Markets Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Currency 1.02 1.01 1 0.99 0.98 0.95
Stock Market (points) 6194.53 5994 5826 5662 5503 5198
Government Bond 10Y (%) 1.95 2.21 2.43 2.67 2.94 3.56

Overview Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
GDP Growth Rate (%) -0.20 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 6.90 3.7 2.5 0.9 3.5 3
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.70 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.2
Inflation Rate (%) 9.10 8 6.2 5 3 2.2
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.00 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5
Interest Rate (%) 0.50 0.75 1.25 1.5 1.75 1.75
Balance of Trade (EUR Million) -2521.96 -1340 -1490 -1490 -1490 -1490
Current Account (EUR Million) -1854.25 450 -230 -250 -250 -320
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -1.10 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 127.40 122 122 119 119 119
Government Budget (% of GDP) -2.80 -2 -2 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1
Business Confidence (points) 1.80 1.7 1.9 2 2 2.3
Consumer Confidence (points) -31.10 -6 -7 -7.2 -7.2 -7
Retail Sales MoM (%) -1.90 -0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 48.00 48 48 48 48 48

GDP Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
GDP Growth Rate (%) -0.20 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 6.90 3.7 2.5 0.9 3.5 3
GDP (USD Billion) 249.89 260 260 260 260 280
GDP Constant Prices (EUR Million) 51919.20 51740 52018 52546 53736 53578
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (EUR Million) 9872.40 9706 9468 9682 9961 9972
GDP per capita (USD) 20731.95 24400 24400 24400 24400 25200
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 33514.27 34400 34400 34400 34400 35200
GDP From Agriculture (EUR Million) 977.60 1068 1059 1055 986 1087
GDP From Construction (EUR Million) 2083.10 2089 2034 2042 2102 2103
GDP From Manufacturing (EUR Million) 6208.80 6466 6393 6361 6265 6552
GDP From Services (EUR Million) 8585.10 7969 8372 8349 8662 8599
GDP From Transport (EUR Million) 4331.10 3922 4081 4222 4370 4348
GDP From Utilities (EUR Million) 1581.70 1651 1643 1653 1596 1703
Gross National Product (EUR Million) 54842.50 54972 56580 57037 55336 58748

Labour Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.70 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.2
Employment Rate (%) 56.40 55.4 55.5 55.5 55.5 56
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 59.90 59.6 59.7 59.7 59.7 60
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 2.80 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 19.30 20 19.9 20 20 20
Labour Costs (points) 104.19 120 113 125 107 128
Wages (EUR/Month) 1188.06 1237 1239 1231 1224 1269
Wages in Manufacturing (points) 138.86 115 161 124 142 165
Wage Growth (%) 4.20 3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.2
Minimum Wages (EUR/Month) 822.50 785 785 785 785 800
Population (Million) 10.30 10.27 10.27 10.27 10.27 10.25
Retirement Age Women 66.50 66.58 66.58 66.58 66.58 66.67
Retirement Age Men 66.50 66.58 66.58 66.58 66.58 66.67
Productivity (points) 103.17 106 107 107 107 107

Prices Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Inflation Rate (%) 9.10 8 6.2 5 3 2.2
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.00 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 114.51 114 113 116 118 116
Harmonised Consumer Prices (points) 114.39 114 113 115 118 115
Core Consumer Prices (points) 110.81 107 107 110 113 108
Core Inflation Rate (%) 6.20 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.5
Food Inflation (%) 13.90 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 2
GDP Deflator (%) 0.80 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 128.17 120 119 121 128 122
CPI Transportation (points) 118.93 120 120 121 121 122
Producer Prices (points) 134.00 131 132 140 143 134
Producer Prices Change (%) 25.70 18 12 9 7 2

