Markets Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Currency 99.79 96.06 96.48 96.91 97.33 98.17
Stock Market (points) 24720.00 24098 23626 23162 22709 21805
Government Bond 10Y (%) 0.66 0.68 0.7 0.72 0.74 0.79

Overview Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) -4.80 -17 -3.6 -3 1 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 0.30 -16.5 -7.3 -2.8 2.3 2.2
Unemployment Rate (%) 14.70 15 18 20 19 15
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) -20500.00 -600 -400 -170 -100 -90
Inflation Rate (%) 0.30 0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 1
Inflation Rate Mom (%) -0.80 -2 -1.3 -0.5 0.1 0.2
Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0 0 0 0 0.25
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -44415.00 -50000 -49000 -62000 -10000 -63000
Current Account (USD Million) -109800.00 -125000 -120000 -125000 -125000 -137000
Current Account to GDP (%) -2.30 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2 -2
Government Debt to GDP (%) 106.90 120 120 120 125 125
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.60 -12.9 -12.9 -12.9 -10.2 -10.2
Business Confidence (points) 41.50 30 48 51 52 53.4
Manufacturing PMI (points) 39.80 41.7 44 47 50 50
Services PMI (points) 36.90 37.9 43 46 48 50.5
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 41.80 35 47 52 53 50
Consumer Confidence (points) 73.70 50 57 65 76 88
Retail Sales MoM (%) -16.40 -0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.4
Building Permits (Thousand) 1074.00 1100 1150 1115 1115 1200
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 37 35 35

GDP Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) -4.80 -17 -3.6 -3 1 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 0.30 -16.5 -7.3 -2.8 2.3 2.2
GDP (USD Billion) 21200.00 20140 20140 20140 21990 21990
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion) 18987.88 15883 17725 18684 19664 19095
Gross National Product (USD Billion) 19515.46 16136 17993 18969 19964 19386
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion) 3304.35 2787 3087 3233 3402 3304
GDP per capita (USD) 54579.00 52725 52725 52725 53200 53200
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 55719.12 53770 52770 53770 54500 54500
GDP From Agriculture (USD Billion) 244.90 199 225 236 249 241
GDP From Construction (USD Billion) 653.80 547 604 633 666 647
GDP From Manufacturing (USD Billion) 2185.10 1810 2031 2129 2241 2176
GDP From Mining (USD Billion) 546.50 450 509 533 561 545
GDP From Public Administration (USD Billion) 2226.80 1847 2051 2150 2263 2197
GDP From Services (USD Billion) 13286.30 10965 12237 12831 13505 13114
GDP From Transport (USD Billion) 561.20 468 518 543 572 555
GDP From Utilities (USD Billion) 297.80 246 262 275 289 281

Labour Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Unemployment Rate (%) 14.70 15 18 20 19 15
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) -20500.00 -600 -400 -170 -100 -90
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand) -19520.00 -660 -320 161 220 245
Government Payrolls (Thousand) -980.00 -40 -80 9 9 9
Manufacturing Payrolls (Thousand) -1330.00 -200 -100 -2 -2 2
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 2438.00 220 220 238 238 267
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand) 25073.00 1680 1700 1700 1700 1700
ADP Employment Change (Thousand) -20236.00 -600 -400 150 150 150
Employed Persons (Thousand) 133403.00 157500 156900 154000 154000 153000
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 23078.00 5900 5900 6280 6280 6390
Average Hourly Earnings (%) 4.70 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 34.20 33.6 33.8 34.4 34.4 34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 60.20 59.8 61.5 61.6 61.9 62.7
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 0.60 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -4.9 -6.9
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 27.40 22.9 22.9 22.9 21.9 19.9
Productivity (points) 107.60 110 110 111 111 112
Labour Costs (points) 112.96 104 107 120 112 126
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 6060.00 3400 4100 4800 4600 5200
Job Offers (Thousand) 6191.00 2000 1900 2100 3800 3600
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 671129.00 180000 50000 51000 51000 55000
Wages (USD/Hour) 25.12 21.92 22.8 23.36 24.2 24.72
Wage Growth (%) -0.78 -6.6 -3.8 -2 0.5 5.8
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 22.80 20.63 21.42 22.11 22.67 23.39
Minimum Wages (USD/Hour) 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 9 9
Employment Cost Index (%) 0.80 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
Population (Million) 329.13 330 330 331 331 333
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Employment Rate (%) 51.30 61 61 60.8 60.8 60.4
Living Wage Family (USD/Month) 2380.00 2223 2290 2332 2392 2468
Living Wage Individual (USD/Month) 1660.00 1550 1597 1627 1668 1721
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 114322.00 131400 131500 132302 132302 133627
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 19106.00 25800 26500 27500 27500 26500
Wages Low Skilled (USD/Month) 1960.00 1997 1999 2003 2009 2067
Wages High Skilled (USD/Month) 4520.00 4222 4348 4430 4543 4687

Prices Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Inflation Rate (%) 0.30 0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 1
Inflation Rate Mom (%) -0.80 -2 -1.3 -0.5 0.1 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 255.90 257 256 258 259 261
Core Consumer Prices (points) 265.60 268 269 271 272 276
Core Inflation Rate (%) 1.40 1.8 1.7 2 2 2
GDP Deflator (points) 113.43 113 112 113 114 114
Producer Prices (points) 117.00 116 119 122 120 125
Producer Prices Change (%) -1.20 -2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.8
Export Prices (points) 118.20 125 123 119 119 119
Import Prices (points) 118.20 125 125 126 126 126
Food Inflation (%) 3.50 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9
Core Pce Price Index (points) 112.84 119 119 120 120 120
Core Producer Prices (points) 118.20 119 119 121 121 121
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 270.18 268 267 268 271 271
CPI Transportation (points) 193.73 214 209 208 205 210
Inflation Expectations (%) 2.62 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4
Pce Price Index (points) 110.50 114 114 121 121 121

Money Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0 0 0 0 0.25
Interbank Rate (%) 0.37 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 127910.00 129200 129200 129200 129200 123602
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 6196020.00 3812838 3850000 3850000 3850000 3800000
Banks Balance Sheet (USD Million) 19729125.00 17756618 17756618 16856715 16856715 16856716
Private Debt to GDP (%) 196.70 189 189 189 189 185

Trade Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -44415.00 -50000 -49000 -62000 -10000 -63000
Current Account (USD Million) -109800.00 -125000 -120000 -125000 -125000 -137000
Current Account to GDP (%) -2.30 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2 -2
Imports (USD Million) 232160.00 200000 179000 158000 170000 219000
Exports (USD Million) 187745.00 150000 130000 120000 160000 206000
Terms of Trade (points) 104.87 100 98.72 94.64 94.64 94.64
Capital Flows (USD Million) 349900.00 20000 -25000 22000 22000 25000
Foreign Direct Investment (USD Million) 51575.00 49000 49500 52152 52152 53000
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 12833.00 10000 10500 10500 11000 11000
Tourist Arrivals 5796272.00 4900000 5100000 5800000 6200000 6760100

Government Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Government Debt to GDP (%) 106.90 120 120 120 125 125
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.60 -12.9 -12.9 -12.9 -10.2 -10.2
Government Budget Value (USD Million) -737851.00 -7000 91000 -62500 -20000 -62490
Government Spending (USD Billion) 3336.99 2753 3069 3238 3408 3309
Government Revenues (USD Million) 242000.00 300000 300000 325000 325000 340000
Fiscal Expenditure (USD Million) 979714.00 399000 399000 345000 345000 350000
Military Expenditure (USD Million) 633565.00 771394 771394 771394 771394 771394
Government Spending To GDP (%) 37.80 38 38 38 38.3 38.3

Taxes Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 37 35 35
Sales Tax Rate (%) 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate (%) 15.30 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65

Business Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Business Confidence (points) 41.50 30 48 51 52 53.4
Manufacturing PMI (points) 39.80 41.7 44 47 50 50
Services PMI (points) 36.90 37.9 43 46 48 50.5
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 41.80 35 47 52 53 50
Composite Pmi (points) 36.40 39 43.4 46 48 50.4
Industrial Production (%) -15.00 -3.2 1.6 1.1 1.1 0.9
Industrial Production Mom (%) -11.20 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Manufacturing Production (%) -18.00 -3.6 1 0.9 0.9 0.7
Capacity Utilization (%) 64.89 65.9 77.8 78.6 78.6 78.4
Durable Goods Orders (%) -14.40 0.5 0.2 1.4 1.4 0.3
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%) -15.80 1.3 0.8 1.3 1.3 0.5
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%) -0.20 0.2 0.2 1.1 1.1 1.1
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%) -3.70 -5.2 -4.3 1 1 0.3
Factory Orders (%) -10.30 -6.5 -5.2 0.8 0.8 0.3
Business Inventories (%) -0.20 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Changes in Inventories (USD Billion) -16.32 75 75 75 75 75
Wholesale Inventories (%) -0.80 0.5 -0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2
Bankruptcies (Companies) 23114.00 22800 23500 25000 25000 30000
Corporate Profits (USD Billion) 1908.20 1790 1820 1850 1850 1870
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points) 90.90 85 91 93 95 99
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points) -48.50 -25 -7 10 10 4
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points) -43.10 -41 -37 9 9 5
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points) -53.00 -27 1 -3 -3 -3
Ism New York Index (%) 4.30 36 42 45 48 52
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -4.19 -3 -1.6 -1 0 -0.6
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) -73.70 -46 5 2 2 5
Chicago Pmi (points) 35.40 45 48 50.2 51 52
Total Vehicle Sales (Million) 11.40 17 17 17.3 17.3 17.3
Car Production (Million Units) 0.01 2.58 2.75 2.9 2.9 2.8
Car Registrations (Thousand) 254.05 410 420 440 440 445
Crude Oil Stocks Change (BBL/1Million) -4.98 3 3 2.6 2.6 2.6
Gasoline Stocks Change (Thousand Barrels) 2830.00 600 -500 2000 2000 2000
Natural Gas Stocks Change (Billion cf) 81.00 90 100 -200 -200 -200
Leading Economic Index (points) 129.73 127 126 126 126 125
Crude Oil Rigs 237.00 660 680 650 650 750
API Crude Oil Stock Change (BBL/1Million) -4.84 2 3.5 2 2 2
Mining Production (%) -7.50 -4.5 2 3.2 3.2 3

Consumer Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Consumer Confidence (points) 73.70 50 57 65 76 88
Retail Sales MoM (%) -16.40 -0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.4
Retail Sales YoY (%) -21.60 -3 2.2 2 2 1.8
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) -17.20 -0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Consumer Spending (USD Billion) 13153.00 11064 12378 13038 13722 13325
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion) 16508.19 13697 15354 16200 17241 16556
Personal Spending (%) -7.50 -2 -1.7 -1 0.5 0.7
Personal Income (%) -2.00 -2.3 -1.9 -0.8 -0.5 0.3
Personal Savings (%) 13.10 15 16 13 12 9.5
Consumer Credit (USD Billion) -12.04 9.82 9.97 20.48 -12.32 20.93
Private Sector Credit (USD Billion) 10816.70 10000 10000 10200 10200 9900
Bank Lending Rate (%) 3.25 3.81 3.81 3.81 3.81 3.81
Economic Optimism Index 49.70 46.5 47 49 49 49
Redbook Index (%) -9.50 4.5 4 4 4 4
Chain Store Sales (USD Million) 1177.00 3150 3250 6500 6500 6000
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.49 0.61 0.58 0.55 0.52 0.5
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 75.40 78 78 79 79 79

Housing Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Building Permits (Thousand) 1074.00 1100 1150 1115 1115 1200
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 891.00 1240 1150 1180 1180 1070
New Home Sales (Thousand units) 627.00 650 600 550 550 460
Pending Home Sales (%) -16.30 1.5 -0.5 1.2 1.2 1.7
Existing Home Sales (Thousand) 4330.00 2100 2200 2500 2700 3200
Construction Spending (%) 0.90 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Housing Index (%) 0.70 0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Nahb Housing Market Index 37.00 35 9 12 68 65
Mortgage Rate (%) 3.41 3.49 3.49 4.45 3.49 4.7
Mortgage Applications (%) -2.60 1.5 -3.5 0.9 0.9 0.9
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points) 219.75 221 220 218 218 222
Home Ownership Rate (%) 65.30 64.5 64.5 64.5 64.5 64.5


This page has economic forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy.