Markets Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Currency 92.39 96.06 96.48 96.91 97.33 98.17
Stock Market (points) 29234.00 28736 28174 27620 27080 26002
Government Bond 10Y (%) 0.83 0.85 0.88 0.91 0.94 0.99

Overview Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) 33.10 3 3.8 2.5 2.9 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -2.90 1 2.3 3.4 3.7 3.8
Unemployment Rate (%) 6.90 7.6 6.8 6.5 6.5 6.5
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 638.00 1000 100 280 130 107
Inflation Rate (%) 1.20 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.5
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.00 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6
Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -63862.00 -62000 -47000 -51000 -50000 -63000
Current Account (USD Million) -170541.00 -142000 -142000 -117000 -99000 -117000
Current Account to GDP (%) -2.30 -3 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6
Government Debt to GDP (%) 106.90 120 125 125 125 125
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.60 -12.9 -10.2 -10.2 -10.2 -10.2
Business Confidence (points) 59.30 51 52 53 51 53.4
Services PMI (points) 56.90 51.8 51.1 50 52 50.5
Manufacturing PMI (points) 53.40 52.1 49 50 51 50
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 56.60 52 50 51 51 50
Consumer Confidence (points) 77.00 76 77 80 82 88
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.30 0.9 1.7 0.3 0.4 2.4
Building Permits (Thousand) 1545.00 1380 1300 1310 1470 1200
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 35 35 35 35

GDP Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) 33.10 3 3.8 2.5 2.9 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -2.90 1 2.3 3.4 3.7 3.8
GDP (USD Billion) 21427.70 19800 21500 21500 21500 21500
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion) 18584.00 19523 19446 19448 17870 19875
Gross National Product (USD Billion) 17442.93 19775 19705 19674 17995 20131
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion) 3296.69 3493 3421 3453 3205 3556
GDP per capita (USD) 55809.00 53240 54200 54200 54200 54200
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 62682.80 59770 60500 60500 60500 60500
GDP From Agriculture (USD Billion) 235.90 221 247 260 263 225
GDP From Construction (USD Billion) 615.80 672 660 670 677 684
GDP From Manufacturing (USD Billion) 1962.90 2226 2207 2208 2231 2266
GDP From Mining (USD Billion) 438.50 447 552 553 559 455
GDP From Public Administration (USD Billion) 2133.70 2269 2249 2262 2287 2310
GDP From Services (USD Billion) 11847.20 13340 13419 13385 13529 13580
GDP From Transport (USD Billion) 438.90 568 567 561 567 578
GDP From Utilities (USD Billion) 295.70 292 301 308 312 297

Labour Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Unemployment Rate (%) 6.90 7.6 6.8 6.5 6.5 6.5
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 638.00 1000 100 280 130 107
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand) 906.00 870 90 270 120 105
Government Payrolls (Thousand) -268.00 -30 10 10 50 2
Manufacturing Payrolls (Thousand) 38.00 40 2 20 10 2
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 742.00 650 500 400 350 300
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand) 6372.00 10000 9000 8000 4500 3900
ADP Employment Change (Thousand) 365.00 150 100 200 170 150
Employed Persons (Thousand) 149806.00 150000 152000 155000 157000 158000
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 11061.00 11000 9000 8500 7000 6890
Average Hourly Earnings (%) 0.10 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 34.80 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.4 34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 61.70 61.6 61.9 61.9 61.9 62.7
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 2.21 1.1 2 1.8 1.5 1.6
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 11.70 14.7 13.9 13.6 13.6 13.6
Productivity (points) 112.41 109 110 111 110 111
Labour Costs (points) 114.04 120 110 115 118 126
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 6608.00 5800 5600 6100 6500 6200
Job Offers (Thousand) 6436.00 6100 6800 7200 6500 6600
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 80666.00 71000 71000 50000 45000 55000
Wages (USD/Hour) 24.82 23.36 24.22 24.98 25.48 24.72
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 22.95 22.11 22.68 22.77 23.59 23.39
Wage Growth (%) 0.53 -2 0.5 1 2.8 5.8
Minimum Wages (USD/Hour) 7.25 7.25 9 9 9 9
Employment Cost Index (%) 0.50 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6
Population (Million) 329.13 331 331 331 331 333
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Employment Rate (%) 57.40 58.8 58.8 60.9 60.9 60.8
Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Thousand) 742.00 750 600 500 450 350
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 123593.00 125302 128302 129000 131000 133627
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 26163.00 27500 27500 27500 27500 26500

