Markets Actual Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23
Currency 1.23 1.21 1.19 1.16 1.14
Stock Market (points) 7823.20 7558 7356 7159 6968
Government Bond 10Y (%) 3.04 3.5 3.69 3.88 4.08

Overview Actual Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23
GDP Growth Rate (%) -0.30 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.90 -1 -1.5 -1.1 0.1
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.70 3.8 4 4.2 4.4
Inflation Rate (%) 10.50 9.4 8 5.1 4
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.40 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2
Interest Rate (%) 4.00 4 4.5 4.5 4.5
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -1802.00 -4022 -2344 -3768 -2137
Current Account (GBP Million) -19402.00 -15818 -20585 -30245 -28680
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -2.00 -5.2
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 97.40 103
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.40 -2.6
Business Confidence (points) -5.00 -60 -15 -20 7
Manufacturing PMI (points) 47.00 48.3 50.2 50.5 51.3
Services PMI (points) 48.70 50.7 51.1 51.6 51.8
Consumer Confidence (points) -45.00 -49 -39 -31 -27
Retail Sales MoM (%) -1.00 -0.5 -0.2 -1.1 -2
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45

GDP Actual Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23
GDP Growth Rate (%) -0.30 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.90 -1 -1.5 -1.1 0.1
GDP (USD Billion) 3131.38 3080
GDP Constant Prices (GBP Million) 556856.00 552669 550221 550731 557413
Gross National Product (GBP Million) 622446.00 594843 607329 615599 623068
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GBP Million) 100838.00 100414 98208 99729 100939
GDP per Capita (USD) 45101.54 42700
GDP per Capita PPP (USD) 44978.71 46700
Full Year GDP Growth (%) 7.40 -0.6
Monthly GDP MoM (%) 0.10 0 0.1 0.2 0.4
Monthly GDP YoY (%) 0.20 -0.2 -1 -0.8 -0.6
GDP from Agriculture (GBP Million) 3585.00 3526 3532 3546 3589
GDP from Construction (GBP Million) 32120.00 31519 31705 31767 32152
GDP from Manufacturing (GBP Million) 49969.00 51566 50628 49419 50019
GDP from Mining (GBP Million) 4681.00 4828 4671 4630 4686
GDP from Public Administration (GBP Million) 24841.00 24306 24269 24568 24866
GDP from Services (GBP Million) 393556.00 388470 387337 389227 393950
GDP from Transport (GBP Million) 17413.00 17233 17098 17221 17430

Labour Actual Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.70 3.8 4 4.2 4.4
Employed Persons (Thousand) 32781.00 33000 33075 33500 33240
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 1562.30 1490 1480 1450 1400
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 8202.00 8300 8400 8400
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 24578.00 24800 24700 248000 24800
Employment Rate (%) 75.60 76.2 76.4 76.3
Claimant Count Change (Thousand) 19.70 12 -15 10 -5
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 78.50 78.6 78.8 78.8 79
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 11.10 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.8
Productivity (points) 101.60 103 103 103 103
Labour Costs (points) 111.50 118 117 116 116
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 1161.00 1050 950 850
Wages (GBP/Week) 629.00 653 643 647 652
Wages in Manufacturing (GBP/Week) 679.00 716 698 705 703
Wage Growth (%) 6.40 6.4 5.1 4.2 3.6
Minimum Wages (GBP/Hour) 9.50 10.42
Population (Million) 67.53 67.95
Employment Change (Thousand) 27.00 30 26 50 25
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 31.60 32.2 31.9 32 31.9

Prices Actual Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23
Inflation Rate (%) 10.50 9.4 8 5.1 4
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.40 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 127.16 128 132 130 132
Harmonised Consumer Prices (points) 127.16 128 132 130 132
Core Consumer Prices (points) 122.05 123 123 125 125
Core Inflation Rate (%) 6.30 6 4.2 4 2.8
GDP Deflator (points) 112.42 119 119 118 117
Producer Prices Change (%) 14.70 11.2 8.2 6 4.5
Food Inflation (%) 16.80 10 8 5 2
PPI Input (%) -1.10 -0.6 -0.4 1.2 -0.3
PPI Input YoY (%) 16.50 12.2 7.6 5.1 3.8
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%) -0.80 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 -0.3
Core Producer Prices MoM (%) 0.10 -0.3 -0.4 0.6 -0.2
Core Producer Prices YoY (%) 12.40 9.5 6.9 5.1 4
Input Producer Prices (points) 152.50 160 164 161 158
Inflation Expectations (%) 5.70 5.5 4.5 3.2 2.3
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 141.91 124 139 137 148
CPI Transportation (points) 136.11 137 137 137 137
Core Producer Prices (points) 135.00 137 140 140 140
Retail Price Index (%) 13.40 15.6 12 9.2 8.5
Producer Prices (points) 136.50 140 146 145 143

