Markets Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022
Currency 89.95 96.06 96.48 96.91 97.33 98.17
Stock Market (points) 31587.90 30838 30234 29640 29061 27903
Government Bond 10Y (%) 1.37 1.44 1.48 1.53 1.58 1.67

Overview Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022
GDP Growth Rate (%) 4.00 1.5 2.5 2.9 1.7 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -2.50 -0.6 3.4 3.7 3.8 2
Unemployment Rate (%) 6.30 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 4.4
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 49.00 200 280 230 250 280
Inflation Rate (%) 1.40 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.30 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7
Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -66613.00 -47000 -51000 -50000 -63000 -53000
Current Account (USD Million) -178513.00 -142000 -117000 -99000 -117000 -117000
Current Account to GDP (%) -2.30 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6
Government Debt to GDP (%) 107.60 125 125 125 125 122
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.60 -10.2 -10.2 -10.2 -10.2 -8.7
Business Confidence (points) 58.70 55 53 51 53.4 53.4
Services PMI (points) 58.90 56.1 54 52 50.5 50.8
Manufacturing PMI (points) 58.50 57 54 52 51 51
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 58.70 50 51 51 50 52
Consumer Confidence (points) 76.20 95 90 82 88 95
Retail Sales MoM (%) 5.30 1.7 0.3 0.4 2.4 2.4
Building Permits (Thousand) 1881.00 1300 1310 1470 1200 1300
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 35 35 35 35 35

GDP Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022
GDP Growth Rate (%) 4.00 1.5 2.5 2.9 1.7 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -2.50 -0.6 3.4 3.7 3.8 2
GDP (USD Billion) 21433.20 21500 21500 21500 21500 22790
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion) 18780.30 18897 17891 19285 19494 19884
Gross National Product (USD Billion) 18755.02 19117 18036 19449 19468 19857
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion) 3457.80 3355 3202 3437 3589 3661
GDP per capita (USD) 55809.00 54200 54200 54200 54200 55000
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 62682.80 60500 60500 60500 60500 61100
GDP From Agriculture (USD Billion) 262.50 263 244 272 272 278
GDP From Construction (USD Billion) 654.30 661 637 679 679 693
GDP From Manufacturing (USD Billion) 2213.20 2187 2030 2295 2297 2343
GDP From Mining (USD Billion) 421.80 497 453 437 438 447
GDP From Public Administration (USD Billion) 2185.70 2220 2206 2267 2269 2314
GDP From Services (USD Billion) 12772.10 13019 12250 13245 13257 13523
GDP From Transport (USD Billion) 497.80 566 454 516 517 527
GDP From Utilities (USD Billion) 296.30 301 306 307 308 314

Labour Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022
Unemployment Rate (%) 6.30 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 4.4
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 49.00 200 280 230 250 280
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand) 6.00 90 270 120 105 110
Government Payrolls (Thousand) 43.00 10 10 50 2 60
Manufacturing Payrolls (Thousand) -10.00 2 20 10 2 2
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 861.00 600 500 350 300 270
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand) 4494.00 5000 4500 4500 3900 2700
ADP Employment Change (Thousand) 174.00 250 350 270 250 250
Employed Persons (Thousand) 150031.00 152000 155000 157000 158000 159000
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 10130.00 9000 8500 7000 6890 6200
Average Hourly Earnings (%) 0.20 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 35.00 34.8 34.5 34.4 34.4 34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 61.40 61.9 61.9 61.9 62.7 62.7
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 2.51 2 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.2
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 11.20 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.4 9.6
Productivity (points) 111.09 110 111 110 111 111
Labour Costs (points) 117.56 118 122 120 122 126
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 6178.00 5600 6100 6500 6200 6600
Job Offers (Thousand) 6646.00 6800 7200 6500 6600 5900
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 79552.00 71000 50000 45000 55000 55000
Wages (USD/Hour) 25.18 24.92 25.66 25.78 26.01 26.94
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 23.23 23.3 23.36 23.96 24.08 24.95
Wage Growth (%) 2.31 3.2 3.6 4 3.4 3.6
Minimum Wages (USD/Hour) 7.25 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 11
Employment Cost Index (%) 0.70 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6
Population (Million) 329.48 331 331 331 333 335
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Employment Rate (%) 57.50 58.8 60.9 60.9 60.8 61
Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Thousand) 833.25 600 500 450 350 300
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 124990.00 128302 129000 131000 133627 133627
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 24627.00 27500 27500 27500 26500 26500

Prices Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022
Inflation Rate (%) 1.40 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.30 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 262.23 262 261 264 266 270
Core Consumer Prices (points) 270.03 271 270 274 276 279
Core Inflation Rate (%) 1.40 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.7
GDP Deflator (points) 114.37 115 115 116 116 118
Producer Prices (points) 121.30 120 119 120 125 124
Producer Prices Change (%) 1.70 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.8 1.8
Export Prices (points) 128.70 125 126 127 128 129
Import Prices (points) 126.30 126 126 127 128 128
Food Inflation (%) 3.80 3.5 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.3
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 274.34 274 276 277 278 283
CPI Transportation (points) 205.63 207 199 206 207 210
Core Pce Price Index (points) 114.39 115 115 116 116 119
Core Producer Prices (points) 121.00 121 121 121 121 121
Inflation Expectations (%) 3.05 3.1 3 2.9 2.5 2.5
Pce Price Index (points) 112.17 113 113 114 114 116

Money Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022
Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Interbank Rate (%) 0.18 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 144890.00 143200 139700 138000 130150 130150
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 7512414.00 7161339 7185597 7202000 7206458 7009422
Banks Balance Sheet (USD Billion) 20749.70 20382618 20272113 20101100 20056716 20556716
Private Debt to GDP (%) 220.20 228 228 228 228 224
Repo Rate 0.06 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13

Trade Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -66613.00 -47000 -51000 -50000 -63000 -53000
Current Account (USD Million) -178513.00 -142000 -117000 -99000 -117000 -117000
Current Account to GDP (%) -2.30 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6
Imports (USD Million) 256572.00 242000 251000 253000 259000 259000
Exports (USD Million) 189959.00 195000 200000 203000 206000 206000
External Debt (USD Million) 21314655.00 22220502 22386165 22406171 22500000 22934407
Terms of Trade (points) 105.06 99.41 100 100 100 101
Capital Flows (USD Million) -600.00 62000 40200 47000 35000 23000
Foreign Direct Investment (USD Million) 40052.00 50000 50000 52000 53000 54000
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 11124.00 11000 11000 11200 11000 12000
Goods Trade Balance (USD Million) -82466.00 -72000 -73000 -74000 -73000 -74500
Tourism Revenues (USD Million) 5096.00 6400 7840 8920 9460 21200
Tourist Arrivals 906682.00 1500000 1800000 2000000 2000100 4760100

Government Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022
Government Debt to GDP (%) 107.60 125 125 125 125 122
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.60 -10.2 -10.2 -10.2 -10.2 -8.7
Government Budget Value (USD Million) -163000.00 -62500 -145000 -115000 -62490 -62490
Government Spending (USD Billion) 3316.76 3328 3483 3450 3443 3512
Government Revenues (USD Million) 384651.00 280000 360000 350000 340000 340000
Fiscal Expenditure (USD Million) 547483.00 395000 355000 355000 350000 350000
Government Spending To GDP (%) 44.00 40.3 40.3 40.3 40.3 38.4
Military Expenditure (USD Million) 633565.00 771394 771394 771394 771394 771394

Taxes Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate (%) 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate (%) 15.30 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65

Business Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022
Business Confidence (points) 58.70 55 53 51 53.4 53.4
Services PMI (points) 58.90 56.1 54 52 50.5 50.8
Manufacturing PMI (points) 58.50 57 54 52 51 51
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 58.70 50 51 51 50 52
Composite PMI (points) 58.80 52 50 51 50.4 50.8
Industrial Production (%) -1.80 -0.6 3.4 4.2 0.9 0.9
Industrial Production Mom (%) 0.90 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3
Manufacturing Production (%) -1.00 2.9 3.5 1.9 0.7 0.7
Capacity Utilization (%) 75.60 74.6 76.3 77 78.4 78.4
Durable Goods Orders (%) 0.20 0.4 3 3.7 0.3 0.3
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%) 0.50 0.3 0.8 1.7 0.5 0.5
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.70 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.2
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%) 1.40 1 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.3
Factory Orders (%) 1.10 0.8 1.5 1.7 0.5 0.5
Business Inventories (%) 0.60 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2
Changes in Inventories (USD Billion) 44.61 25 20 47 33 45
Wholesale Inventories (%) 0.30 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.2
Bankruptcies (Companies) 21655.00 35000 24000 22000 30000 30000
Corporate Profits (USD Billion) 2018.50 1750 1900 1950 1870 1870
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points) 95.00 100 104 100 99 102
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points) 12.10 8 7 12 4 4
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 23.10 22 12 15 5 5
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 14.00 2 4 3 2.5 2.5
Ism New York Index (%) 51.20 48 52 53 52 52
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 17.20 2 8 6 3 3
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.66 0 0.5 0.3 -0.6 -0.2
Chicago PMI (points) 63.80 55 50 51 52 54
Total Vehicle Sales (Million) 16.60 16.5 16.5 17.1 17.1 17.3
Car Production (Million Units) 2.04 2.8 3 2.7 2.5 2.5
Car Registrations (Thousand) 324.56 240 270 360 400 400
Crude Oil Stocks Change (BBL/1Million) -7.26 2.6 10 -5 -5 2.6
Gasoline Stocks Change (Thousand Barrels) 672.00 210 430 -15 -15 2000
Natural Gas Stocks Change (Billion cf) -237.00 120 80 -40 20 20
Leading Economic Index (points) 124.44 130 129 131 127 128
Crude Oil Rigs 306.00 275 280 282 280 290
API Crude Oil Stock Change (BBL/1Million) -5.80 -2 3.5 -5 -5 2
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 22.00 10 12 8 4 5
Mining Production (%) -11.50 -2.1 3.8 4 2.3 2.3
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 6434.00 6440 6750 6810 6810 7350

Consumer Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022
Consumer Confidence (points) 76.20 95 90 82 88 95
Retail Sales MoM (%) 5.30 1.7 0.3 0.4 2.4 2.4
Retail Sales YoY (%) 7.40 4.8 2.1 2.4 1.8 1.8
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) 5.90 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4
Consumer Spending (USD Billion) 13004.74 13040 12263 13403 13499 13769
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion) 17338.60 16451 18508 18303 17997 18357
Personal Spending (%) -0.20 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 1
Personal Income (%) 0.60 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3
Personal Savings (%) 13.70 12 10 8 9.5 9.5
Consumer Credit (USD Billion) 9.73 -13.85 19.17 15.59 10.1 10.3
Private Sector Credit (USD Billion) 10347.68 10700 10600 107000 9900 9900
Bank Lending Rate (%) 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.75 3.75
Economic Optimism Index 51.90 53 50 53 53 49
Redbook Index (%) 4.00 1.1 1.7 2 3 2.1
Chain Store Sales (USD Million) 3827.00 2300 2600 2500 6000 6000
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 76.20 79 79 79 79 79
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.62 0.59 0.56 0.53 0.51 0.48

Housing Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022
Building Permits (Thousand) 1881.00 1300 1310 1470 1200 1300
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 1580.00 1200 1310 1450 1170 1270
New Home Sales (Thousand units) 842.00 620 640 620 560 590
Pending Home Sales (%) 21.40 2.5 3.8 4 1.7 1.7
Existing Home Sales (Thousand) 6690.00 5800 6000 5900 5200 4700
Construction Spending (%) 1.00 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.4
Housing Index (%) 1.00 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3
Nahb Housing Market Index 84.00 78 72 70 75 63
Mortgage Rate (%) 2.98 3.07 3.17 3.25 3.3 3.5
Mortgage Applications (%) -5.10 1.7 -0.6 2.6 2.6 0.6
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points) 238.48 222 226 227 225 224
Home Ownership Rate (%) 65.80 64.5 64.5 64.5 64.5 64.5


This page has economic forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy.