Week Ahead

Minutes from the last FOMC meeting, global services PMIs, China inflation and RBA and RBI monetary policy decisions will be in the spotlight next week. Investors will also turn their attention to any negotiations between Democrats and Republicans over President Joe Biden’s $2 trillion infrastructure plan and to coronavirus figures, specially in Europe where infections are rising and countries are tightening restrictions. Markets in China, Germany, the UK and Australia will be closed on Monday for holidays.
Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com 4/2/2021 3:53:22 PM
In the US, the minutes from the last FOMC meeting are due Wednesday, with investors hoping they might provide some clarity on policymakers' next move. In March, the Federal Reserve signaled it would hold interest rates at record low levels through 2023, despite revising up its GDP forecasts for 2021 and 2022 due to the approval of President Biden’s $1.9-trillion recovery package and the ongoing COVID-19 vaccination programme.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI survey should signal a sharp acceleration in service activity growth during March, suggesting the world's largest economy consolidated its recovery from last year's massive slump. Other notable publications are foreign trade, factory orders, producer prices, JOLTs Job Openings, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, and the final readings of Markit Services PMI and wholesale inventories.

Elsewhere in America, key data to follow include Canada employment figures, trade balance, and Ivey PMIs; Brazil inflation rate and Markit Services PMI; and Mexico consumer prices, consumer and business sentiment, industrial production and Markit Manufacturing PMI. The central bank of Mexico is also set to publish its monetary policy meeting minutes.

In the UK, the economic calendar will be soft, with final Markit services and composite PMIs, construction PMI, Halifax house price index and new car sales. Preliminary data showed business activity across the UK private sector increased in March and the rate of expansion was the fastest for seven months.

Elsewhere in Europe, the ECB publishes its monetary policy meeting accounts. In March, policymakers signaled faster money printing over the second quarter of the year while maintaining the same PEPP total envelope. Meantime, Germany industrial production is set to rebound despite factory orders seen rising at a softer pace while France industrial output growth is likely to ease from a 6-month high. Other key highlights include: Eurozone unemployment rate, including those for Italy and Spain; Germany foreign trade and current account; France balance of trade; Italy retail trade; Spain consumer confidence and industrial activity; Switzerland unemployment rate; Poland interest rate decision; and Turkey consumer and producer inflation. Also, updates on Markit services and composite PMIs will be published for several European countries.

In Asia, China will publish inflation data and the Caixin Services PMI for March, providing an insight of the post-pandemic economic recovery. Meanwhile in Japan, the Jibun Bank will be releasing its final reading for March's Services PMI. Other important releases include consumer morale, current account, Eco Watchers survey and household spending.

The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of India will hold their monetary policy meetings, but no changes are expected. On the economic data front, important releases for Australia include Ai Group services and construction indexes, and the final estimates of building permits and Markit Services PMI; while in India the Markit PMI surveys will be in the spotlight.





 


