Vietnam - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Vietnam including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Vietnam economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 6.79 7.1 6.9 6.4 6.1 6.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 2.01 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 percent
Inflation Rate 3.98 3.7 4 3.9 3.8 3.5 percent
Interest Rate 6.25 6.25 6 6 6 5.5 percent
Balance of Trade -100.00 300 -1600 -1600 -355 -1400 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 61.50 61 61 60 60 58 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 23345.00
23300 23300 23300 23300 23300
Stock Market 1010.74
points
971 954 937 920 857
Government Bond 10y 4.96
percent
5.25 5.32 5.4 5.47 5.78
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 6.79
percent
7.1 6.9 6.4 6.1 6.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.79
percent
7.1 6.9 6.4 6.1 6.5
GDP 223.86
USD Billion
242 242 255 255 269
GDP Constant Prices 1466960.00
VND Billion
2283210 3412625 678028 1556445 3877954
Gross National Product 4764958.00
VND Billion
4447017 4984146 5069915 5055620 5663759
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1190474.59
VND Billion
1104009 1245236 1266665 1263094 1415031
GDP per capita 1834.65
USD
1910 1910 1990 1990 2100
GDP per capita PPP 6171.88
USD
6256 6256 6500 6500 6800
GDP From Agriculture 223482.00
VND Billion
344876 504608 74740 237114 573414
GDP From Construction 79553.00
VND Billion
130858 215087 34458 84406 244415
GDP From Manufacturing 275737.00
VND Billion
408024 592668 130212 292557 673481
GDP From Mining 87660.00
VND Billion
139620 224318 41298 93007 254905
GDP From Public Administration 42172.00
VND Billion
62994 94215 19897 44744 107062
GDP From Services 558608.00
VND Billion
887506 1324048 276807 592683 1504588
GDP From Transport 43219.00
VND Billion
67313 99264 21379 45855 112800
GDP From Utilities 9182.00
VND Billion
14167 20222 4361 9742 22980
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.01
percent
2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4
Employed Persons 54.10
Million
54.4 54.3 54.6 54.7 55.6
Unemployed Persons 1.11
Million
1.1 1.2 1.1 1 1.3
Minimum Wages 3980.00
VND Thousand/Month
3980 3980 4210 4210 4450
Population 95.50
Million
96.4 96.4 97.1 97.1 98.4
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Women 55.00
55 55 55 55 55
Wages 5066.00
VND Thousand/Month
5500 5460 6200 5900 6900
Wages High Skilled 11409900.00
VND/Month
12100000 12100000 12300000 12300000 12900000
Wages In Manufacturing 4999.00
VND Thousand/Month
5210 5820 6100 5900 6750
Wages Low Skilled 4851300.00
VND/Month
4901300 4901300 4927000 4927000 5207510
Youth Unemployment Rate 7.30
percent
7.5 7.9 8.1 8.4 8.5
Labor Force Participation Rate 76.90
percent
77.2 77.4 77.1 76.9 77.8
Living Wage Family 7475300.00
VND/Month
7500000 7500000 7580000 7580000 7800000
Living Wage Individual 4131400.00
VND/Month
4150000 4150000 4220000 4220000 4300000
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.98
percent
3.7 4 3.9 3.8 3.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 110.43
Index Points
111 112 113 114 120
Core Inflation Rate 1.54
percent
1.5 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.7
GDP Deflator 153.44
Index Points
158 158 165 165 172
Export Prices 109.00
Index Points
108 108 100 100 107
Import Prices 105.40
Index Points
103 103 106 106 108
Producer Prices 103.02
Index Points
110 119 109 109 132
Inflation Rate Mom 0.45
percent
0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.2
CPI Transportation 93.95
Index Points
91.01 93.18 94.24 97.9 100
Food Inflation 3.78
percent
4.7 4.9 4.5 4.4 4
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 6.25
percent
6.25 6 6 6 5.5
Interbank Rate 4.35
percent
4.35 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.6
Money Supply M0 977907.00
VND Billion
870000 870000 885000 885000 925000
Money Supply M1 1982009.00
VND Billion
1780000 1780000 2250000 2250000 2550000
Money Supply M2 8192548.00
VND Billion
7770000 7770000 8290000 8290000 9150000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 49497.31
USD Million
53000 53000 59600 59600 60000
Deposit Interest Rate 4.78
percent
4.78 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.03
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -100.00
USD Million
300 -1600 -1600 -355 -1400
Exports 23480.00
USD Million
19700 20200 19400 19245 24300
Imports 21280.00
USD Million
19200 20800 21000 19600 22700
Current Account 4300.00
USD Million
4000 1800 1720 2700 2730
Current Account to GDP 2.90
percent
0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 1
External Debt 91207.60
USD Million
95400 95400 101500 101500 121500
Terms of Trade 103.42
Index Points
104 104 94.62 94.62 99.07
Foreign Direct Investment 11.25
USD Billion
13.2 19.1 4.5 9.5 22.5
Terrorism Index 0.00
0 0 0 0 0
Tourist Arrivals 1323.50
Thousand
1005 1285 1200 1450 1470
Capital Flows 3000.00
USD Million
2600 1280 3700 4340 700
Crude Oil Production 242.00
BBL/D/1K
257 259 257 255 280
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 61.50
percent
61 61 60 60 58
Government Budget -3.50
percent of GDP
-3.4 -3.4 -3.2 -3.2 -3.5
Government Budget Value -174300.00
VND Billion
-190000 -190000 -160000 -160000 -120000
Government Spending 325803.97
VND Billion
303511 340791 346655 345678 387260
Government Revenues 1288665.00
VND Billion
1300000 1300000 1370000 1370000 1450000
Fiscal Expenditure 1462965.00
VND Billion
1490000 1490000 1530000 1530000 1570000
Military Expenditure 4961.80
USD Million
5250 5250 5500 5500 5800
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Manufacturing PMI 53.70
52 54.7 54.4 52.3 53
Industrial Production 13.40
percent
8.6 8.1 8.4 9.1 6.9
Manufacturing Production 16.00
percent
14.5 8.9 14.7 12.9 7.7
Changes in Inventories 140219.87
VND Billion
137000 137000 142700 142700 159000
Car Registrations 19213.00
18700 20500 21600 23500 27200
Internet Speed 9503.83
KBps
11000 11500 12400 12900 15500
IP Addresses 8616202.00
IP
8625000 8645000 8570000 8620000 8740000
Mining Production 2.40
percent
-2.5 -1.8 -2.6 -3.1 3.3
Competitiveness Index 4.36
Points
4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7
Competitiveness Rank 55.00
54 54 53 53 54
Ease of Doing Business 68.00
67 67 65 65 66
Electricity Production 18800.00
Gigawatt-hour
18600 18850 19000 19200 20500
Corruption Index 35.00
Points
35 35 35 35 37
Corruption Rank 107.00
108 108 107 107 110
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Retail Sales Yoy 12.60
percent
11.2 9.3 8.8 10.9 10.6
Consumer Spending 3405750.02
VND Billion
3195861 3562415 3623718 3613501 4048168
Retail Sales Mom -1.50
percent
2 3.1 2.2 1.4 2.3
Gasoline Prices 0.84
USD/Liter
0.81 0.76 0.72 0.68 0.54
Consumer Confidence 124.00
Index Points
120 122 123 124 115
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate 26.00
percent
26 26 26 26 26
Social Security Rate For Companies 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00
percent
8 8 8 8 8
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 93.32
mm
267 149 33.91 159 155
Temperature 22.08
celsius
26.48 21.9 20.47 24.92 24.28