The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia edged down 0.02 percent month-over-month in September of 2021, after a 0.27 percent fall a month earlier. This was the fifth straight month of drop in the index but the softest pace in the sequence. Meantime, the six-month annualized growth rate which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to the trend of three to nine months, fell to -0.5% from +0.5% in August, marking the first negative reading since September last year when the economy was moving out of COVID lockdowns. The leading index growth rate has fallen steeply over the last five months. "As we saw in 2020, the index is likely to recover quite quickly as Sydney and Melbourne reopen, consistent with that strong outlook for the first half of 2022," Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said. source: Westpac Banking Corporation, Melbourne Institute

Leading Economic Index in Australia averaged 0 percent from 1960 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 0.76 percent in November of 2020 and a record low of -1.74 percent in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - Australia Leading Economic Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. Australia Leading Economic Index - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on October of 2021.

Leading Economic Index in Australia is expected to be 0.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the Australia Leading Economic Index is projected to trend around 0.20 percent in 2022, according to our econometric models.

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Australia Leading Economic Index


Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2021-09-22 01:00 AM Aug -0.3% -0.12% -0.1%
2021-10-20 12:00 AM Sep -0.02% -0.27% -0.1%
2021-11-17 12:00 AM Oct -0.02%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Leading Economic Index -0.02 -0.27 percent Sep/21

News Stream
Australia Leading Index Falls for 5th Month
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia edged down 0.02 percent month-over-month in September of 2021, after a 0.27 percent fall a month earlier. This was the fifth straight month of drop in the index but the softest pace in the sequence. Meantime, the six-month annualized growth rate which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to the trend of three to nine months, fell to -0.5% from +0.5% in August, marking the first negative reading since September last year when the economy was moving out of COVID lockdowns. The leading index growth rate has fallen steeply over the last five months. "As we saw in 2020, the index is likely to recover quite quickly as Sydney and Melbourne reopen, consistent with that strong outlook for the first half of 2022," Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said.
2021-10-20
Australia Leading Index Drops for 4th Month
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia declined 0.3 percent month-over-month in August of 2021, after a 0.12 percent fall a month earlier. This was the fourth straight month of drop in the index and the steepest rate in the sequence. Meantime, the six-month annualized growth rate which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to the trend of three to nine months, advanced 0.5%. "The leading index has held up surprisingly well during this downturn but it seems likely that there is more weakness on the way," Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said. "By December we would be expecting to see signs of this recovery in the leading index as it paves the way for a very strong rebound in 2022."
2021-09-22
Australia Leading Index Drops for 3rd Month
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia declined 0.12 percent month-over-month in July of 2021, after a 0.06 percent fall a month earlier, pointing to the third straight month of drop. Meantime, the six-month annualized growth rate which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to the trend of three to nine months, advanced 1.3%. "We are expecting growth to resume at a solid above-trend pace once the economy emerges from current lockdowns but are mindful of the uncertainties associated with the current health situation," the Westpac said. It added that no leading index can accurately predict the impact of sudden lockdowns, although the direct effects of measures will start to become more apparent in August.
2021-08-18

Australia Leading Economic Index
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity combines a selection of economic variables that typically lead fluctuations in economic activity into a single measure that provides a reliable cyclical indicator for the Australian economy. The index includes the following components: S&P/ASX 200, dwelling approvals, US industrial production, RBA Commodity Prices Index (A$), aggregate monthly hours worked, Westpac-MI CSI expectations index, Westpac-MI Unemployment expectations index, yield spread (10Y bond – 90D bill). The index has a base value of 100 as of 1996.