Friday April 02 2021 Actual Previous
12:00 AM
US
Total Vehicle Sales MAR 17.7M 15.7M
12:30 PM
US
Non Farm Payrolls MAR 916K 468K ®
12:30 PM
US
Unemployment Rate MAR 6% 6.2%
03:00 PM
US
Fed Bostic Speech
Monday April 05 2021 Actual Previous
12:30 AM
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI Final MAR 48.3 46.3
05:00 AM
IN
Markit Manufacturing PMI MAR 55.4 57.5
07:00 AM
TR
Inflation Rate YoY MAR 16.19% 15.61%
07:00 AM
TR
Inflation Rate MoM MAR 1.08% 0.91%
11:00 AM
MX
Business Confidence MAR 45.2 44.2 ®
11:30 AM
BR
BCB Focus Market Readout
01:45 PM
US
Markit Composite PMI Final MAR 59.7 59.5
01:45 PM
US
Markit Services PMI Final MAR 60.4 59.8
02:00 PM
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI MAR 63.7 55.3
02:00 PM
US
Factory Orders MoM FEB -0.8% 2.7% ®
Tuesday April 06 2021 Actual Previous
01:00 AM
PH
Inflation Rate YoY MAR 4.5% 4.7%
01:45 AM
CN
Caixin Services PMI MAR 54.3 51.5
04:30 AM
AU
RBA Interest Rate Decision 0.1% 0.1%
07:00 AM
ES
Unemployment Change MAR -59.1K 44.4K
08:00 AM
IT
Unemployment Rate JAN 10.3% 9.8% ®
08:00 AM
IT
Unemployment Rate FEB 10.2% 10.3%
09:00 AM
EA
Unemployment Rate FEB 8.3% 8.3% ®
10:30 AM
ES
Consumer Confidence MAR 73 65.9
11:00 AM
MX
Consumer Confidence MAR 40.4 38.8 ®
01:00 PM
BR
Markit Services PMI MAR 44.1 47.1
02:00 PM
US
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism APR 56.4 55.4
02:00 PM
US
JOLTs Job Openings FEB 7.367M 7.099M ®
04:00 PM
RU
Inflation Rate YoY MAR 5.8% 5.7%
08:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change 02/APR -2.618M 3.91M
11:00 PM
AU
Markit Services PMI Final MAR 55.5 53.4
Wednesday April 07 2021 Actual Previous
04:30 AM
IN
RBI Interest Rate Decision 4% 4%
07:15 AM
ES
Markit Services PMI MAR 48.1 43.1
07:45 AM
IT
IHS Markit Services PMI MAR 48.6 48.8
07:50 AM
FR
Markit Services PMI Final MAR 48.2 45.6
07:55 AM
DE
Markit Services PMI Final MAR 51.5 45.7
08:00 AM
EA
Markit Services PMI Final MAR 49.6 45.7
08:30 AM
GB
Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Final MAR 56.3 49.5
12:25 PM
PL
Interest Rate Decision APR 0.1% 0.1%
12:30 PM
CA
Balance of Trade FEB C$1.04B C$1.21B ®
12:30 PM
US
Balance of Trade FEB $-71.1B $-67.8B ®
01:00 PM
US
Fed Evans Speech
02:00 PM
CA
Ivey PMI s.a MAR 72.9 60
02:30 PM
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 02/APR 4.044M -1.735M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 02/APR -3.522M -0.876M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change 02/APR -0.735M 0.782M
04:00 PM
US
Fed Barkins Speech
06:00 PM
US
FOMC Minutes
11:50 PM
JP
Current Account FEB ¥2916.9B ¥644.4B ®
Thursday April 08 2021 Actual Previous
04:00 AM
MY
Unemployment Rate FEB 4.8% 4.9%
04:30 AM
NL
Inflation Rate YoY MAR 1.9% 1.8%
05:00 AM
JP
Consumer Confidence MAR 36.1 33.8
06:00 AM
DE
Factory Orders MoM FEB 1.2% 0.8% ®
06:45 AM
FR
Balance of Trade FEB €-5.25B €-4.19B ®
07:30 AM
DE
Construction PMI MAR 47.5 41
08:30 AM
GB
Construction PMI MAR 61.7 53.3
10:00 AM
IE
Inflation Rate YoY MAR 0% -0.4%
11:00 AM
MX
Inflation Rate YoY MAR 4.67% 3.76%
11:30 AM
EA
ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
12:30 PM
US
Initial Jobless Claims 03/APR 744K 728K ®
12:30 PM
US
Jobless Claims 4-week Average APR/03 723.75K 721.25K ®
02:00 PM
MX
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
04:00 PM
US
Fed Chair Powell Speech
10:30 PM
AU
Ai Group Services Index MAR 58.7 55.8
Friday April 09 2021 Actual Previous
01:30 AM
AU
Building Permits MoM Final FEB 21.6% -19.4%
01:30 AM
AU
RBA Financial Stability Review
01:30 AM
CN
Inflation Rate YoY MAR 0.4% -0.2%
01:30 AM
CN
Inflation Rate MoM MAR -0.5% 0.6%
01:30 AM
CN
PPI YoY MAR 4.4% 1.7%
05:45 AM
CH
Unemployment Rate MAR 3.4% 3.6%
06:00 AM
DE
Balance of Trade FEB €18.1B €13.8B ®
06:00 AM
DE
Industrial Production MoM FEB -1.6% -2% ®
06:45 AM
FR
Industrial Production MoM FEB -4.7% 3.2% ®
07:30 AM
GB
Halifax House Price Index MoM MAR 1.1% 0% ®