The CBI's quarterly gauge of manufacturing optimism in the UK fell to 27 in the third quarter of 2021 from 38 in the previous three-month period, which was the highest level since the second quarter of 1973. Concerns about the availability of materials/components, skilled labour, and plant capacity as factors likely to limit output were at their most heightened since the mid-1970s. The manufacturing sector also continues to face acute cost pressures with firms reporting that average costs growth in the three months to July accelerated to its fastest pace since 1980. Meanwhile, the outlook further ahead is more positive, with investment intentions for plant & machinery and training & retraining improving to their strongest since 1988 and 2015, respectively. source: Confederation of British Industry

Business Confidence in the United Kingdom averaged -3.82 points from 1958 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 55 points in the third quarter of 1959 and a record low of -87 points in the second quarter of 2020. This page provides - United Kingdom Business Confidence - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. United Kingdom Business Confidence - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on August of 2021.

Business Confidence in the United Kingdom is expected to be 45.00 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in the United Kingdom to stand at 12.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Business Confidence is projected to trend around 5.00 points in 2022 and -2.00 points in 2023, according to our econometric models.

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United Kingdom Business Confidence

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
27.00 38.00 55.00 -87.00 1958 - 2021 points Quarterly


Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2020-10-22 10:00 AM Q4 0 -1 -14
2021-01-21 11:00 AM Q1 -22 0 -8
2021-04-22 10:00 AM Q2 38 -22 -10
2021-07-22 10:00 AM Q3 27 38 45
2021-10-22 10:00 AM Q4 27 15


News Stream
UK Business Optimism Indicator Falls from 48-Year High
The CBI's quarterly gauge of manufacturing optimism in the UK fell to 27 in the third quarter of 2021 from 38 in the previous three-month period, which was the highest level since the second quarter of 1973. Concerns about the availability of materials/components, skilled labour, and plant capacity as factors likely to limit output were at their most heightened since the mid-1970s. The manufacturing sector also continues to face acute cost pressures with firms reporting that average costs growth in the three months to July accelerated to its fastest pace since 1980. Meanwhile, the outlook further ahead is more positive, with investment intentions for plant & machinery and training & retraining improving to their strongest since 1988 and 2015, respectively.
2021-07-22
UK Business Optimism Indicator Hits 48-Year High
The CBI's quarterly gauge of manufacturing optimism in the UK jumped to 38 in the second quarter of 2021 from -22 in the previous three-month period, hitting its highest level since the second quarter of 1973. Manufacturers expected a solid rebound from the COVID crisis as the economy reopens, with investment intentions seeing a strong rebound. Both output and orders growth are expected to pick up rapidly in the next quarter, as domestic demand improved further and export optimism for the year ahead strengthened after successive decline over almost three years. Employment growth is expected to accelerate further over the next three months, with expectations at their strongest since April 1974. On a more negative note, cost pressures continued to temper the outlook for the manufacturing sector.
2021-04-22
UK Business Confidence Weakest in 3 Quarters
The CBI's quarterly gauge of manufacturing optimism in the UK dropped to -22.0 in the first quarter of 2021, the lowest since an all-time low of -87 was hit in the second quarter of 2020, as manufacturers expect a sharp fall in output and new orders in the three months ahead. At the same time, stockpiling picked up ahead of Britain's departure from the EU. "This appears to be linked to widespread COVID-related supply disruption, such as delays in shipments from abroad, a shortage of containers across the world, and knock-on impacts from disruptions to production over 2020," the CBI said. "Border challenges and customs-related delays arising from Brexit also appear to be playing a role," it added.
2021-01-21
UK Business Optimism Little-Changed in Q4
The CBI's quarterly gauge of manufacturing optimism in the UK was little-changed at 0 in the fourth quarter of 2020, compared to -1 in the previous period and an all-time low of -87 in the three months to June. At the same time, export sentiment fell at a slightly quicker pace than in the previous period (-21 vs -17 in Q3). Looking ahead to the coming quarter, manufacturers expect output to grow at a moderate pace. However, total new orders are anticipated to remain unchanged, reflecting steady growth in domestic orders and a slower fall in export orders. Employment is expected to be broadly unchanged in the next quarter, following six quarters of decline. Meanwhile, almost a third of manufacturers are concerned that access to materials or components may limit their output over the quarter ahead, while they are less concerned that access to finance could constrain near-term output or investment plans.
2020-10-22

United Kingdom Business Confidence
In the United Kingdom, the Business Optimism Index is published by the Confederation of British Industry's in its Industrial Trends Survey. An average of 400 small, medium and large companies from the manufacturing sector is surveyed each quarter. The Questionnaire accesses the overall sentiment regarding general and export business situation, investment, capacity, order books, employment, output, stocks, prices competitiveness regarding domestic, EU and non-EU markets and innovation and training. For each assessment is computed a sub-index as the percentage of positive answers minus the percentage of negative answers. The composite index is then computed as the weighted average of the sub-indices. An Optimism Index of +100 indicates that all survey respondents are much more confident about future prospects, while -100 suggests that all survey respondents are much less confident about future prospects. An index level of 0 indicates neutrality.