Prices Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Inflation Rate (%) 1.20 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.5
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.00 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 260.33 263 262 260 264 267
Core Consumer Prices (points) 269.30 271 271 270 274 276
Core Inflation Rate (%) 1.60 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.5
GDP Deflator (points) 113.85 124 115 114 114 116
Producer Prices (points) 119.30 121 120 119 120 123
Producer Prices Change (%) 0.50 1.5 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.8
Export Prices (points) 123.10 124 125 126 127 128
Import Prices (points) 123.20 126 126 126 127 128
Food Inflation (%) 3.90 4 3.5 2.7 2.5 2.3
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 273.01 273 274 275 277 277
CPI Transportation (points) 203.09 212 207 198 205 215
Core Pce Price Index (points) 114.04 114 115 115 116 116
Core Producer Prices (points) 119.50 121 121 121 121 121
Inflation Expectations (%) 2.84 3.2 3.1 3 2.9 2.5
Pce Price Index (points) 111.68 112 113 113 114 114

Money Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Interbank Rate (%) 0.22 2.6 0.24 0.24 0.24 2.85
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 138961.00 141900 143200 139700 138000 130150
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 7124894.00 6917676 7161339 7255597 7742000 8586458
Banks Balance Sheet (USD Million) 20115445.00 24224722 26082618 28672113 30101100 32856716
Private Debt to GDP (%) 220.20 230 228 228 228 228
Repo Rate 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13

Trade Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -63862.00 -62000 -47000 -51000 -50000 -63000
Current Account (USD Million) -170541.00 -142000 -142000 -117000 -99000 -117000
Current Account to GDP (%) -2.30 -3 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6
Imports (USD Million) 240216.00 245000 242000 251000 253000 259000
Exports (USD Million) 176354.00 190000 195000 200000 203000 206000
Terms of Trade (points) 103.85 98.62 99.41 100 100 100
Capital Flows (USD Million) -79900.00 -22000 62000 40200 47000 35000
Foreign Direct Investment (USD Million) 26661.00 46000 50000 50000 52000 53000
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 10579.00 10500 11000 11000 11200 11000
Goods Trade Balance (USD Million) -79370.00 -81000 -72000 -73000 -74000 -73000
Tourism Revenues (USD Million) 4119.00 6220 6400 7840 8920 9460
Tourist Arrivals 734036.00 1200000 1500000 1800000 2000000 2000100

Government Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Government Debt to GDP (%) 106.90 120 125 125 125 125
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.60 -12.9 -10.2 -10.2 -10.2 -10.2
Government Budget Value (USD Million) -284000.00 -62500 -145000 -115000 5000 -62490
Government Spending (USD Billion) 3330.47 3318 3371 3425 3486 3377
Government Revenues (USD Million) 237698.00 300000 280000 360000 350000 340000
Fiscal Expenditure (USD Million) 521769.00 445000 395000 355000 355000 350000
Government Spending To GDP (%) 37.80 42 40.3 40.3 40.3 40.3
Military Expenditure (USD Million) 633565.00 771394 771394 771394 771394 771394

Taxes Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate (%) 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate (%) 15.30 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65

