Wheat futures in the US fell past the $5.8 per bushel mark, the lowest since December 2020, on strong supply. Russian grain benchmarks fell after data pointed to a bumper harvest for the upcoming marketing year, raising foreign sales forecasts to nearly 50 million tonnes despite Moscow’s recent increase in grain export duties. Sellers in the world's top exporter have shaven-off prices as the current record-high harvest raised inventories to unsustainable levels. Supply is also set to jump from the EU, expected to bring 38 million tonnes of export. In the meantime, Russia agreed to extend the deal guaranteeing grain exports out of Ukrainian Black Sea ports for 60 days, preserving Ukraine’s access to key foreign markets and increasing price competition with other major producers. Adding to the bearish pressure, the USDA forecasted a drop in global demand for the upcoming marketing year due to lower feed and residual usage.
Historically, Wheat reached an all time high of 1350 in March of 2022. Wheat - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on June of 2023.
Wheat is expected to trade at 600.99 USd/BU by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 550.04 in 12 months time.