The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note climbed above 3.83%, reaching its highest level since March 9, boosted by stronger-than-expected data, which raised expectations of additional tightening by the Federal Reserve. The core PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose to 4.7% in April, surpassing expectations of 4.6%. Also, personal spending rose more than expected, and durable goods orders unexpectedly increased. Meanwhile, investors are eagerly awaiting updates on the ongoing debt ceiling negotiations. A deal between Republican and White House negotiators is nearing completion, according to some sources, further adding to the volatility in the market. US stock and bond markets are closed Monday for the Memorial Day holiday.
Historically, the United States Government Bond 10Y reached an all time high of 15.82 in September of 1981. United States Government Bond 10Y - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on May of 2023.
The United States Government Bond 10Y is expected to trade at 3.86 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 4.23 in 12 months time.