Business Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Business Confidence (points) 59.30 51 52 53 51 53.4
Services PMI (points) 56.90 51.8 51.1 50 52 50.5
Manufacturing PMI (points) 53.40 52.1 49 50 51 50
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 56.60 52 50 51 51 50
Composite Pmi (points) 56.30 51 48 50 51 50.4
Industrial Production (%) -5.30 -3.5 -0.6 3.4 4.2 0.9
Industrial Production Mom (%) 1.10 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.3
Manufacturing Production (%) -3.90 -1.5 2.9 3.5 1.9 0.7
Capacity Utilization (%) 72.80 72.6 74.6 76.3 77 78.4
Durable Goods Orders (%) 1.90 3.4 3.4 3 3.7 0.3
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%) 3.40 3.3 3.3 0.8 1.7 0.5
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.80 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.2
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.50 1 1 1.2 1.2 0.3
Factory Orders (%) 1.10 0.8 0.8 1.5 1.7 0.5
Business Inventories (%) 0.70 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2
Changes in Inventories (USD Billion) -0.97 35 25 20 47 33
Wholesale Inventories (%) 0.40 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2
Bankruptcies (Companies) 22391.00 35000 35000 24000 22000 30000
Corporate Profits (USD Billion) 1589.40 1750 1750 1900 1950 1870
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points) 104.00 95 100 104 100 99
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points) 6.30 10 8 7 12 4
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 26.30 15 10 12 15 5
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 29.00 -3 2 4 3 2.5
Ism New York Index (%) 65.10 45 48 52 53 52
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 19.80 2 2 8 6 3
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.27 0.1 0 0.5 0.3 -0.6
Chicago Pmi (points) 61.10 50.2 51 49 51 52
Total Vehicle Sales (Million) 16.20 16.3 16.5 16.5 17.1 17.3
Car Production (Million Units) 2.32 2.6 2.8 3 2.7 2.5
Car Registrations (Thousand) 313.42 300 340 350 360 300
Crude Oil Stocks Change (BBL/1Million) 0.77 2.6 2.6 10 -5 2.6
Gasoline Stocks Change (Thousand Barrels) 2611.00 -150 210 430 -15 2000
Natural Gas Stocks Change (Billion cf) 31.00 -200 120 80 -40 20
Leading Economic Index (points) 123.50 128 130 129 131 127
Crude Oil Rigs 231.00 180 195 201 207 250
API Crude Oil Stock Change (BBL/1Million) 4.17 -2 -2 3.5 -5 2
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 20.00 9 10 12 8 4
Mining Production (%) -14.40 -8 -2.1 3.8 4 2.3
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 5709.00 6150 6440 6750 6810 7150

Consumer Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Consumer Confidence (points) 77.00 76 77 80 82 88
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.30 0.9 1.7 0.3 0.4 2.4
Retail Sales YoY (%) 5.70 3 3 2.1 2.4 1.8
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) 0.20 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4
Consumer Spending (USD Billion) 12917.33 13559 13487 13420 12221 13803
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion) 17589.21 16592 16733 16931 18448 16891
Personal Spending (%) 1.40 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7
Personal Income (%) 0.90 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.3
Personal Savings (%) 14.30 13 12 10 8 9.5
Consumer Credit (USD Billion) 16.21 15.98 -15.84 11.78 -7.49 16.27
Private Sector Credit (USD Billion) 10431.33 10900 10700 10600 107000 9900
Bank Lending Rate (%) 3.25 5.5 3.25 3.25 3.25 5.75
Economic Optimism Index 50.00 53 49 50 53 49
Redbook Index (%) 1.70 -0.7 1.1 1.7 2 3
Chain Store Sales (USD Million) 1798.00 3000 3500 4000 4500 6000
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 75.20 79 79 79 79 79
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.5 0.47 0.52

Housing Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Building Permits (Thousand) 1545.00 1380 1300 1310 1470 1200
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 1530.00 1280 1200 1310 1450 1170
New Home Sales (Thousand units) 959.00 750 620 640 620 560
Pending Home Sales (%) 20.50 2.2 2.5 3.8 4 1.7
Existing Home Sales (Thousand) 6850.00 5500 5800 6000 5900 5200
Construction Spending (%) 0.30 0.4 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.4
Housing Index (%) 1.50 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3
Nahb Housing Market Index 90.00 85 78 72 70 75
Mortgage Rate (%) 2.99 3.03 3.07 3.17 3.25 3.3
Mortgage Applications (%) -0.30 1.7 1.7 -0.6 2.6 0.9
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points) 229.35 228 222 226 227 225
Home Ownership Rate (%) 67.40 64.5 64.5 64.5 64.5 64.5


This page has economic forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy.