Consumer prices in the United States increased 1.5 percent year-on-year in February of 2019, following a 1.6 percent rise in January and below market expectations of 1.6 percent. It is the lowest inflation rate since September of 2016, mainly due to a fall in cost of gasoline and clothing while prices of electricity stalled. On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.2 percent after a flat reading in January, matching forecasts. It is the first monthly rise in the CPI, due to prices of food, gasoline and rents. Inflation Rate in the United States averaged 3.26 percent from 1914 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 23.70 percent in June of 1920 and a record low of -15.80 percent in June of 1921.

Inflation Rate in the United States is expected to be 1.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Inflation Rate in the United States to stand at 2.10 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Inflation Rate is projected to trend around 2.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Inflation Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-12-12 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 2.2% 2.5% 2.2% 2.4%
2019-01-11 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.9% 2.2% 1.9% 2.2%
2019-02-13 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.6% 1.9% 1.5% 1.9%
2019-03-12 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
2019-04-10 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.5% 1.6%
2019-05-10 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.9%
2019-06-12 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.9%



United States Inflation Rate Lowest since 2016

Consumer prices in the United States increased 1.5 percent year-on-year in February of 2019, following a 1.6 percent rise in January and below market expectations of 1.6 percent. It is the lowest inflation rate since September of 2016, mainly due to a fall in cost of gasoline and clothing while prices of electricity stalled. On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.2 percent after a flat reading in January, matching forecasts. It is the first monthly rise in the CPI, due to prices of food, gasoline and rents.

Year-on-year, prices fell for gasoline (-9.1 pecent compared to -10.1 percent in January); fuel oil (-2.4 percent compared to -8.1 percent); medical care commodities (-1.1 percent compared to -0.3 percent); apparel (-0.8 percent compared to +0.1 percent) and utility piped gas service (-2.6 percent compared to +4.3 percent). Also, prices slowed for transportation services (1.1 percent compared to 2 percent); used cars and trucks (1.1 percent compared to 1.6 percent); and new vehicles (0.3 percent compared to 0 percent) and stalled for electricity (0 percent compared to 1.3 percent). On the other hand, inflation increased for shelter (3.4 percent compared to 3.2 percent) and food (2 percent compared to 1.6 percent) and was flat for medical care services (2.4 percent, the same as in January).

Excluding food and energy, core inflation rate edged down to 2.1 percent from 2.2 percent in January, below forecasts of 2.2 percent.

Month-over-month, the indexes for shelter and food increased, and the gasoline index rose after recent declines to result in the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The food index rose 0.4 percent, its largest monthly increase since May 2014, as both the food at home and food away from home indexes increased. The gasoline index rose 1.5 percent in February, following three consecutive monthly declines, resulting in the energy index rising 0.4 percent despite declines in the electricity and natural gas indexes.   

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in February after rising 0.2 percent in January, matching market expectations. Along with the shelter index, the indexes or personal care, apparel, and education all increased. The indexes for recreation, medical care, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles all declined in February. 


BLS | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com
3/12/2019 12:56:25 PM



United States Prices Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Inflation Rate 1.50 1.60 23.70 -15.80 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 0.00 1.80 -1.80 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 252.78 252.67 252.79 23.51 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 261.11 260.70 261.11 28.50 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.10 2.20 13.60 0.00 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 111.22 110.68 111.22 12.85 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 117.20 117.10 117.50 100.20 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.90 2.00 19.57 -6.86 percent [+]
Export Prices 126.20 125.40 135.30 82.40 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 125.20 124.50 147.50 75.00 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.00 1.60 36.70 -34.30 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 263.06 262.28 263.06 30.50 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 204.24 202.57 223.54 22.30 Index Points [+]
Core Pce Price Index 110.92 110.72 110.92 16.73 Index Points [+]
Core Producer Prices 116.90 116.80 116.90 99.90 Index Points [+]
Pce Price Index 108.93 108.87 108.93 16.07 Index Points [+]
Inflation Expectations 2.79 2.97 3.40 2.42 percent [+]


United States Inflation Rate

In the United States, unadjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers is based on the prices of a market basket of: food (14 percent of total weight), energy (9.3 percent), commodities less food and energy commodities (19.4 percent) and services less energy services (57.3 percent). The last category is divided by: shelter (32.1 percent), medical care services (5.8 percent) and transportation services (5.5 percent). This page provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. United States Inflation Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on March of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
1.50 1.60 23.70 -15.80 1914 - 2019 percent Monthly
1982-1984=100, NSA




Country Last Previous
Argentina 50.70 Feb/19
Australia 1.80 Dec/18
Brazil 3.89 Feb/19
Canada 1.40 Jan/19
China 1.50 Feb/19
Euro Area 1.50 Feb/19
France 1.30 Feb/19
Germany 1.50 Feb/19
India 2.57 Feb/19
Indonesia 2.57 Feb/19
Italy 1.00 Feb/19
Japan 0.20 Jan/19
Mexico 3.94 Feb/19
Netherlands 2.60 Feb/19
Russia 5.20 Feb/19
Saudi Arabia -1.90 Jan/19
Singapore 0.40 Jan/19
South Africa 4.00 Jan/19
South Korea 0.50 Feb/19
Spain 1.10 Feb/19
Switzerland 0.60 Feb/19
Turkey 19.67 Feb/19
United Kingdom 1.80 Jan/19
United States 1.50 Feb/19


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