The US annual inflation rate fell to 1.6 percent in June 2019 from 1.8 percent in the previous month, as food prices rose at a softer pace while energy cost continued to decline. The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, edged up to 2.1 percent, beating forecast of 2 percent. On a monthly basis, the core index increased 0.3 percent, the most since January 2018. Inflation Rate in the United States averaged 3.26 percent from 1914 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 23.70 percent in June of 1920 and a record low of -15.80 percent in June of 1921.

Inflation Rate in the United States is expected to be 1.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Inflation Rate in the United States to stand at 1.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Inflation Rate is projected to trend around 1.90 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Inflation Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-04-10 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY Mar 1.9% 1.5% 1.8% 1.7%
2019-05-10 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY Apr 2% 1.9% 2.1% 1.9%
2019-06-12 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY May 1.8% 2% 1.9% 1.9%
2019-07-11 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY Jun 1.6% 1.8% 1.6% 1.7%
2019-08-13 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY Jul 1.6% 1.7%
2019-09-12 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY Aug 1.9%
2019-10-10 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY Sep 1.7%



US Inflation Rate Falls to 4-Month Low

The US annual inflation rate fell to 1.6 percent in June 2019 from 1.8 percent in the previous month and in line with market expectations.

Energy prices plunged 3.4 percent, following a 0.5 percent fall in the previous month. Within energy commodities, gasoline cost declined 5.4 percent (vs -0.2 percent in May) and fuel oil went down 5.6 percent (vs -0.8 percent in May). Within energy services, electricity prices retreated 0.3 percent (vs -0.2 percent in May) and utility (piped) gas service cost dropped 2.1 percent (vs -2.6 percent in May). Declines were also seen in cost of apparel (-1.3 percent vs -3.1 percent) and medical care commodities (-1.5 percent vs -0.7 percent).

Food inflation eased to 1.9 percent in June from 2 percent in May, due in particular to food at home (0.9 percent vs 1.2 percent) while costs of food away from home rose at faster pace (3.1 percent vs 2.9 percent). Additional price increases were recorded for transportation services (0.9 percent vs 1.1 percent); medical care services (2.8 percent); shelter (3.5 percent vs 3.3 percent); new vehicles (0.6 percent vs 0.9 percent); and used cars and trucks (1.2 percent vs 0.3 percent).

The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, edged up to 2.1 percent in June from 2 percent in May, beating market consensus of 2 percent.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices gained 0.1 percent in June, the same pace as in May and below expectations of 0.2 percent. The food index was unchanged while the energy index fell 2.3 percent. Additional upward pressure came from shelter, used cars and trucks, and apparel, the indexes for household furnishings and operations, medical care, and motor vehicle insurance; while declines were seen in recreation, airline fares, and personal care. Core consumer prices increased 0.3 percent, the largest increase since January 2018 and also above forecasts of 0.2 percent.


BLS | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
7/11/2019 12:56:54 PM



United States Prices Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Inflation Rate 1.60 1.80 23.70 -15.80 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.10 1.80 -1.80 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 255.31 255.16 255.31 23.51 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 262.80 262.03 262.80 28.50 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.10 2.00 13.60 0.00 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 111.37 111.19 111.37 12.85 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 118.30 118.20 118.30 100.20 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.70 1.80 19.57 -6.86 percent [+]
Export Prices 125.90 126.90 135.30 82.40 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 125.60 126.80 147.50 75.00 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.90 2.00 36.70 -34.30 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 266.46 265.14 266.46 30.50 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 213.07 215.39 223.54 22.30 Index Points [+]
Core Pce Price Index 111.60 111.39 111.60 16.73 Index Points [+]
Core Producer Prices 117.90 117.50 117.90 99.90 Index Points [+]
Pce Price Index 109.73 109.55 109.73 16.07 Index Points [+]
Inflation Expectations 2.67 2.45 3.40 2.42 percent [+]


United States Inflation Rate

In the United States, unadjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers is based on the prices of a market basket of: food (14 percent of total weight), energy (9.3 percent), commodities less food and energy commodities (19.4 percent) and services less energy services (57.3 percent). The last category is divided by: shelter (32.1 percent), medical care services (5.8 percent) and transportation services (5.5 percent). This page provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. United States Inflation Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on July of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
1.60 1.80 23.70 -15.80 1914 - 2019 percent Monthly
1982-1984=100, NSA




Country Last Previous
Argentina 55.80 Jun/19
Australia 1.30 Mar/19
Brazil 3.37 Jun/19
Canada 2.00 Jun/19
China 2.70 Jun/19
Euro Area 1.30 Jun/19
France 1.20 Jun/19
Germany 1.60 Jun/19
India 3.18 Jun/19
Indonesia 3.28 Jun/19
Italy 0.70 Jun/19
Japan 0.70 Jun/19
Mexico 3.95 Jun/19
Netherlands 2.70 Jun/19
Russia 4.70 Jun/19
Saudi Arabia -1.50 May/19
Singapore 0.90 May/19
South Africa 4.50 May/19
South Korea 0.70 Jun/19
Spain 0.40 Jun/19
Switzerland 0.60 Jun/19
Turkey 15.72 Jun/19
United Kingdom 2.00 Jun/19
United States 1.60 Jun/19


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