Markets Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Currency 94.38 96.06 96.48 96.91 97.33 98.17
Stock Market (points) 26688.00 26847 26322 25804 25300 24292
Government Bond 10Y (%) 0.67 0.69 0.71 0.73 0.75 0.8

Overview Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) -31.70 20 3 3.8 2.5 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -9.10 -5 1 2.3 3.4 3.8
Unemployment Rate (%) 8.40 8.4 7.6 6.8 6.5 6.5
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 1371.00 1200 1000 100 280 107
Inflation Rate (%) 1.30 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.5
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.40 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.6
Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -63556.00 -59000 -55000 -47000 -51000 -53000
Current Account (USD Million) -170541.00 -165000 -142000 -115000 -117000 -117000
Current Account to GDP (%) -2.30 -3 -3 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6
Government Debt to GDP (%) 106.90 120 120 125 125 125
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.60 -12.9 -12.9 -10.2 -10.2 -10.2
Business Confidence (points) 56.00 52 51 52 53 53.4
Services PMI (points) 54.60 54.6 50.8 50.1 50 50.5
Manufacturing PMI (points) 53.50 53.5 52.1 49 50 50
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 56.90 55 52 50 51 50
Consumer Confidence (points) 78.90 78.9 76 77 80 88
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.60 0.5 0.9 1.7 0.3 2.4
Building Permits (Thousand) 1470.00 1450 1380 1300 1310 1200
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 35 35 35

GDP Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) -31.70 20 3 3.8 2.5 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -9.10 -5 1 2.3 3.4 3.8
GDP (USD Billion) 21427.70 19000 19000 21000 21000 21000
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion) 17282.20 18185 19446 19448 17870 20185
Gross National Product (USD Billion) 17403.55 18427 19705 19674 17995 20453
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion) 3099.61 3210 3421 3453 3205 3551
GDP per capita (USD) 55809.00 53240 53240 54200 54200 54200
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 62682.80 59770 59770 60500 60500 60500
GDP From Agriculture (USD Billion) 253.90 231 247 260 263 257
GDP From Construction (USD Billion) 655.10 619 660 670 677 685
GDP From Manufacturing (USD Billion) 2158.10 2081 2207 2208 2231 2291
GDP From Mining (USD Billion) 540.70 521 552 553 559 573
GDP From Public Administration (USD Billion) 2211.40 2101 2249 2262 2287 2335
GDP From Services (USD Billion) 13083.80 12541 13419 13385 13529 13929
GDP From Transport (USD Billion) 548.50 531 567 561 567 588
GDP From Utilities (USD Billion) 301.40 268 301 308 312 312

Labour Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Unemployment Rate (%) 8.40 8.4 7.6 6.8 6.5 6.5
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 1371.00 1200 1000 100 280 107
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand) 1027.00 900 870 90 270 105
Government Payrolls (Thousand) 344.00 100 30 10 10 2
Manufacturing Payrolls (Thousand) 29.00 30 40 2 20 2
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 860.00 790 650 500 400 300
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand) 12628.00 130000 10000 9000 8000 3900
ADP Employment Change (Thousand) 428.00 300 150 100 200 150
Employed Persons (Thousand) 147288.00 148900 150000 152000 155000 158000
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 13550.00 12500 11000 9000 8500 6890
Average Hourly Earnings (%) 0.40 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 34.60 34.6 34.5 34.4 34.5 34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 61.70 61.5 61.6 61.9 61.9 62.7
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 0.94 0.94 1.1 2 1.8 1.6
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 14.70 14.7 14.7 13.9 13.6 13.6
Productivity (points) 110.95 111 109 110 111 111
Labour Costs (points) 116.86 109 110 115 118 116
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 6949.00 6100 5800 5600 6100 6200
Job Offers (Thousand) 6618.00 6300 6100 6800 7200 6600
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 115762.00 120000 71000 71000 50000 55000
Wages (USD/Hour) 24.81 23.27 23.36 24.22 24.99 24.72
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 22.75 21.87 22.11 22.68 22.81 23.39
Wage Growth (%) -1.14 -1.8 -2 0.5 1 5.8
Minimum Wages (USD/Hour) 7.25 7.25 7.25 9 9 9
Employment Cost Index (%) 0.50 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6
Population (Million) 329.13 330 331 331 331 333
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Employment Rate (%) 56.50 56 58.8 58.8 60.9 60.8
Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Thousand) 912.00 900 750 600 500 350
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 122369.00 120500 125302 128302 129000 133627
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 24973.00 26500 27500 27500 27500 26500

Prices Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Inflation Rate (%) 1.30 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.5
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.40 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.6
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 259.68 260 263 262 260 267
Core Consumer Prices (points) 268.75 269 270 271 270 274
Core Inflation Rate (%) 1.70 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5
GDP Deflator (points) 112.76 114 115 115 114 116
Producer Prices (points) 118.40 119 121 120 119 123
Producer Prices Change (%) -0.20 0.3 1.5 1.9 1.5 1.8
Export Prices (points) 122.00 123 124 125 126 128
Import Prices (points) 123.20 125 126 126 126 128
Food Inflation (%) 4.10 4.2 4 3.5 2.7 2.3
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 272.87 271 273 274 275 277
CPI Transportation (points) 202.39 212 212 207 198 215
Core Pce Price Index (points) 113.46 114 114 115 115 116
Core Producer Prices (points) 118.90 119 121 121 121 121
Inflation Expectations (%) 3.00 3 3.2 3.1 3 2.5
Pce Price Index (points) 111.15 112 112 113 113 114

Money Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Interbank Rate (%) 0.22 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 139971.00 139200 141900 143200 139700 130150
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 6961634.00 6827776 6917676 7161339 7255597 8586458
Banks Balance Sheet (USD Million) 20066411.00 22377366 24224722 26082618 28672113 32856716
Private Debt to GDP (%) 220.20 230 230 228 228 228
Repo Rate 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13

Trade Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -63556.00 -59000 -55000 -47000 -51000 -53000
Current Account (USD Million) -170541.00 -165000 -142000 -115000 -117000 -117000
Current Account to GDP (%) -2.30 -3 -3 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6
Imports (USD Million) 231665.00 239000 245000 242000 251000 259000
Exports (USD Million) 168109.00 180000 190000 195000 200000 206000
Terms of Trade (points) 103.10 98.72 98.62 99.41 100 100
Capital Flows (USD Million) -88700.00 -85000 -22000 62000 40200 35000
Foreign Direct Investment (USD Million) 26661.00 32500 46000 50000 50000 53000
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 10436.00 10500 10500 11000 11000 11000
Goods Trade Balance (USD Million) -79320.00 -80000 -81000 -72000 -73000 -73000
Tourism Revenues (USD Million) 4557.00 5010 6220 6400 7840 9460
Tourist Arrivals 272506.00 1000000 1200000 1500000 1800000 2000100

Government Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Government Debt to GDP (%) 106.90 120 120 125 125 125
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.60 -12.9 -12.9 -10.2 -10.2 -10.2
Government Budget Value (USD Million) -200000.00 -149000 -145000 -115000 5000 -10000
Government Spending (USD Billion) 3370.90 3152 3371 3425 3486 3499
Government Revenues (USD Million) 223221.00 350000 300000 280000 360000 340000
Fiscal Expenditure (USD Million) 423316.00 499000 445000 395000 355000 350000
Government Spending To GDP (%) 37.80 42 42 40.3 40.3 40.3
Military Expenditure (USD Million) 633565.00 771394 771394 771394 771394 771394

Taxes Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate (%) 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate (%) 15.30 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65

Business Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Business Confidence (points) 56.00 52 51 52 53 53.4
Services PMI (points) 54.60 54.6 50.8 50.1 50 50.5
Manufacturing PMI (points) 53.50 53.5 52.1 49 50 50
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 56.90 55 52 50 51 50
Composite Pmi (points) 54.40 54.4 51 48 50 50.4
Industrial Production (%) -7.70 -6.6 -3.5 -0.6 3.4 0.9
Industrial Production Mom (%) 0.40 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3
Manufacturing Production (%) -6.90 -5 -1.5 2.9 3.5 0.7
Capacity Utilization (%) 71.42 71.7 72.6 74.6 76.3 78.4
Durable Goods Orders (%) 11.20 4.8 3.4 1.4 3 0.3
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%) 9.90 5.8 3.3 1.3 0.8 0.5
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%) 2.40 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.2
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%) 2.10 -4.3 1 1 1.2 0.3
Factory Orders (%) 6.40 -5.2 0.8 0.8 1.5 0.5
Business Inventories (%) 0.10 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2
Changes in Inventories (USD Billion) -286.41 -64 35 25 20 33
Wholesale Inventories (%) -0.30 -0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2
Bankruptcies (Companies) 22482.00 45500 35000 35000 24000 30000
Corporate Profits (USD Billion) 1569.20 1620 1750 1750 1900 1870
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points) 100.20 99 95 100 104 99
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points) 17.00 5 10 8 7 4
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 15.00 13 10 10 12 5
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 21.00 10 -3 2 4 2.5
Ism New York Index (%) 42.90 42 45 48 52 52
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 8.00 5 2 2 8 3
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.79 0.2 0.1 0 0.5 -0.6
Chicago Pmi (points) 51.20 50.8 50.2 51 49 52
Total Vehicle Sales (Million) 15.19 15 16.3 16.5 16.5 17.3
Car Production (Million Units) 2.49 2.5 2.6 2.8 3 2.5
Car Registrations (Thousand) 310.92 280 300 340 350 300
Crude Oil Stocks Change (BBL/1Million) -1.64 3 2.6 2.6 10 2.6
Gasoline Stocks Change (Thousand Barrels) -4025.00 -500 -150 210 430 2000
Natural Gas Stocks Change (Billion cf) 89.00 100 -200 120 80 20
Leading Economic Index (points) 122.77 123 128 130 129 127
Crude Oil Rigs 179.00 190 180 195 201 250
API Crude Oil Stock Change (BBL/1Million) 0.69 3.5 -2 2 3.5 2
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 23.00 7 9 10 12 4
Mining Production (%) -17.90 -12 -8 -2.1 3.8 2.3
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 5241.00 5280 6150 6440 6750 7150

Consumer Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Consumer Confidence (points) 78.90 78.9 76 77 80 88
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.60 0.5 0.9 1.7 0.3 2.4
Retail Sales YoY (%) 2.60 2.2 3 3 2.1 1.8
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) 0.70 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4
Consumer Spending (USD Billion) 11819.58 12636 13487 13420 12221 14000
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion) 17881.52 15629 16733 16931 18448 17369
Personal Spending (%) 1.90 -1.7 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7
Personal Income (%) 0.40 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.3
Personal Savings (%) 17.80 16 13 12 10 9.5
Consumer Credit (USD Billion) 12.25 10.38 21.72 -15.84 11.78 22.54
Private Sector Credit (USD Billion) 10526.26 11000 10900 10700 10600 9900
Bank Lending Rate (%) 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
Economic Optimism Index 45.00 47 49 49 50 49
Redbook Index (%) 1.50 -1.5 -0.7 1.1 1.7 3
Chain Store Sales (USD Million) 1849.00 2250 3000 3500 4000 6000
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 75.20 78 79 79 79 79
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.58 0.47 0.44 0.42 0.4 0.38

Housing Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Building Permits (Thousand) 1470.00 1450 1380 1300 1310 1200
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 1416.00 1300 1280 1200 1310 1170
New Home Sales (Thousand units) 901.00 890 650 620 640 560
Pending Home Sales (%) 15.50 7 2.2 2.5 3.8 1.7
Existing Home Sales (Thousand) 6000.00 5900 5500 5800 6000 5200
Construction Spending (%) 0.10 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.2 0.4
Housing Index (%) 1.00 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.3
Nahb Housing Market Index 83.00 77 79 78 72 75
Mortgage Rate (%) 3.10 3.07 4.45 3.07 3.07 4.7
Mortgage Applications (%) 6.80 -3.5 1.7 0.9 -0.6 0.9
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points) 225.13 225 228 222 226 225
Home Ownership Rate (%) 67.90 64.5 64.5 64.5 64.5 64.5


This page has economic forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy.