In the US, the minutes from the last FOMC meeting are due Wednesday, with investors hoping they might provide some clarity on policymakers' next move. In March, the Federal Reserve signaled it would hold interest rates at record low levels through 2023, despite revising up its GDP forecasts for 2021 and 2022 due to the approval of President Biden’s $1.9-trillion recovery package and the ongoing COVID-19 vaccination programme.
The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI survey should signal a sharp acceleration in service activity growth during March, suggesting the world's largest economy consolidated its recovery from last year's massive slump. Other notable publications are foreign trade, factory orders, producer prices, JOLTs Job Openings, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, and the final readings of Markit Services PMI and wholesale inventories.
Elsewhere in America, key data to follow include Canada employment figures, trade balance, and Ivey PMIs; Brazil inflation rate and Markit Services PMI; and Mexico consumer prices, consumer and business sentiment, industrial production and Markit Manufacturing PMI. The central bank of Mexico is also set to publish its monetary policy meeting minutes.
In the UK, the economic calendar will be soft, with final Markit services and composite PMIs, construction PMI, Halifax house price index and new car sales. Preliminary data showed business activity across the UK private sector increased in March and the rate of expansion was the fastest for seven months.
Elsewhere in Europe, the ECB publishes its monetary policy meeting accounts. In March, policymakers signaled faster money printing over the second quarter of the year while maintaining the same PEPP total envelope. Meantime, Germany industrial production is set to rebound despite factory orders seen rising at a softer pace while France industrial output growth is likely to ease from a 6-month high. Other key highlights include: Eurozone unemployment rate, including those for Italy and Spain; Germany foreign trade and current account; France balance of trade; Italy retail trade; Spain consumer confidence and industrial activity; Switzerland unemployment rate; Poland interest rate decision; and Turkey consumer and producer inflation. Also, updates on Markit services and composite PMIs will be published for several European countries.
In Asia, China will publish inflation data and the Caixin Services PMI for March, providing an insight of the post-pandemic economic recovery. Meanwhile in Japan, the Jibun Bank will be releasing its final reading for March's Services PMI. Other important releases include consumer morale, current account, Eco Watchers survey and household spending.
The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of India will hold their monetary policy meetings, but no changes are expected. On the economic data front, important releases for Australia include Ai Group services and construction indexes, and the final estimates of building permits and Markit Services PMI; while in India the Markit PMI surveys will be in the spotlight.