The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa declined by 0.9 percent month-over-month in October of 2022, following a downwardly revised 0.9 percent growth in September, weighed down by six of the ten available component time series. The largest negative contributors were decelerations in the six-month smoothed growth rate of both job advertisement space and new passenger vehicle sales. By contrast, positive contribution came from an increase in the number of residential building plans approved and a rise in the volume of orders in manufacturing. Year-on-year, the leading business cycle indicator fell 1.9 percent, after a 1.1 percent drop in September. source: South African Reserve Bank

Leading Economic Index in South Africa averaged 0.21 percent from 1960 until 2022, reaching an all time high of 5.10 percent in June of 2020 and a record low of -6.00 percent in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - South Africa Leading Economic Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on January of 2023.

Leading Economic Index in South Africa is expected to be 0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM is projected to trend around 1.50 percent in 2023 and 3.00 percent in 2024, according to our econometric models.

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South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM



Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2022-11-22 07:00 AM Sep 1.4% -2.3% 0.3%
2022-12-20 07:00 AM Oct -0.9% 0.9% -0.8%
2023-01-24 07:00 AM Nov -0.9%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Capacity Utilization 78.80 77.60 percent Sep 2022
Leading Economic Index -0.90 0.90 percent Oct 2022

South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
In South Africa, the Composite Leading Business Cycle Indicator examines the direction in which real economic activity is moving, in real time. It is calculated on the basis of the following components: building plans approved, new passenger vehicles sold, commodity price index for main export commodities, index of prices of all classes of shares traded on the JSE, job advertisements, volume of orders in manufacturing, real M1, average hours worked per factory worker in manufacturing, interest rate spread, composite leading business cycle indicator of the major trading-partner countries, business confidence index, gross operating surplus as a percentage of GDP. The index has a base value of 100 as of 2010.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-0.90 0.90 5.10 -6.00 1960 - 2022 percent Monthly
SA

News Stream
South Africa Business Cycle Index Falls in October
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa declined by 0.9 percent month-over-month in October of 2022, following a downwardly revised 0.9 percent growth in September, weighed down by six of the ten available component time series. The largest negative contributors were decelerations in the six-month smoothed growth rate of both job advertisement space and new passenger vehicle sales. By contrast, positive contribution came from an increase in the number of residential building plans approved and a rise in the volume of orders in manufacturing. Year-on-year, the leading business cycle indicator fell 1.9 percent, after a 1.1 percent drop in September.
2022-12-20
South Africa Business Cycle Index Rises the Most in 16 Months
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa increased by 1.4% month-over-month in September of 2022, rebounding from a 2.3% fall in August. It was the first time increase in leading business index in three months, and the most since May 2021, as five of the nine available component time series increased,while the remaining four decreased. The largest positive contributors were an acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate of job advertisement space and an increase in the number of residential building plans approved. The largest negative contributors were a deceleration in the six months smoothed growth rate of new passenger vehicle sales and slower year-on-year growth in the composite leading business cycle indicator for South Africa’s main trading partner countries.
2022-11-22
South Africa Business Cycle Index Falls for 2nd Month
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa declined by 2.3% month-over-month in August of 2022, after a 1% fall in July. It was the second straight month of decreases in the index and the most in 13 months, as 9 of the 10 available component time series were down, while only one component increased. The largest negative contributors were a decline in the number of residential building plans approved and a narrowing of the interest rate spread. The positive contribution came from an increase in the volume of orders in manufacturing.
2022-10-25