Money Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Interest Rate (%) 0.50 0.75 1.25 1.5 1.75 1.75
Interbank Rate (%) 0.04 0.29 0.79 1.04 1.29 1.29
Money Supply M2 (EUR Million) 309067.30 293600 295200 295200 295200 302200
Banks Balance Sheet (EUR Million) 478556.50 474500 476100 476100 476100 485100
Loans to Private Sector (EUR Million) 77250.70 79106 78078 78599 79723 80030
Central Bank Balance Sheet (EUR Million) 224493.00 223700 221200 221200 221200 244200
Private Debt to GDP (%) 253.90 251 251 251 251 247
Loan Growth (%) 3.30 3.7 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.5

Trade Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Balance of Trade (EUR Million) -2521.96 -1340 -1490 -1490 -1490 -1490
Current Account (EUR Million) -1854.25 450 -230 -250 -250 -320
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -1.10 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
Imports (EUR Million) 9572.94 6740 6380 6450 6450 6580
Exports (EUR Million) 7050.99 5400 4890 4960 4960 5090
External Debt (EUR Million) 407247.00 435100 436600 436600 436600 445600
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR Million) 1051.50 290 380 380 380 450
Tourism Revenues (EUR Million) 1759.43 1360 850 850 850 980
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 382.57 383 383 383 383 383
Tourist Arrivals 4701814.00 2602000 1954000 1954000 1954000 2232000

Government Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 127.40 122 122 119 119 119
Government Budget (% of GDP) -2.80 -2 -2 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1
Government Budget Value (EUR Million) -2153.20 -6000 -5660 -5660 -5660 -2160
Government Spending (EUR Million) 9003.20 9328 9100 9127 9084 9400
Government Spending to GDP (% of GDP) 48.10 46 46 46 46 46
Government Revenues (EUR Million) 25736.90 42500 55440 55440 55440 59940
Government Debt (EUR Million) 275995.00 280800 283000 283000 283000 289000
Fiscal Expenditure (EUR Million) 13267.90 48500 61100 61100 61100 62100

Taxes Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 48.00 48 48 48 48 48
Sales Tax Rate (%) 23.00 23 23 23 23 23
Social Security Rate (%) 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 11.00 11 11 11 11 11

Business Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Business Confidence (points) 1.80 1.7 1.9 2 2 2.3
Industrial Production (%) 3.70 4.4 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
Industrial Production Mom (%) -1.50 -0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6
Manufacturing Production (%) 6.70 4.3 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7
Capacity Utilization (%) 82.18 79.4 80 80 80 81
Car Registrations 15510.00 18900 21100 21100 21100 25100
Leading Economic Index (%) 7.10 4.3 3.6 3.4 3.4 2.8
Car Production (Units) 2245.00 36800 21500 21500 21500 28500

Consumer Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Consumer Confidence (points) -31.10 -6 -7 -7.2 -7.2 -7
Retail Sales MoM (%) -1.90 -0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4
Retail Sales YoY (%) 3.30 3.8 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.2
Consumer Spending (EUR Million) 32828.90 32944 32953 32935 33124 33923
Personal Savings (%) 11.30 8.1 8 8 8 7.5
Consumer Credit (EUR Million) 127842.40 128675 128192 127765 132317 132038
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 2.10 2.18 2.26 2.34 2.43 2.43
Bank Lending Rate (%) 2.23 2.48 2.98 3.23 3.48 3.48
Disposable Personal Income (EUR Million) 46612.70 45885 46002 46136 47032 47520
Personal Spending (%) 3.90 4 3.6 3.6 3.6 2.4
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 68.10 67 67 67 67 65
Households Debt To Income (%) 94.32 97 97 97 97 95

Housing Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Construction Output (%) 2.70 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.6 2.2
Housing Index (points) 182.64 182 187 192 188 191
Building Permits 2432.00 2420 2100 2100 2100 2250
Home Ownership Rate (%) 77.30 73 73 73 73 73.2


Trading Economics provides data for 20 million economic indicators from 196 countries including actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, historical time series and news. Portugal Forecast - was last updated on Monday, August 15, 2022.