The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa dropped by 2.3 percent from a month earlier in September of 2021, reversing from a 0.7 percent rise in the previous month. Seven of the nine available component time series decreased, while the remaining two increased. The largest detractors were decreases in the US dollar-denominated export commodity price index and in the number of residential building plans approved. The two positive contributors were increases in the average hours worked per factory worker and the volume of orders in manufacturing. source: South African Reserve Bank

Leading Economic Index in South Africa averaged 0.21 percent from 1960 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 4.80 percent in June of 2020 and a record low of -6.80 percent in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - South Africa Leading Economic Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on December of 2021.

Leading Economic Index in South Africa is expected to be 1.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM is projected to trend around 1.80 percent in 2022 and 3.00 percent in 2023, according to our econometric models.

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South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM


Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2021-10-26 07:00 AM Aug 0.7% -2.4% -2.2%
2021-11-23 07:00 AM Sep -2.3% 0.7% 1.2%
2021-12-15 07:00 AM Oct -2.3% -2.6%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Capacity Utilization 79.00 74.60 percent Jun/21
Leading Economic Index -2.30 0.70 percent Sep/21

News Stream
South Africa Leading Index Falls 2.3% MoM in September
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa dropped by 2.3 percent from a month earlier in September of 2021, reversing from a 0.7 percent rise in the previous month. Seven of the nine available component time series decreased, while the remaining two increased. The largest detractors were decreases in the US dollar-denominated export commodity price index and in the number of residential building plans approved. The two positive contributors were increases in the average hours worked per factory worker and the volume of orders in manufacturing.
2021-11-23
South Africa Leading Business Cycle Index Rebounds
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa edged up by 0.7 percent from a month earlier in August of 2021, rebounding from a downwardly revised 2.4 percent drop in the previous month. Four of the ten available component time series increased, more than offsetting decreases in the remaining six. Main upward pressure came from the six-month smoothed growth rate of new passenger vehicles sold and of job advertisement space. On the other hand, the largest detractors were drops in the average hours worked per factory worker in manufacturing and in the US dollar-denominated export commodity price index.
2021-10-26
South Africa Leading Index Falls 2.5% in July
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa fell by 2.5% from a month earlier in July of 2021, following a revised 4.4 percent slump in the previous month. Nine of the ten available component time series decreased, while one increased. The largest detractors were decelerations in the six-month smoothed growth rate of job advertisement space and in the number of new passenger vehicles sold. The positive contributor was the increase in the number of residential building plans approved.
2021-09-21

South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
In South Africa, the Composite Leading Business Cycle Indicator examines the direction in which real economic activity is moving, in real time. It is calculated on the basis of the following components: building plans approved, new passenger vehicles sold, commodity price index for main export commodities, index of prices of all classes of shares traded on the JSE, job advertisements, volume of orders in manufacturing, real M1, average hours worked per factory worker in manufacturing, interest rate spread, composite leading business cycle indicator of the major trading-partner countries, business confidence index, gross operating surplus as a percentage of GDP. The index has a base value of 100 as of 2010.