The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia edged down 0.1% mom in December 2022, the same pace as in November. Meanwhile, the six-month annualized growth rate in the index, indicating the likely pace of economic activity relative to the trend three to nine months into the future, was at -0.97% in December, largely unchanged from the prior figure, marking the fifth month of negative print. "The key driver of the slowdown will be the consumer as elevated interest rates and negative real wages growth take their toll on spending," said Westpac chief economist Bill Evans. "However, there is unusual uncertainty around this outlook, particularly with respect to the household sector where large excess savings accumulated during the pandemic are providing a buffer against rising interest rates and cost of living pressures, especially for households in higher income groups." source: Melbourne Institute

Leading Economic Index in Australia averaged 0.00 percent from 1960 until 2022, reaching an all time high of 0.64 percent in November of 2020 and a record low of -1.93 percent in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - Australia Leading Economic Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. Australia Leading Economic Index - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on January of 2023.

Leading Economic Index in Australia is expected to be -0.10 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations.

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Australia Leading Economic Index



Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2022-12-21 12:30 AM Nov -0.1% -0.1% -0.3%
2023-01-25 12:00 AM Dec -0.1% -0.1% -0.2%
2023-02-20 12:00 AM Jan -0.1%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Leading Economic Index -0.10 -0.10 percent Dec 2022

Australia Leading Economic Index
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity combines a selection of economic variables that typically lead fluctuations in economic activity into a single measure that provides a reliable cyclical indicator for the Australian economy. The index includes the following components: S&P/ASX 200, dwelling approvals, US industrial production, RBA Commodity Prices Index (A$), aggregate monthly hours worked, Westpac-MI CSI expectations index, Westpac-MI Unemployment expectations index, yield spread (10Y bond – 90D bill). The index has a base value of 100 as of 1996.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-0.10 -0.10 0.64 -1.93 1960 - 2022 percent Monthly
1996=100

News Stream
Australia Leading Index Stays Weak
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia edged down 0.1% mom in December 2022, the same pace as in November. Meanwhile, the six-month annualized growth rate in the index, indicating the likely pace of economic activity relative to the trend three to nine months into the future, was at -0.97% in December, largely unchanged from the prior figure, marking the fifth month of negative print. "The key driver of the slowdown will be the consumer as elevated interest rates and negative real wages growth take their toll on spending," said Westpac chief economist Bill Evans. "However, there is unusual uncertainty around this outlook, particularly with respect to the household sector where large excess savings accumulated during the pandemic are providing a buffer against rising interest rates and cost of living pressures, especially for households in higher income groups."
2023-01-25
Australia Leading Index Signals Weak Growth Outlook
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia fell 0.1% to 97.64 in November 2022 from a revised 97.77 in October, while the six-month annualized growth rate declined further, suggesting that the Australian economy will grow at a below-trend pace in the next three to nine months. The report said: “The growth rate of the Leading Index continues to hold in negative territory. November is the fourth consecutive month that the growth rate has been negative. That first negative signal in August was consistent with a below trend growth pace in late 2022 and well into 2023. The persistence of these negative prints confirms the sustained below trend outlook for the Australian economy in 2023.”
2022-12-21
Australia Leading Index Signals Further Weakness
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia was unchanged month-on-month in September 2022 after posting a downwardly revised -0.2% in August, signaling further weakness in the economy. Meanwhile, the six-month annualized growth rate in the index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to the trend three to nine months into the future, fell to -1.15% in September from -0.33% in August, the weakest since the pandemic first hit in 2020. The Leading Index continues to point to a material loss in momentum to a below-trend growth pace heading into 2023, broadly in line with Westpac’s forecast that economic growth will slow from 3.4% in 2022 to 1.0% in 2023, highlighted by a sharp slowdown in consumer spending. That slowdown is likely to intensify through 2023 as rising interest rates and a softening labor market take their toll, the report said.
2022-10-19