Markets Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020
Currency 98.02 96.06 96.48 96.91 97.33 97.33
Stock Market (points) 25764.00 26245 25910 25577 25250 24609
Government Bond 10Y (%) 2.39 2.54 2.59 2.63 2.67 2.76
Overview Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020
GDP Growth Rate (%) 3.20 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 3.20 2.6 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.7
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.60 3.8 3.7 3.7 4 3.8
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 263.00 182 179 150 180 170
Inflation Rate (%) 2.00 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.8 2
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.30 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.1
Interest Rate (%) 2.50 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -50000.00 -49000 -56000 -60000 -55000 -62000
Current Account (USD Million) -134377.00 -123000 -131000 -134000 -129000 -125000
Current Account to GDP (%) -2.40 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.5 -2.5
Government Debt to GDP (%) 105.40 108 108 108 109 109
Government Budget (% of GDP) -3.80 -5 -5 -5 -4.8 -4.8
Business Confidence (Index Points) 52.80 55 51 53 51 52
Manufacturing PMI 52.60 52.8 51.1 51 51 50.4
Non Manufacturing PMI 55.50 54.2 56 53 52 52
Services PMI (Index Points) 53.00 53 52.4 52.2 52.1 50.8
Consumer Confidence (Index Points) 102.40 96 94 92 88 86.7
Retail Sales MoM (%) -0.20 0.4 0.3 0.3 -0.2 0.4
Building Permits (Thousand) 1296.00 1250 1240 1210 1150 1115
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 37 35 35
GDP Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020
GDP Growth Rate (%) 3.20 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 3.20 2.6 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.7
GDP (USD Billion) 19390.60 20220 20220 20220 20700 20700
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion) 18912.33 18993 19113 19197 19122 19523
Gross National Product (USD Billion) 19007.61 19254 19362 19445 19369 19775
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion) 3370.10 3409 3412 3435 3421 3493
GDP per capita (USD) 53128.54 54100 54100 54100 54800 54800
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 54225.45 56900 56900 56900 58500 58500
GDP From Agriculture (USD Billion) 213.70 223 217 217 216 221
GDP From Construction (USD Billion) 642.70 658 662 661 658 672
GDP From Manufacturing (USD Billion) 2154.90 2181 2191 2189 2180 2226
GDP From Mining (USD Billion) 465.80 441 440 440 438 447
GDP From Public Administration (USD Billion) 2179.80 2232 2233 2231 2222 2269
GDP From Services (USD Billion) 12887.20 13031 13130 13117 13065 13340
GDP From Transport (USD Billion) 543.50 556 559 558 556 568
GDP From Utilities (USD Billion) 281.30 292 288 287 286 292
Labour Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.60 3.8 3.7 3.7 4 3.8
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 263.00 182 179 150 180 170
Government Payrolls (Thousand) 27.00 0 13 8 10 9
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand) 236.00 178 166 142 170 161
Manufacturing Payrolls (Thousand) 4.00 1 6 15 12 -2
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 212.00 209 201 209 216 238
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand) 1660.00 1610 1630 1650 1650 1700
ADP Employment Change (Thousand) 275.00 190 160 145 180 150
Employed Persons (Thousand) 156645.00 156950 157000 157000 157100 154000
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 5824.00 6200 6200 6150 6400 6280
Average Hourly Earnings (%) 0.20 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 34.40 34.5 34.5 34.4 34.5 34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 62.80 63 63 62.9 62.8 62.9
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 0.80 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1
Productivity (Index Points) 106.99 107 107 107 17.3 108
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 7343.00 6730 6300 5500 5800 5200
Job Offers (Thousand) 7488.00 6700 6600 5818 5818 5800
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 40023.00 43000 61000 48000 65000 51000
Wages (USD/Hour) 23.31 23.58 23.82 23.97 24.08 24.93
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 22.04 22.25 22.54 22.77 22.75 23.68
Minimum Wages (USD/Hour) 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25
Employment Cost Index (%) 0.70 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6
Population (Million) 325.72 326 326 326 326 326
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Wages Low Skilled (USD/Month) 1960.00 1830 1834 2034 2031 2116
Wages High Skilled (USD/Month) 4520.00 4503 4512 4692 4683 4879
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 129778.00 130179 130449 130679 130679 131302
Living Wage Family (USD/Month) 2380.00 2361 2365 2470 2466 2569
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 26915.00 26700 26800 27000 2690 2750
Prices Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020
Inflation Rate (%) 2.00 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.8 2
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.30 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.1
Consumer Price Index CPI (Index Points) 254.96 256 256 258 259 263
Core Consumer Prices (Index Points) 261.74 263 264 265 267 271
Core Inflation Rate (%) 2.10 2.1 2 2 2.1 2
GDP Deflator (Index Points) 111.37 117 113 118 118 124
Producer Prices (Index Points) 118.10 119 119 119 120 122
Producer Prices Change (%) 2.20 2.1 2 1.9 1.7 2.2
Food Inflation (%) 1.80 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.9
CPI Housing Utilities (Index Points) 264.45 263 264 266 269 272
CPI Transportation (Index Points) 214.14 219 216 208 213 213
Inflation Expectations (%) 2.60 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.6 2.5
Money Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020
Interest Rate (%) 2.50 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Interbank Rate (%) 2.52 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 3952113.00 4350218 4036945 4305838 4305838 4200000
Private Debt to GDP (%) 202.80 195 205 195 191 191
Trade Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -50000.00 -49000 -56000 -60000 -55000 -62000
Current Account (USD Million) -134377.00 -123000 -131000 -134000 -129000 -125000
Current Account to GDP (%) -2.40 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.5 -2.5
Imports (USD Million) 261968.00 262000 269000 258000 255000 268000
Exports (USD Million) 211966.00 213000 213000 198000 200000 206000
Terms of Trade (Index Points) 105.85 99.65 99.74 99.74 99.74 92.43
Net Long Term Tic Flows (USD Million) -28403.00 49156 49370 49413 49413 49404
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 11683.00 12730 12800 13000 12900 12500
Government Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020
Government Debt to GDP (%) 105.40 108 108 108 109 109
Government Budget (% of GDP) -3.80 -5 -5 -5 -4.8 -4.8
Government Budget Value (USD Million) 160305.00 -58601 -62101 -62737 -62737 -62500
Government Spending (USD Billion) 3207.68 3254 3269 3262 3249 3317
Government Spending To GDP (%) 38.00 38.6 38.6 38.6 38.9 38.9
Taxes Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 37 35 35
Sales Tax Rate (%) 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate (%) 15.30 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
Business Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020
Business Confidence (Index Points) 52.80 55 51 53 51 52
Manufacturing PMI 52.60 52.8 51.1 51 51 50.4
Non Manufacturing PMI 55.50 54.2 56 53 52 52
Services PMI (Index Points) 53.00 53 52.4 52.2 52.1 50.8
Composite Pmi (Index Points) 53.00 54.3 52.2 52 51.9 51.1
Industrial Production (%) 0.90 3 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.1
Industrial Production Mom (%) -0.50 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.5 0.2
Manufacturing Production (%) -0.20 2 1.4 1.8 1.4 0.9
Capacity Utilization (%) 77.93 78.5 79.1 79 78.8 78.6
Durable Goods Orders (%) 2.70 2.2 1.5 -0.5 0.2 1.4
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%) 2.30 1.8 1.1 -0.3 0.1 1.3
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.40 0.5 0.3 -0.2 0.4 1.1
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.80 1.1 0.5 -0.8 0.4 1
Factory Orders (%) 1.90 2.2 1.8 -0.5 0.1 0.8
Business Inventories (%) 0.00 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2
Wholesale Inventories (%) -0.10 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 0.2
Corporate Profits (USD Billion) 2076.20 2131 2145 2159 2159 2213
NFIB Business Optimism Index (Index Points) 103.50 105 102 97 94 93
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Index Points) 16.60 9.41 10 18 18 16
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Index Points) 3.00 11 7 2 -10 -3
Ism New York Index (%) 77.30 53.9 60 57 52 55.9
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Index Points) 17.80 7 5.2 15 8 10
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Index Points) 2.00 11 9.4 8 4 2
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.15 0.22 0.21 -0.3 -0.15 0.05
Chicago Pmi (Index Points) 52.60 53 52 51 50 54
Total Vehicle Sales (Million) 16.40 17 18 17 17 17.3
Car Production (Million Units) 2.42 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.5
Crude Oil Stocks Change (BBL/1Million) 5.43 4.5 3.8 2.7 5 2.6
Gasoline Stocks Change (Thousand Barrels) -1123.00 -1600 -1200 500 500 2000
Natural Gas Stocks Change (Billion cf) 106.00 75 55 -170 -170 -200
API Crude Oil Stock Change (BBL/1Million) 8.60 -3.2 5.2 -3.2 -3.2 2
Mining Production (%) 10.40 11 10 8.5 7 4
Consumer Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020
Consumer Confidence (Index Points) 102.40 96 94 92 88 86.7
Retail Sales MoM (%) -0.20 0.4 0.3 0.3 -0.2 0.4
Retail Sales YoY (%) 3.10 3 4.2 2.9 2 2
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) 0.10 0.2 0.4 0.6 -0.5 0.4
Consumer Spending (USD Billion) 13071.00 13176 13264 13332 13280 13559
Personal Spending (%) 0.90 0.3 0.35 0.5 0.5 0.5
Personal Income (%) 0.10 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3
Personal Savings (%) 6.50 6.8 7 6 6 5.2
Consumer Credit (USD Billion) 10.28 9.07 14.71 12.49 10.48 12.7
Bank Lending Rate (%) 5.50 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
Economic Optimism Index 58.60 51.3 53.9 51 50 49
Redbook Index (%) 5.40 4.8 4 4.5 4.5 4
Chain Store Sales (USD Million) 3690.00 4000 4050 9150 9150 9200
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.74 0.61 0.6 0.58 0.57 0.57
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 76.40 78 78 78 78 79
Housing Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020
Building Permits (Thousand) 1296.00 1250 1240 1210 1150 1115
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 1235.00 1218 1215 1210 1150 1180
New Home Sales (Thousand units) 692.00 540 490 485 510 490
Pending Home Sales (%) -1.20 1.3 2 2.6 0.7 1.2
Existing Home Sales (Thousand) 5210.00 5150 0.01 4800 4900 4600
Construction Spending (%) -0.90 -0.3 0.8 1.1 -0.5 0.4
Housing Index (%) 0.30 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2
Nahb Housing Market Index 66.00 59 55 54 53 50
Mortgage Rate (%) 4.40 4.45 4.45 4.45 4.45 4.45
Mortgage Applications (%) -0.60 -0.8 3.5 2.7 2.7 0.9
Case Shiller Home Price Index (Index Points) 212.70 218 221 220 216 225
Home Ownership Rate (%) 64.20 65 64.8 64.8 64.8 64.5


This page has economic forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy.