The Brazilian real traded slightly higher around 5.7 per USD at the beginning of April, amid a slightly softer dollar and steady Treasury yields. Domestically, mounting concerns over the pandemic crisis and Brazil's fiscal accounts alongside political woes continued to worry investors. On the macro front, Brazil central bank's ‘FOCUS’ survey showed average year-end inflation forecast inching up to 4.9% from 4.8%, even further above the central bank’s goal of 3.75%. Also, Brazil’s 2021 interest rate outlook rose further to 5.25% from 5.00% the week before, and 4.50% four weeks ago. Meantime, recent data showed Brazil's annual inflation rose above 6% in March for the first time in more than four years, well above the central bank's official target of 3.75%, supporting expectations of another hike in the Selic rate in May.
Historically, the Brazilian Real reached an all time high of 770.43 in September of 2020. Brazilian Real - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on April of 2021.
The Brazilian Real is expected to trade at 5.79 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 5.98 in 12 months time.