The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa dropped 2% from a month earlier in March 2023, following a downwardly revised 0.5% fall in February. This was the fourth consecutive period of declines in business indicators, as 5 out of the 7 available component time series decreased. The largest negative contributors were the decline in South Africa’s US-dollar denominated export commodity price index and a deceleration in the six-months smoothed growth rate in the real M1 money supply. On the other hand, the positive contributors were an increase in the number of residential building plans approved and an acceleration in the composite leading business cycle indicator for South Africa’s major trading-partner countries. source: South African Reserve Bank

Leading Economic Index in South Africa averaged 0.20 percent from 1960 until 2023, reaching an all time high of 5.10 percent in June of 2020 and a record low of -6.00 percent in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - South Africa Leading Economic Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on June of 2023.

Leading Economic Index in South Africa is expected to be 1.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM is projected to trend around 1.00 percent in 2024 and 0.70 percent in 2025, according to our econometric models.

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South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM



Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2023-04-25 06:00 AM Feb -0.7% -0.2% 0.2%
2023-05-23 07:00 AM Mar -2% -0.5% -1.0%
2023-06-20 07:00 AM Apr -2%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Capacity Utilization 78.30 78.50 percent Dec 2022
Leading Economic Index -2.00 -0.70 percent Mar 2023

South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
In South Africa, the Composite Leading Business Cycle Indicator examines the direction in which real economic activity is moving, in real time. It is calculated on the basis of the following components: building plans approved, new passenger vehicles sold, commodity price index for main export commodities, index of prices of all classes of shares traded on the JSE, job advertisements, volume of orders in manufacturing, real M1, average hours worked per factory worker in manufacturing, interest rate spread, composite leading business cycle indicator of the major trading-partner countries, business confidence index, gross operating surplus as a percentage of GDP. The index has a base value of 100 as of 2010.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-2.00 -0.70 5.10 -6.00 1960 - 2023 percent Monthly
SA

News Stream
South Africa Business Cycle Index Drops for 4th Month
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa dropped 2% from a month earlier in March 2023, following a downwardly revised 0.5% fall in February. This was the fourth consecutive period of declines in business indicators, as 5 out of the 7 available component time series decreased. The largest negative contributors were the decline in South Africa’s US-dollar denominated export commodity price index and a deceleration in the six-months smoothed growth rate in the real M1 money supply. On the other hand, the positive contributors were an increase in the number of residential building plans approved and an acceleration in the composite leading business cycle indicator for South Africa’s major trading-partner countries.
2023-05-23
South Africa Business Cycle Index Falls 0.7% MoM
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa went down 0.7% month-on-month in February 2023, slipping further from an upwardly revised 0.2% fall in January. It was the third consecutive month of decline, as 8 out of the 10 available component time series decreased. The largest negative contributors were a deceleration in the six-months smoothed growth rate of job advertisement space and the decline in South Africa’s US-dollar denominated export commodity price index. On the other hand, increases were seen in the number of approved residential building plans and six-months smoothed growth rate in the real M1 money supply.
2023-04-25
South Africa Business Cycle Index Falls for 4th Month
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa inched down 0.1% from a month earlier in January 2023, following a downwardly revised 1.9% fall in December 2022. It was the fourth consecutive period of declines in business indicators, as decreases touched eight of the ten available component time series. The largest negative contributors were the dropping numbers of residential building plans approved and South Africa’s US dollar-denominated export commodity price index.
2023-03-22