The Stanbic Bank Zambia PMI fell to 46.9 in December 2019 from 48.7 in the prior month, signalling the fastest contraction in private activity since August. Both output and new orders declined at a faster pace while employment levels were unchanged in December, ending a three-month sequence of job creation. Composite Pmi in Zambia averaged 49.36 points from 2017 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 54.70 points in November of 2017 and a record low of 43.70 points in October of 2018. source: Markit Economics

Composite Pmi in Zambia is expected to be 50.00 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Composite Pmi in Zambia to stand at 49.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Stanbic Bank Zambia Composite PMI is projected to trend around 50.00 points in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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Stanbic Bank Zambia Composite PMI

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
46.90 48.70 54.70 43.70 2017 - 2019 points Monthly

News Stream
Zambia Private Sector Activity Continues to Shrink
The Stanbic Bank Zambia PMI edged up to 48.7 in November of 2019 from 48.3 in October, pointing to the ninth straight month of contraction in private sector activity, with power cuts adding to challenging economic conditions. New orders fell only slightly, but output was down at a solid pace. On the other hand, employment increased for the third month running. On the price front, marginal increases in purchase prices and staff costs were recorded and output prices were also up modestly, and at the second-weakest pace in 14 months. Finally, business confidence picked up to an eight-month high amid hopes of a more stable business environment, including a strengthening of the kwacha against the US dollar.

Zambia Private Sector Contraction Continues
The Stanbic Bank Zambia PMI dropped to 48.3 in October 2019 from 48.8 in the previous month, signalling a further modest deterioration in operating conditions in the country's private sector. There was a sharper contraction in business activity due to a lack of money in circulation and power cuts, while new orders declined the least for eight months amid some signs of demand improving. Employment rose only marginally while companies continued to reduce their backlogs of work. On the price front, input cost inflation eased to a seven-month low while output charge inflation was the weakest in 13 months. Looking ahead, business confidence improved from September's 39-month low, but remained below the series average.

Zambia Private Sector Activity Shrinks for 7th Month
The Stanbic Bank Zambia increased to 48.8 in September 2019 from 46 in August. The reading pointed to the seventh consecutive contraction in the private sector, still the weakest in the current sequence of deterioration, as output dropped at the softest pace in six months. Also, new orders declined at a slower rate amid signs of customer demand improving and employment rose for the first time in six months boosted by efforts to improve operating capacity. Backlogs of work continued to drop, albeit at the weakest pace since July last year. Meantime, stocks of inputs went up, amid improvements in demand and suppliers' delivery times lengthened for the first time in 22 months. On the price front, input cost inflation rose due to currency weakness and output price inflation eased to a six-month low. Looking ahead, sentiment declined to a 39-month low mostly due to concerns about market conditions and unpredictability around the future.

Zambia Private Sector Contracts Less in August
The Stanbic Bank Zambia rose to 46.0 in August 2019 from 44.4 in the previous month, signalling a sixth successive monthly deterioration in the country's business conditions but at a softer pace. Output, employment and purchasing activity decreased less. However, new orders fell steeply, amid a lack of money and low customer numbers. Despite the reduction in operating capacity, companies were still able to work through outstanding business, which led backlogs to decline for the fourteenth month running. On the price front, overall input costs increased at the slowest pace since April. Also, output prices increased the least in four months, as firms offered discounts as part of efforts to attract clients. Looking ahead, business sentiment remained positive, on hopes of an improvement in business conditions.

Zambia Private Sector Contraction Deepens in July
The Stanbic Bank Zambia PMI dropped to 44.4 in July 2019 from 46.6 in the previous month, signalling a fifth successive monthly deterioration in the country's business conditions and at a sharper pace. Output, new orders and employment fell further, amid a lack of money in the economy and weaker demand. Also, purchasing activity decreased and at a solid pace as firms were reluctant to hold excess stock in a weak demand environment. This led inventories to fall for the fifth month in a row. On the price front, both input prices and output prices continued to rise sharply, linked to the weakness of the Zambian kwacha and higher fuel prices. Lastly, business sentiment reached a four-month high, amid hopes that economic conditions will recover over the coming year.

Zambia Private Sector Shrinks Less in June
The Stanbic Bank Zambia PMI rose to 46.6 in June 2019 from 43.9 in the previous month, signalling a fourth successive monthly deterioration in the health of the Zambian private sector, though at a softer pace. Output, new orders and employment continued to decline but less, linked to currency weakness and delays in receiving payments from customers. As a result, backlogs of work fell and purchasing activity decreased for the fourth month running. In terms of prices, input inflation accelerated markedly and output charge inflation hit a 43-month high. Looking ahead, companies remained optimistic, amid hopes that market conditions would improve over the coming year.

Stanbic Bank Zambia Composite PMI
The Stanbic Bank Zambia Purchasing Managers’ Index is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in approximately 400 private sector companies, which have been carefully selected to accurately represent the true structure of the Zambian economy, including agriculture, construction, industry, services and wholesale & retail. The panel is stratified by GDP and company workforce size. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month based on data collected mid-month. A reading above 50 indicates an overall increase in that variable, below 50 an overall decrease. The Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) is a composite index based on five of the individual sub-components with the following weights: New Orders - 0.3, Output - 0.25, Employment - 0.2, Suppliers’ Delivery Times - 0.15, Stock of Items Purchased - 0.1, with the Suppliers’ Delivery Times sub-component inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction.

Zambia Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Internet Speed 2303.04 2325.33 2325.33 117.23 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 248931.00 252039.00 267895.00 3301.00 IP [+]
Ease of Doing Business 85.00 87.00 99.00 80.00 [+]
Electricity Production 3701.86 3691.03 3701.86 2601.39 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 35.00 37.00 38.00 25.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 105.00 96.00 123.00 52.00 [+]
Competitiveness Index 46.51 46.05 46.51 3.16 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 120.00 118.00 122.00 93.00 [+]
Composite Pmi 46.90 48.70 54.70 43.70 points [+]