The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia was flat from the prior month in April 2023, almost the same reading as in March. Meanwhile, the six-month annualized growth rate in the index, indicating the likely pace of economic activity relative to the trend three to nine months into the future, fell to -0.78% in April from -0.69% in the previous month. It was the ninth month of negative print, highlighting that the slowdown which began late last year is likely to extend through to the end of 2023 and into early 2024. "Westpac expects growth of just 1% in 2023 with this lackluster performance continuing in 2024 which is expected to show only a slight lift to 1.5%, said senior economist Matthew Hassan. "The Reserve Bank expects a similar, but slightly firmer, profile with growth forecast to slow to 1.2% in 2023, lifting to 1.7% in 2024. In both cases, activity contracts in per capita terms." source: Melbourne Institute

Leading Economic Index in Australia averaged 0.00 percent from 1960 until 2023, reaching an all time high of 0.68 percent in November of 2020 and a record low of -1.93 percent in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - Australia Leading Economic Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. Australia Leading Economic Index - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on June of 2023.

Leading Economic Index in Australia is expected to be -0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the Australia Leading Economic Index is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2024 and 0.30 percent in 2025, according to our econometric models.

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Australia Leading Economic Index



Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2023-04-19 01:00 AM Mar -0.01% -0.06% -0.1%
2023-05-24 01:00 AM Apr 0.0% -0.01% 0.2%
2023-06-21 01:00 AM May 0.0% -0.1%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Leading Economic Index -0.03 0.01 percent Apr 2023

Australia Leading Economic Index
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity combines a selection of economic variables that typically lead fluctuations in economic activity into a single measure that provides a reliable cyclical indicator for the Australian economy. The index includes the following components: S&P/ASX 200, dwelling approvals, US industrial production, RBA Commodity Prices Index (A$), aggregate monthly hours worked, Westpac-MI CSI expectations index, Westpac-MI Unemployment expectations index, yield spread (10Y bond – 90D bill). The index has a base value of 100 as of 1996.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-0.03 0.01 0.68 -1.93 1960 - 2023 percent Monthly
1996=100

News Stream
Australia Leading Index Stays Flat
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia was flat from the prior month in April 2023, almost the same reading as in March. Meanwhile, the six-month annualized growth rate in the index, indicating the likely pace of economic activity relative to the trend three to nine months into the future, fell to -0.78% in April from -0.69% in the previous month. It was the ninth month of negative print, highlighting that the slowdown which began late last year is likely to extend through to the end of 2023 and into early 2024. "Westpac expects growth of just 1% in 2023 with this lackluster performance continuing in 2024 which is expected to show only a slight lift to 1.5%, said senior economist Matthew Hassan. "The Reserve Bank expects a similar, but slightly firmer, profile with growth forecast to slow to 1.2% in 2023, lifting to 1.7% in 2024. In both cases, activity contracts in per capita terms."
2023-05-24
Australia Leading Index Nearly Flat
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia was almost flat from the prior month in March 2023, compared with a 0.06% drop in February. Meanwhile, the six-month annualized growth rate in the index, indicating the likely pace of economic activity relative to the trend three to nine months into the future, was lifted slightly to –0.75% from -0.79% in February, marking the eighth month of negative print. "The index for March is now consistent with below-trend growth extending throughout the remainder of this year," said Westpac chief economist Bill Evans. "While we see the household sector at the center of this, slowdown in the components of the index is also highlighting the drag from dwelling construction and the slowdown in the world economy.” Westpac continues to forecast a further increase in the cash rate at the May meeting of 0.25% to a peak of 3.85%., Evans added.
2023-04-19
Australia Leading Index Down 0.06% MoM
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia fell 0.06% mom in February 2023 after a 0.12% drop in January. Meanwhile, the six-month annualized growth rate in the index, indicating the likely pace of economic activity relative to the trend three to nine months into the future, was lifted slightly to –0.94% from -1.04% in the previous period, marking the seventh month of negative print. "Growth in the economy will be only 1% in 2023," said Westpac chief economist Bill Evans. "The slowdown reflects the lagged effects of rising interest rates; a deep shock to real wages; a bottoming out of the savings rate, and falling house prices," he added. Recent developments in the global banking system are unlikely to impact Australia's financial system significantly. Still, they will become a headwind for the major economies by reducing credit availability and knocking down confidence.
2023-03-22