US natural gas futures fell by more than 8% below $5.8MMBtu, closing in on the lowest since July 6th on expectations of higher supply and milder weather across the US over the next two weeks. The restart of the Freeport LNG export plant due to take place in the mid of December was pushed until the end of the month as the company is still waiting for regulatory approval, leaving more gas in the domestic market. Also, average gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose to a record 99.5 bcfd in November, up from 99.4 bcfd in October. Meanwhile, warmer-than-usual temperatures should allow utilities to leave more gas in storage which is now around 2.4% below the five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year. Still, US gas futures are up nearly 75% so far this year as overseas demand for LNG remains strong especially from Europe after the war in Ukraine has disrupted the gas supply.
Historically, Natural gas reached an all time high of 15.78 in December of 2005. Natural gas - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on December of 2022.
Natural gas is expected to trade at 6.62 USD/MMBtu by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 7.95 in 12 months time.