The CBI's quarterly gauge of manufacturing optimism in the UK dropped 25 points from the previous period to +2 in the fourth quarter of 2021, falling further from a 48-year high of +38 hit during the second quarter. Concerns about supply shortages in the next three months escalated further, with almost two-thirds of firms citing availability of materials/components as a factor likely to limit output next quarter, the highest share since January 1975. In addition, firms expressed heightened concerns about labor shortages affecting future output, with two-in-five firms worried about a lack of skilled labor, the highest since July 1974, and nearly a third concerned about availability of other labor, a survey-record high. The manufacturing sector also continued to face acute cost and price pressures, with inflation seen accelerating to new highs over the next three months. On a brighter note, manufacturers expect output and total new orders growth to pick up next quarter. source: Confederation of British Industry

Business Confidence in the United Kingdom averaged -3.80 points from 1958 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 55 points in the third quarter of 1959 and a record low of -87 points in the second quarter of 2020. This page provides - United Kingdom Business Confidence - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. United Kingdom Business Confidence - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on October of 2021.

Business Confidence in the United Kingdom is expected to be 15.00 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Business Confidence is projected to trend around 5.00 points in 2022 and -2.00 points in 2023, according to our econometric models.

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United Kingdom Business Confidence


Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2021-07-22 10:00 AM Q3 27 38 45
2021-10-21 10:00 AM Q4 2 27 15


News Stream
UK Business Morale Deteriorates Sharply in Q4
The CBI's quarterly gauge of manufacturing optimism in the UK dropped 25 points from the previous period to +2 in the fourth quarter of 2021, falling further from a 48-year high of +38 hit during the second quarter. Concerns about supply shortages in the next three months escalated further, with almost two-thirds of firms citing availability of materials/components as a factor likely to limit output next quarter, the highest share since January 1975. In addition, firms expressed heightened concerns about labor shortages affecting future output, with two-in-five firms worried about a lack of skilled labor, the highest since July 1974, and nearly a third concerned about availability of other labor, a survey-record high. The manufacturing sector also continued to face acute cost and price pressures, with inflation seen accelerating to new highs over the next three months. On a brighter note, manufacturers expect output and total new orders growth to pick up next quarter.
2021-10-21
UK Business Optimism Indicator Falls from 48-Year High
The CBI's quarterly gauge of manufacturing optimism in the UK fell to 27 in the third quarter of 2021 from 38 in the previous three-month period, which was the highest level since the second quarter of 1973. Concerns about the availability of materials/components, skilled labour, and plant capacity as factors likely to limit output were at their most heightened since the mid-1970s. The manufacturing sector also continues to face acute cost pressures with firms reporting that average costs growth in the three months to July accelerated to its fastest pace since 1980. Meanwhile, the outlook further ahead is more positive, with investment intentions for plant & machinery and training & retraining improving to their strongest since 1988 and 2015, respectively.
2021-07-22
UK Business Optimism Indicator Hits 48-Year High
The CBI's quarterly gauge of manufacturing optimism in the UK jumped to 38 in the second quarter of 2021 from -22 in the previous three-month period, hitting its highest level since the second quarter of 1973. Manufacturers expected a solid rebound from the COVID crisis as the economy reopens, with investment intentions seeing a strong rebound. Both output and orders growth are expected to pick up rapidly in the next quarter, as domestic demand improved further and export optimism for the year ahead strengthened after successive decline over almost three years. Employment growth is expected to accelerate further over the next three months, with expectations at their strongest since April 1974. On a more negative note, cost pressures continued to temper the outlook for the manufacturing sector.
2021-04-22

United Kingdom Last Unit Reference Previous Highest Lowest
Business Confidence 2.00 points Dec/21 27.00 55.00 -87.00
Factory Orders 9.00 Net Balance Oct/21 22.00 22.00 -79.00
Small Business Sentiment 27.00 Sep/21 29.00 40.00 -84.00


United Kingdom Business Confidence
In the United Kingdom, the Business Optimism Index is published by the Confederation of British Industry's in its Industrial Trends Survey. An average of 400 small, medium and large companies from the manufacturing sector is surveyed each quarter. The Questionnaire accesses the overall sentiment regarding general and export business situation, investment, capacity, order books, employment, output, stocks, prices competitiveness regarding domestic, EU and non-EU markets and innovation and training. For each assessment is computed a sub-index as the percentage of positive answers minus the percentage of negative answers. The composite index is then computed as the weighted average of the sub-indices. An Optimism Index of +100 indicates that all survey respondents are much more confident about future prospects, while -100 suggests that all survey respondents are much less confident about future prospects. An index level of 0 indicates neutrality.