Money Actual Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23
Interest Rate (%) 4.00 4 4.5 4.5 4.5
Interbank Rate (%) 4.14 4.14 4.64 4.64 4.64
Money Supply M0 (GBP Million) 93602.00 95100 96700 96500 95100
Money Supply M1 (GBP Million) 2450844.00 2482000 2500000 2510000 2420800
Money Supply M2 (GBP Million) 3097634.00 3109100 3169100 3150000 3129100
Money Supply M3 (GBP Million) 3617817.00 3612000 3620000 3629000 3660000
Banks Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 4490629.00 4555000 4585000 4620000
Loans to Private Sector (GBP Million) 2770203.00 2840000 2910000
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 2.75 2.75 3.25 3.25 3.25
Lending Rate (%) 3.25 3.25 3.75 3.75 3.75
Private Debt to GDP (%) 187.20 211

Trade Actual Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -1802.00 -4022 -2344 -3768 -2137
Current Account (GBP Million) -19402.00 -15818 -20585 -30245 -28680
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -2.00 -5.2
Imports (GBP Million) 74683.00 72310 69675 73387 75294
Exports (GBP Million) 72881.00 68288 67331 69618 73158
External Debt (GBP Million) 7620272.00 7304000 7429000
Capital Flows (GBP Million) -3329.00 15500 16500 17500
Foreign Direct Investment (GBP Million) 44637.00 -5600 7000 12600
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 310.29 310
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 590.00 810 840 830 850
Goods Trade Balance Non-EU (GBP Million) -4666.00 -7700 -8600
Goods Trade Balance (GBP Million) -15623.00 -15600 -14600 -13600 -16700
Tourism Revenues (GBP Million) 3040.00 1700 2090 1700 2300
Tourist Arrivals (Thousand) 3510.00 2200 2750 2500 2500

Government Actual Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 97.40 103
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.40 -2.6
Government Budget Value (GBP Million) -27402.00 -13000 -13000 -11300 -11200
Government Spending (GBP Million) 112586.00 112491 110358 111348 112699
Government Spending to GDP (% of GDP) 44.70 47.2
Government Debt (GBP Billion) 2503.60 2490 2510
Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP Million) -26581.00 -12600 -18200 -17600 -14300
Fiscal Expenditure (GBP Million) 91235.00 82900 82900 80800 81700
Government Revenues (GBP Million) 74551.00 69900 69900 69500 70500
Asylum Applications (persons) 28746.00 8650 7240 7100


Business Actual Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23
Business Confidence (points) -5.00 -60 -15 -20 7
Manufacturing PMI (points) 47.00 48.3 50.2 50.5 51.3
Services PMI (points) 48.70 50.7 51.1 51.6 51.8
Industrial Production (%) -5.10 -4.7 -4.8 1 1.3
Industrial Production Mom (%) -0.20 -0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5
Manufacturing Production (%) -5.90 -5 -3.1 0.9 1.5
New Orders (GBP Million) 12896.00 13800 14180
Factory Orders (Net Balance) -17.00 -6 1 4 5
Bankruptcies (Companies) 5595.00 5300 4800 4200 3900
Corporate Profits (GBP Million) 132412.00 141000 143000 140000 145000
Car Production (Units) 51168.00 70800 75500 70000 99000
Car Registrations (Units) 128462.00 250000 150000 200000 110000
Small Business Sentiment (points) -39.00 -5 10 12 19
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (%) 6.50 0.9 1.7 1.9
Manufacturing Production MoM (Percent) -0.50 -0.2 0.7 0.3
Leading Economic Index (%) -0.30 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4
Mining Production (%) -1.40 -5.4 -4.3 -2 -2.3
Composite PMI (points) 48.50 50.3 51.2 51.9 51.7
Private Investment (%) -2.50 0.9 0.7

Consumer Actual Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23
Consumer Confidence (points) -45.00 -49 -39 -31 -27
Retail Sales MoM (%) -1.00 -0.5 -0.2 -1.1 -2
Retail Sales YoY (%) -5.80 3.2 3 3.5 2.6
Consumer Spending (GBP Million) 348344.00 344416 346860 344512 348692
Disposable Personal Income (GBP Million) 356659.00 369706 352500 352736 357016
Personal Savings (%) 9.00 6.4 6
Bank Lending Rate (%) 5.00 5 5.5 5.5 5.5
Net Lending to Individuals MoM (GBP Million) 3731.00 2700 1300 500 150
Households Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 83.90 85 85
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.20 1.3 1.35 1.4 1.45
Consumer Credit (GBP Million) 493.00 1278 1677 724 493
Cbi Distributive Trades (Net Balance) -23.00 -23 -17 -15 -11

Housing Actual Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23
Housing Starts (units) 42430.00 50200 44710
Construction Output (%) 4.00 0.1 0.4 -0.6 -1.2
Housing Index (points) 485.02 510 524 523 502
Mortgage Approvals (Thousand) 35.61 61 55 62
House Price Index MoM (%) -1.50 0.3 0.2 0.5
House Price Index YoY (%) 2.00 4.5 3.6 3.2 3.4
Home Loans (GBP Million) 3238.00 3200 3600
Home Ownership Rate (%) 65.20 64.5
Mortgage Rate (%) 6.41 6.41 6.91 6.91 6.91
Nationwide Housing Prices (points) 515.27 553 561 561 541
Construction PMI (points) 48.80 50.8 51.7 53.2 52.9
Construction Orders (%) 8.50 -8 8.5 6 3.6