100 2934200 2956600 2969600 2989100
Money Supply M3 (GBP Million) 3387453.00 3410000 3460000 3480000 3510000 3550000
Banks Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 4332409.00 4450000 4630000 4650000 4670000 4700000
Central Bank Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 1015269.00 1025200 1051500 1079200 1096400 1126100
Loans to Private Sector (GBP Million) 2673081.00 2780000 2850000 2821000 2864000 2870000
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 0.00 0.15 0.15 0.4 0.4 0.65
Lending Rate (%) 0.35 0.5 0.5 0.75 0.75 1
Private Debt to GDP (%) 212.80 216 219 219 219 219

Trade Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -3716.00 -100 -400 -600 -800 -800
Current Account (GBP Million) -8605.00 -27400 -18700 -17400 -22300 -22600
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.50 -4.8 -4.6 -4.6 -4.6 -4.6
Imports (GBP Million) 53486.00 52800 53600 54200 54900 55500
Exports (GBP Million) 49770.00 52700 53200 53600 54100 54700
External Debt (GBP Million) 7092969.00 7457000 7511000 7508000 7549000 7577000
Capital Flows (GBP Million) 11258.00 12900 22600 17500 18700 16600
Foreign Direct Investment (GBP Million) 19112.00 9900 18900 12800 -6800 10500
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 310.29 310 310 310 310 310
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 766.00 800 800 850 850 850
Tourism Revenues (GBP Million) 248.00 2500 2950 3870 4500 3600
Tourist Arrivals (Thousand) 195.00 2440 2990 4200 4890 4500
Goods Trade Balance (GBP Million) -14927.00 -10800 -12800 -13800 -14200 -14800

Government Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 97.20 107 109 109 109 109
Government Budget (% of GDP) -14.20 -10.3 -4.4 -4.4 -4.4 -4.4
Government Budget Value (GBP Million) -20514.00 -18440 -17500 -27400 -26300 -12600
Government Spending (GBP Million) 116448.00 109500 108400 109100 122387 111200
Government Spending to GDP (% of GDP) 52.10 46.7 42 42 42 42
Government Debt (GBP Billion) 2202.90 2210 2060 2150 2230 2300
Government Revenues (GBP Million) 61163.00 62270 57600 60200 71200 65270
Asylum Applications (persons) 10158.00 1910 1150 1290 1290 1810

Taxes Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 19 19 19
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate (%) 20.00 20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate (%) 27.80 29.05 29.05 29.05 29.05 29.05
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 13.80 14.43 14.43 14.43 14.43 14.43
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 14.00 14.63 14.63 14.63 14.63 14.63

Business Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Business Confidence (points) 27.00 15 20 12 11 5
Services PMI (points) 55.40 54.5 55.2 54.4 53.8 54
Manufacturing PMI (points) 57.10 56.4 55.1 55.4 54.2 53.6
Industrial Production (%) 3.70 2.7 3.2 4.4 3.4 2.6
Industrial Production Mom (%) 0.80 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7
Manufacturing Production (%) 4.10 1.8 4.5 5.1 4.4 3.6
New Orders (GBP Million) 13364.00 12180 12500 12900 13200 13600
Factory Orders (Net Balance) 22.00 18 14 12 10 8
Bankruptcies (Companies) 3116.00 5800 5100 4400 4000 4400
Corporate Profits (GBP Million) 128529.00 115000 119000 120000 121000 122000
Car Production (Units) 37246.00 87000 81000 119500 125100 99000
Car Registrations 215312.00 136000 256200 196000 297000 169000
Small Business Sentiment 27.00 30 9 15 11 5
Leading Economic Index (%) 2.90 1 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.9
Private Investment (%) 4.50 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.4 1.2
Mining Production (%) -0.50 15.1 8.6 4.2 3.6 2.3
Composite PMI (points) 54.90 54 54.4 54.2 53.6 53.8

Consumer Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Consumer Confidence (points) -13.00 5 1 4 2 -2
Retail Sales MoM (%) -0.90 0.6 1.2 1 -0.9 0.7
Retail Sales YoY (%) 0.00 2.6 3.4 4.5 4 3.4
Consumer Spending (GBP Million) 336063.00 352034 343346 335269 353202 355706
Disposable Personal Income (GBP Million) 369491.00 360337 391824 397983 388335 405930
Personal Savings (%) 11.30 10 9 8.5 7.6 7
Bank Lending Rate (%) 1.10 1.25 1.25 1.5 1.5 1.75
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 91.20 92 88 88 88 88
Cbi Distributive Trades (Net Balance) 11.00 15 5 12 11 9
Consumer Credit (GBP Million) 400.00 -715 2.14 317 416 -741
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.84 1.75 1.66 1.58 1.5 1.42

Housing Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Housing Starts (units) 42900.00 46330 49600 34900 45800 42710
Construction Output (%) 10.10 5.1 4.3 4.6 4.2 3.8
Housing Index (points) 461.40 465 462 458 460 466
Mortgage Approvals (Thousand) 74.50 66 74 76 77 78
Home Loans (GBP Million) 5300.00 3600 4000 3400 4400 2900
Home Ownership Rate (%) 65.20 64 63 63 63 63
Nationwide Housing Prices (points) 496.21 506 512 509 511 515
Construction Orders (%) 135.20 27 10.5 5.1 6.3 4.4
Construction PMI (points) 52.60 53.8 54 54.2 53.8 54.5


This page has economic forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy.