Markets Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Currency 96.43 96.06 96.48 96.91 97.33 97.33
Stock Market (points) 24706.35 22667 22327 21993 21662 21016
Government Bond 10Y (%) 2.79 2.69 2.74 2.78 2.82 2.91
Overview Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
GDP Growth Rate (%) 3.40 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 3.00 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.5 1.7
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.90 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 4.5
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 312.00 193 182 179 150 170
Inflation Rate (%) 1.90 2 1.8 1.7 2.5 2.3
Inflation Rate Mom (%) -0.10 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
Interest Rate (%) 2.50 2.5 2.75 2.75 3 3.5
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -55488.00 -52000 -44000 -56000 -60000 -53000
Current Account (USD Million) -124817.00 -109000 -103000 -101000 -101000 -125000
Current Account to GDP (%) -2.40 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.5
Government Debt to GDP (%) 105.40 108 108 108 108 109
Government Budget (% of GDP) -3.50 -5 -5 -5 -5 -6
Business Confidence (Index Points) 54.10 53 55 57 53 52
Manufacturing PMI 53.80 52.1 52.8 53.2 52 51
Non Manufacturing PMI 57.60 54 54.2 56 53 52
Services PMI (Index Points) 54.40 53.1 54 55.3 53.2 54.8
Consumer Confidence (Index Points) 90.70 95 96 97 92 86.7
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.20 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4
Building Permits (Thousand) 1328.00 1320 1246 1241 1240 1315
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 37 37 35
GDP Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
GDP Growth Rate (%) 3.40 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 3.00 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.5 1.7
GDP (USD Billion) 19390.60 20220 20220 20220 20220 20700
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion) 18664.97 18782 19030 19169 19132 19457
Gross National Product (USD Billion) 18908.02 17991 19292 19419 19381 19710
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion) 3331.79 3353 3415 3422 3415 3473
GDP per capita (USD) 53128.54 54100 54100 54100 54100 54800
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 54225.45 56900 56900 56900 56900 58500
GDP From Agriculture (USD Billion) 216.90 218 223 223 222 226
GDP From Construction (USD Billion) 641.40 653 659 659 657 669
GDP From Manufacturing (USD Billion) 2125.80 2167 2185 2183 2179 2216
GDP From Mining (USD Billion) 429.80 429 442 441 441 448
GDP From Public Administration (USD Billion) 2175.50 2227 2236 2234 2230 2268
GDP From Services (USD Billion) 12700.80 12869 13056 13044 13018 13240
GDP From Transport (USD Billion) 542.40 556 558 557 556 565
GDP From Utilities (USD Billion) 284.30 279 292 292 291 296
Labour Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.90 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 4.5
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 312.00 193 182 179 150 170
Government Payrolls (Thousand) 11.00 1 15 6.87 10 11
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand) 301.00 188 178 166 142 161
Manufacturing Payrolls (Thousand) 32.00 12 1 6 15 -2
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 213.00 215 209 201 209 238
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand) 1737.00 1626 1610 1630 1650 1700
ADP Employment Change (Thousand) 271.00 220 219 219 145 150
Employed Persons (Thousand) 156945.00 156189 156389 156566 155190 154000
Average Hourly Earnings (%) 0.40 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 34.50 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.4 34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 63.10 62.7 62.7 62.7 63 62.9
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 0.77 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 6540.00 5900 6732 6300 5500 5200
Job Offers (Thousand) 6888.00 6300 6700 6600 5818 5800
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 43884.00 55080 36000 42000 34000 31000
Wages (USD/Hour) 23.05 23.65 24.05 24.55 24.8 25.9
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 21.91 21.9 21.45 21.75 21.8 22.4
Minimum Wages (USD/Hour) 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25
Employment Cost Index (%) 0.80 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6
Population (Million) 325.72 326 326 326 326 326
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Wages Low Skilled (USD/Month) 1960.00 2150 2150 2150 2150 2200
Wages High Skilled (USD/Month) 4520.00 4500 4550 4550 4500 4550
Living Wage Family (USD/Month) 2380.00 2380 2380 2380 2300 2380
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 26994.00 26990 26700 26800 27000 2750
Prices Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Inflation Rate (%) 1.90 2 1.8 1.7 2.5 2.3
Inflation Rate Mom (%) -0.10 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
Consumer Price Index CPI (Index Points) 252.73 255 257 258 259 265
Core Consumer Prices (Index Points) 260.03 262 263 264 265 271
Core Inflation Rate (%) 2.20 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.2
GDP Deflator (Index Points) 110.68 116 117 113 118 124
Producer Prices (Index Points) 117.10 121 120 120 125 130
Producer Prices Change (%) 2.50 2.8 3.1 3.2 2.9 3.2
Food Inflation (%) 1.60 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.8 2.1
CPI Housing Utilities (Index Points) 261.36 262 265 266 267 273
CPI Transportation (Index Points) 204.54 213 220 217 215 220
Inflation Expectations (%) 3.00 3.1 3.1 3 3 3.2
Money Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Interest Rate (%) 2.50 2.5 2.75 2.75 3 3.5
Interbank Rate (%) 2.76 2.79 2.79 2.79 2.79 2.79
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 4102109.00 4352601 4350218 4036945 4305838 4200000
Private Debt to GDP (%) 202.80 195 195 205 195 191
Trade Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -55488.00 -52000 -44000 -56000 -60000 -53000
Current Account (USD Million) -124817.00 -109000 -103000 -101000 -101000 -125000
Current Account to GDP (%) -2.40 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.5
Imports (USD Million) 266534.00 259000 257000 269000 258000 259000
Exports (USD Million) 211046.00 207000 213000 213000 198000 206000
Terms of Trade (Index Points) 106.98 99.45 99.65 99.74 99.74 92.43
Net Long Term Tic Flows (USD Million) 31281.00 50201 49156 49370 49413 49404
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 11537.00 12500 12730 12800 13000 12500
Government Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Government Debt to GDP (%) 105.40 108 108 108 108 109
Government Budget (% of GDP) -3.50 -5 -5 -5 -5 -6
Government Budget Value (USD Million) -205000.00 -45667 -58601 -62101 -62737 -62500
Government Spending (USD Billion) 3192.01 3231 3261 3278 3272 3327
Government Spending To GDP (%) 37.70 37.7 37.7 37.7 37.7 37.7
Taxes Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 37 37 35
Sales Tax Rate (%) 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate (%) 15.30 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
Business Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Business Confidence (Index Points) 54.10 53 55 57 53 52
Manufacturing PMI 53.80 52.1 52.8 53.2 52 51
Non Manufacturing PMI 57.60 54 54.2 56 53 52
Services PMI (Index Points) 54.40 53.1 54 55.3 53.2 54.8
Composite Pmi (Index Points) 54.40 55.2 55.4 54.2 55 55.1
Industrial Production (%) 4.00 2.9 3 2.6 2 1.1
Industrial Production Mom (%) 0.30 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2
Manufacturing Production (%) 3.20 1.8 2.38 2.31 2 1.9
Capacity Utilization (%) 78.73 78.5 78.6 78.82 79 78
Durable Goods Orders (%) 0.80 -1.5 2.2 1.5 2.5 2.4
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%) -0.10 -0.8 1.8 1.2 2 1.3
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%) -0.30 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.1
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.30 0.3 1.2 0.5 0.8 1
Factory Orders (%) -2.10 -0.9 2.2 1.8 1.5 0.8
Business Inventories (%) 0.60 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2
Wholesale Inventories (%) 0.80 0.3 0.4 0.68 -0.2 0.2
Corporate Profits (USD Billion) 2076.82 2114 2131 2145 2159 2213
NFIB Business Optimism Index (Index Points) 104.40 107 105 102 97 97
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Index Points) 17.00 25 9.41 10 18 16
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Index Points) -8.00 10 11 7 2 3
Ism New York Index (%) 65.40 56 53.9 60 57 55.9
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Index Points) 3.90 19 17 22 15 10
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Index Points) -5.10 20.1 28.6 19.36 15 12
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.22 0.7 0.22 0.21 0.38 0.05
Chicago Pmi (Index Points) 65.40 61 58 56 54 56
Total Vehicle Sales (Million) 17.55 16.9 17 18 17 17.3
Car Production (Million Units) 3.00 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.05 3.54
Crude Oil Stocks Change (BBL/1Million) -2.68 2.5 4.5 3.8 2.7 2.6
Gasoline Stocks Change (Thousand Barrels) 7503.00 2200 -1600 -1200 500 2000
Natural Gas Stocks Change (Billion cf) -81.00 -55 75 55 -170 -200
API Crude Oil Stock Change (BBL/1Million) -0.56 4.8 -3.2 5.2 -3.2 2
Mining Production (%) 13.40 9 11 13.88 8.5 4
Consumer Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Consumer Confidence (Index Points) 90.70 95 96 97 92 86.7
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.20 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4
Retail Sales YoY (%) 4.20 4.2 4 5.2 3.9 4
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) 0.20 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.4
Consumer Spending (USD Billion) 12953.29 13041 13202 13303 13277 13503
Personal Spending (%) 0.40 0.5 0.3 0.35 0.5 0.5
Personal Income (%) 0.20 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.3
Personal Savings (%) 6.00 6.7 6.8 7 6 5.2
Consumer Credit (USD Billion) 22.15 13 14 10.5 10 8
Bank Lending Rate (%) 5.35 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25
Economic Optimism Index 52.30 52 51.3 53.9 51 50
Redbook Index (%) 6.70 5.2 4.8 4 4.5 4
Chain Store Sales (USD Million) 3959.00 4200 4000 4050 9150 9200
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.60 0.63 0.62 0.6 0.59 0.59
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 76.60 78 78 78 78 79
Housing Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Building Permits (Thousand) 1328.00 1320 1246 1241 1240 1315
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 1256.00 1300 1218 1215 1210 1280
New Home Sales (Thousand) 544.00 615 635 595 585 590
Pending Home Sales (%) -7.70 1.1 1.3 -5.31 1.6 1.2
Existing Home Sales (Thousand) 5320.00 5500 5250 5251 5300 5000
Construction Spending (%) -0.10 0.4 -0.3 0.8 1.1 0.4
Housing Index (%) 0.30 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5
Nahb Housing Market Index 58.00 66 65.3 65 59 53
Mortgage Rate (%) 4.74 4.84 4.84 4.84 4.84 6.5
Mortgage Applications (%) 13.50 3.4 -0.8 3.5 2.7 0.9
Case Shiller Home Price Index (Index Points) 213.89 215 218 221 220 230
Home Ownership Rate (%) 64.40 64.6 65 64.8 64.8 64.5


This page has economic forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy.