United States - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.00 2.6 2.8 2.3 2.3 2 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.00 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.2 percent
Inflation Rate 2.90 3 3 2.9 3 2.5 percent
Interest Rate 2.00 2.25 2.5 2.5 2.75 3 percent
Balance of Trade -43053.00 -42100 -55000 -52000 -34000 -53000 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 105.40 108 108 108 108 109 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 94.50
93.86 94.78 95.7 96 96
Stock Market 25058.12
points
23360 22572 21813 21078 18378
Government Bond 10Y 2.90
percent
2.98 3.14 3.31 3.48 4.28
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.00
percent
2.6 2.8 2.3 2.3 2
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.80
percent
2.5 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6
GDP 19390.60
USD Billion
19800 19800 20220 20220 20700
GDP Constant Prices 17371.85
USD Billion
17593 17753 17806 17806 18725
Gross National Product 17551.88
USD Billion
17787 17941 17991 17991 18923
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3028.87
USD Billion
2989 3054 3105 3105 3221
GDP per capita 53128.54
USD
53500 53500 54100 54100 54800
GDP per capita PPP 54225.45
USD
55220 55220 56900 56900 58500
GDP From Agriculture 149.90
USD Billion
156 156 154 154 164
GDP From Construction 666.90
USD Billion
663 678 684 684 715
GDP From Manufacturing 2000.40
USD Billion
2007 2037 2050 2050 2149
GDP From Mining 392.50
USD Billion
388 398 402 402 420
GDP From Public Administration 2083.90
USD Billion
2139 2143 2136 2136 2260
GDP From Services 11785.60
USD Billion
11958 12048 12080 12080 12708
GDP From Transport 485.70
USD Billion
484 491 498 498 518
GDP From Utilities 278.70
USD Billion
284 291 286 286 307
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.00
percent
3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.2
Non Farm Payrolls 213.00
Thousand
195 165 193 182 170
Government Payrolls 11.00
Thousand
5 12 1 15 11
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 202.00
Thousand
190 160 188 178 161
Manufacturing Payrolls 36.00
Thousand
20 10 12 1 -2
Initial Jobless Claims 207.00
Thousand
215 215 215 215 215
Continuing Jobless Claims 1751.00
Thousand
1774 1788 1794 1796 1798
ADP Employment Change 177.00
Thousand
193 160 181 181 150
Employed Persons 155576.00
Thousand
156010 156392 156730 157031 154000
Unemployed Persons 6564.00
Thousand
6454 6468 6469 6471 6475
Average Hourly Earnings 0.20
percent
0.2 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.22
Average Weekly Hours 34.50
Hours
34.4 34.4 34.51 34.5 34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.90
percent
62.8 62.8 62.7 62.7 62.9
Long Term Unemployment Rate 0.74
percent
0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 -0.2
Youth Unemployment Rate 8.90
percent
8.7 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.4
Productivity 109.05
Index Points
110 110 110 110 113
Labour Costs 110.16
Index Points
111 111 111 112 114
Job Vacancies 6671.00
Thousand
6687 6674 6717 6732 6717
Job Offers 6638.00
Thousand
6913 6919 6917 6915 6911
Challenger Job Cuts 37202.00
Persons
36375 62300 34132 33394 63500
Wages 22.62
USD/Hour
23.35 23.8 24.11 24.49 25.9
Wages in Manufacturing 21.40
USD/Hour
21.87 22.06 22.38 22.75 24.61
Wage Growth 4.89
percent
4.82 4.83 4.83 4.83 4.83
Minimum Wages 7.25
USD/Hour
7.25 7.25 7.5 7.5 7.5
Employment Cost Index 0.80
percent
0.66 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.68
Population 325.72
Million
328 328 329 329 335
Retirement Age Women 66.00
66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 66.00
66 66 66 66 66
Wages Low Skilled 2090.00
USD/Month
2150 2150 2150 2150 2200
Wages High Skilled 4290.00
USD/Month
4500 4500 4500 4550 4550
Employment Rate 60.40
percent
60.5 60.5 60.5 60.6 60.7
Full Time Employment 128568.00
Thousand
129148 129598 129979 130303 131779
Living Wage Family 2240.00
USD/Month
2300 2300 2380 2380 2380
Living Wage Individual 1540.00
USD/Month
1485 1492 1488 1484 1469
Part Time Employment 27028.00
Thousand
27153 27139 27138 27139 27139
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.90
percent
3 3 2.9 3 2.5
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10
percent
0.3 0.3 0.12 0.12 0.1
Consumer Price Index CPI 250.86
Index Points
254 255 257 258 269
Core Consumer Prices 257.31
Index Points
259 260 262 263 272
Core Inflation Rate 2.30
percent
2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2
GDP Deflator 114.90
Index Points
115 116 116 117 124
Producer Prices 116.40
Index Points
117 118 119 120 125
Producer Prices Change 3.40
percent
3 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.2
Export Prices 128.10
Index Points
129 129 129 129 119
Import Prices 127.70
Index Points
127 126 126 126 126
Food Inflation 1.40
percent
1.7 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.1
Core Pce Price Index 115.03
Index Points
116 116 117 117 120
Core Producer Prices 115.30
Index Points
116 117 117 118 124
CPI Housing Utilities 258.71
Index Points
261 261 264 266 276
CPI Transportation 214.68
Index Points
211 209 214 221 220
Pce Price Index 114.76
Index Points
115 117 116 117 121
Inflation Expectations 2.98
percent
2.89 2.89 2.89 2.89 2.89
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 2.00
percent
2.25 2.5 2.5 2.75 3
Interbank Rate 2.34
percent
2.59 2.84 2.84 3.09 3.34
Money Supply M0 3650554.00
USD Million
3614937 3606586 3604350 3603872 3603682
Money Supply M1 3658.00
USD Billion
3692 3731 3769 3806 4147
Money Supply M2 14112.30
USD Billion
14294 14463 14629 14793 16411
Foreign Exchange Reserves 122844.00
USD Million
122491 122461 122454 122454 122455
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4259935.00
USD Million
4360790 4358306 4352601 4350218 4200000
Banks Balance Sheet 16739100.00
USD Million
16818988 16833988 16837697 16838631 16838945
Loans to Private Sector 2209.53
USD Billion
2276 2337 2389 2434 2653
Private Debt to GDP 202.80
percent
198 198 195 195 191
Foreign Bond Investment 26699.00
USD Million
5411 6303 6326 6333 6333
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -43053.00
USD Million
-42100 -55000 -52000 -34000 -53000
Exports 215328.00
USD Million
206000 205000 207000 223000 206000
Imports 258381.00
USD Million
257000 260000 259000 257000 259000
Current Account -124105.00
USD Million
-131000 -132000 -129000 -124383 -145000
Current Account to GDP -2.40
percent
-2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -3
External Debt -7888082.00
USD Million
-7980634 -7977962 -7966377 -7965937 -7954592
Terms of Trade 98.39
Index Points
102 102 102 102 94.09
Capital Flows 69902.00
USD Million
-4018 25781 35123 40113 40167
Foreign Direct Investment 45701.00
USD Million
45716 46414 46098 46203 46174
Net Long Term Tic Flows 45575.00
USD Million
49236 49879 49649 49620 49625
Gold Reserves 8134.00
Tonnes
8134 8134 8134 8134 8134
Crude Oil Production 10467.00
BBL/D/1K
9806 9980 9809 10030 11500
Terrorism Index 5.43
5.2 5.2 5.6 5.6 5.8
Tourism Revenues 21547.00
USD Million
21570 21600 21578 21594 21588
Tourist Arrivals 6145476.00
6572800 6594500 6591200 6587400 6588300
Weapons Sales 12394.00
USD Million
11923 12283 12241 12200 11141
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 105.40
percent
108 108 108 108 109
Government Budget -3.50
percent of GDP
-3.9 -5 -5 -5 -6
Government Budget Value -74858.00
USD Million
-47267 -58790 -59598 -59958 -60423
Government Spending 2930.69
USD Billion
2972 3000 3004 3004 3165
Government Revenues 316278.00
USD Million
316273 299086 295111 294542 294258
Government Debt 21195070.00
USD Million
21446371 21686156 21924466 22160251 24389754
Fiscal Expenditure 391136.00
USD Million
363540 356324 354709 354501 354681
Asylum Applications 6901.00
Persons
6929 6963 6978 6982 6981
Military Expenditure 597177.90
USD Million
600321 752325 599577 599947 771394
Government Spending To Gdp 37.80
percent
37.89 38.06 38.09 38.11 37.73
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 60.20
Index Points
55 54 53 55 52
Manufacturing PMI 55.40
53.8 53 52.1 52.8 53
Non Manufacturing PMI 59.10
54 54.6 54 54.2 52
Services PMI 56.50
Index Points
53.6 53.4 53.1 54 54.8
Composite Pmi 56.20
Index Points
53.8 53.3 55.2 55.4 55.1
Industrial Production 3.80
percent
3.5 3 2.9 3 1.1
Industrial Production Mom 0.60
percent
0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2
Manufacturing Production 1.90
percent
2.8 2.1 1.8 1.81 1.9
Capacity Utilization 78.00
percent
78.6 78.3 78.5 78.6 78
Durable Goods Orders -0.60
percent
0.61 -0.3 0.35 0.34 0.4
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -1.50
percent
0.64 0.39 0.34 0.33 0.33
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation -0.30
percent
0.33 0.28 0.26 0.26 0.1
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.70
percent
0.35 0.3 0.28 0.27 0.27
Factory Orders 0.40
percent
0.3 0.1 0.29 0.29 0.2
New Orders 498174.00
USD Million
498178 497715 497591 497556 497539
Business Inventories 0.40
percent
0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.31 0.2
Changes in Inventories 13.86
USD Billion
19.5 69 17.73 16.35 75
Wholesale Inventories 0.60
percent
0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2
Bankruptcies 23106.00
Companies
23013 22896 22926 22911 22907
Corporate Profits 1920.00
USD Billion
1935 1947 1959 1971 2088
NFIB Business Optimism Index 107.20
Index Points
102 103 107 105 97
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 25.70
Index Points
21 21 25 10.17 16
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 20.00
Index Points
20 5 10 5.57 3
Ism New York Index 55.00
percent
56.8 55 56 53.9 55.9
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 22.60
Index Points
18 21 19 17 10
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 36.50
Index Points
31.4 27.9 20.1 34.15 12
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.43
0.15 0.9 0.7 0.12 0.05
Chicago Pmi 64.10
Index Points
59 59.1 61 58 56
Total Vehicle Sales 17.47
Million
17.23 19.4 17.28 17.28 18.7
Car Production 2.72
Million Units
2.82 3.97 2.88 2.88 4.04
Car Registrations 525.48
Thousand
527 493 498 508 502
Crude Oil Stocks Change 5.84
BBL/1Million
0.03 -2 0.05 0.05 0.1
Gasoline Stocks Change -3165.00
Thousand Barrels
-500 1000 21.25 21.25 500
Natural Gas Stocks Change 46.00
Billion cf
37.59 36.73 36.7 36.7 36.7
Leading Economic Index 123.07
Index Points
123 123 123 123 123
Internet Speed 18747.58
KBps
22628 23553 24392 24867 29875
IP Addresses 128949703.00
IP
129480480 129684171 129654649 129670238 129691461
Crude Oil Rigs 858.00
854 853 852 852 852
API Crude Oil Stock Change 0.63
BBL/1Million
-0.07 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.3
Steel Production 7107.00
Thousand Tonnes
6882 6870 7040 7001 7150
Competitiveness Index 5.85
Points
5.85 5.85 5.9 5.9 5.85
Competitiveness Rank 2.00
3 3 2 2 3
Corruption Index 75.00
Points
74 74 75 75 76
Corruption Rank 16.00
17 16 16 16 16
Ease of Doing Business 6.00
7 6 7 7 6
Mining Production 12.90
percent
12.5 11 9 11 4
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 97.10
Index Points
97 93 95 96 86.7
Retail Sales MoM 0.50
percent
0.41 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 6.60
percent
5.2 4 4.2 6.49 4
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.40
percent
0.42 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.4
Consumer Spending 12061.04
USD Billion
12214 12360 12363 12363 13037
Disposable Personal Income 14929.76
USD Billion
15062 15170 15278 15385 16460
Personal Spending 0.20
percent
0.33 0.7 0.33 0.33 0.5
Personal Income 0.40
percent
0.32 0.4 0.31 0.31 0.31
Personal Savings 3.20
percent
3.5 3.6 3.7 3.14 4.2
Consumer Credit 24.60
USD Billion
15.52 15.05 15.05 15.04 15.04
Private Sector Credit 9347.40
USD Billion
9406 9451 9495 9536 9843
Bank Lending Rate 4.89
percent
5.14 5.39 5.39 5.64 5.89
Economic Optimism Index 56.40
52.9 52.3 52 51.3 50
Redbook Index 3.30
percent
3.8 3.81 3.81 3.81 3.81
Chain Store Sales 4410.00
USD Million
4617 4595 4602 4600 4601
Gasoline Prices 0.75
USD/Liter
0.71 0.67 0.63 0.6 0.34
Households Debt To Gdp 78.70
percent of GDP
78.68 81.2 78.76 78.79 82.6
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Building Permits 1273.00
Thousand
1280 1230 1320 1249 1315
Housing Starts 1173.00
Thousand units
1270 1330 1300 1239 1280
New Home Sales 689.00
Thousand
580 600 615 679 590
Pending Home Sales -2.20
percent
-0.4 0.1 1.1 1.3 1.2
Existing Home Sales 5430.00
Thousand
5500 5600 5500 5444 5000
Construction Spending 0.40
percent
0.3 1 0.54 0.54 0.4
Housing Index 0.10
percent
0.5 0.4 0.3 0.42 0.5
Nahb Housing Market Index 68.00
70 68 66 68.28 53
Mortgage Rate 4.77
percent
4.76 4.76 4.76 4.76 6.5
Mortgage Applications -2.50
percent
0.41 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Case Shiller Home Price Index 210.17
Index Points
212 213 215 2016 230
Home Ownership Rate 64.20
percent
64.36 64.51 64.52 64.53 64.86
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 21.00
percent
21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate 37.00
percent
37 37 37 37 35
Sales Tax Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate 12.40
percent
12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4
Social Security Rate For Companies 6.20
percent
6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.20
percent
7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature -1.42
celsius
19.24 3.01 -1.15 18.73 8.8
Precipitation 75.78
mm
63.34 48.58 46.48 56.22 55.37