United States - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.20 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.6 2 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.90 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.5 percent
Inflation Rate 2.70 3 3 2.9 3 2.5 percent
Interest Rate 2.00 2.25 2.5 2.5 2.75 3 percent
Balance of Trade -50082.00 -51450 -55000 -52000 -47000 -53000 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 105.40 108 108 108 108 109 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 94.17
 93.86 94.78 95.7 96 96
Stock Market 26492.21
points		 25777 25482 25193 24906 23790
Government Bond 10Y 3.10
percent		 2.93 2.98 3.03 3.09 3.3
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.20
percent		 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.6 2
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.90
percent		 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.6 1.6
GDP 19390.60
USD Billion		 19800 19800 20220 20220 20700
GDP Constant Prices 18514.60
USD Billion		 18574 18716 18782 18996 19491
Gross National Product 18767.67
USD Billion		 17787 17941 17991 19256 18684
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3320.71
USD Billion		 3240 3296 3353 3407 3432
GDP per capita 53128.54
USD		 53500 53500 54100 54100 54800
GDP per capita PPP 54225.45
USD		 55220 55220 56900 56900 58500
GDP From Agriculture 149.90
USD Billion		 156 156 154 154 162
GDP From Construction 666.90
USD Billion		 663 678 684 684 706
GDP From Manufacturing 2000.40
USD Billion		 2007 2037 2050 2052 2121
GDP From Mining 392.50
USD Billion		 388 398 402 403 414
GDP From Public Administration 2083.90
USD Billion		 2139 2143 2136 2138 2232
GDP From Services 11785.60
USD Billion		 11958 12048 12080 12092 12547
GDP From Transport 485.70
USD Billion		 484 491 498 498 511
GDP From Utilities 278.70
USD Billion		 284 291 286 286 303
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.90
percent		 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.5
Non Farm Payrolls 201.00
Thousand		 195 165 193 182 170
Government Payrolls -3.00
Thousand		 5 12 1 15 11
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 204.00
Thousand		 190 160 188 178 161
Manufacturing Payrolls -3.00
Thousand		 20 10 12 1 -2
Initial Jobless Claims 201.00
Thousand		 208 208 208 208 208
Continuing Jobless Claims 1645.00
Thousand		 1685 1651 1636 1630 1625
ADP Employment Change 163.00
Thousand		 193 160 178 177 150
Employed Persons 155542.00
Thousand		 155730 155964 156189 156390 154000
Unemployed Persons 6234.00
Thousand 		6188 6103 6023 5959 5722
Average Hourly Earnings 0.40
percent		 0.2 0.2 0.22 0.23 0.23
Average Weekly Hours 34.50
Hours		 34.4 34.4 34.52 34.5 34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.70
percent		 62.8 62.8 62.7 62.7 62.9
Long Term Unemployment Rate 0.82
percent		 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4
Youth Unemployment Rate 8.40
percent		 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.4
Productivity 105.08
Index Points		 105 106 106 106 108
Labour Costs 109.33
Index Points		 110 110 110 111 114
Job Vacancies 7313.00
Thousand		 6687 6674 6717 6732 6717
Job Offers 6939.00
Thousand		 6913 6919 6917 6915 6911
Challenger Job Cuts 38472.00
Persons		 38727 62300 37080 36800 63500
Wages 22.73
USD/Hour		 22.85 23.25 23.65 24.05 25.9
Wages in Manufacturing 21.42
USD/Hour		 21.49 21.85 22.05 22.45 24
Wage Growth 4.83
percent		 4.85 4.85 4.85 4.85 4.85
Minimum Wages 7.25
USD/Hour		 7.25 7.25 7.5 7.5 7.5
Employment Cost Index 0.60
percent		 0.65 0.67 0.65 0.65 0.65
Population 325.72
Million		 328 328 329 329 335
Retirement Age Women 66.00
 66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 66.00
 66 66 66 66 66
Wages Low Skilled 2090.00
USD/Month		 2150 2150 2150 2150 2200
Wages High Skilled 4290.00
USD/Month		 4500 4500 4500 4550 4550
Employment Rate 60.30
percent		 60.4 60.3 60.3 60.3 60.3
Full Time Employment 128577.00
Thousand		 128738 128999 129244 129452 130382
Living Wage Family 2240.00
USD/Month		 2300 2300 2380 2380 2380
Living Wage Individual 1540.00
USD/Month		 1485 1492 1488 1484 1469
Part Time Employment 26913.00
Thousand		 26982 27002 26997 26998 26998
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.70
percent		 3 3 2.9 3 2.5
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20
percent		 0.3 0.3 0.12 0.12 0.1
Consumer Price Index CPI 251.85
Index Points		 254 255 257 258 269
Core Consumer Prices 258.14
Index Points		 259 260 262 263 272
Core Inflation Rate 2.20
percent		 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2
GDP Deflator 110.25
Index Points		 115 116 116 117 124
Producer Prices 116.30
Index Points		 117 118 119 120 125
Producer Prices Change 2.80
percent		 3 3 2.8 3.1 3.2
Export Prices 127.30
Index Points		 129 129 129 129 119
Import Prices 127.40
Index Points		 127 126 126 126 126
Food Inflation 1.40
percent		 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.1
Core Pce Price Index 110.12
Index Points		 110 111 111 112 120
Core Producer Prices 115.30
Index Points		 116 117 117 118 124
CPI Housing Utilities 259.88
Index Points		 261 261 264 266 276
CPI Transportation 213.48
Index Points		 211 209 214 221 220
Pce Price Index 108.31
Index Points		 109 117 109 110 121
Inflation Expectations 3.00
percent		 2.89 2.89 2.89 2.89 2.89
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 2.00
percent		 2.25 2.5 2.5 2.75 3
Interbank Rate 2.37
percent		 2.62 2.87 2.87 3.12 3.37
Money Supply M0 3584502.00
USD Million		 3614937 3606586 3604350 3603872 3603682
Money Supply M1 3702.80
USD Billion		 3691 3729 3767 3804 4141
Money Supply M2 14217.00
USD Billion		 14258 14416 14575 14734 16297
Foreign Exchange Reserves 124694.00
USD Million		 125061 124904 124871 124870 124872
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4170556.00
USD Million		 4360790 4358306 4352601 4350218 4200000
Banks Balance Sheet 16794750.00
USD Million		 16774321 16777591 16778386 16778594 16778668
Loans to Private Sector 2217.37
USD Billion		 2276 2337 2389 2434 2653
Private Debt to GDP 202.80
percent		 198 198 195 195 191
Foreign Bond Investment 18938.00
USD Million		 5411 6303 6326 6333 6333
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -50082.00
USD Million		 -51450 -55000 -52000 -47000 -53000
Exports 211077.00
USD Million		 206000 205000 207000 210000 206000
Imports 261159.00
USD Million		 257000 260000 259000 257000 259000
Current Account -101460.00
USD Million		 -105000 -102000 -109000 -103000 -125000
Current Account to GDP -2.40
percent		 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -3
External Debt 19180854.00
USD Million		 -7980634 -7977962 -7966377 -7965937 -7954592
Terms of Trade 106.98
Index Points		 102 102 102 102 94.09
Capital Flows 52174.00
USD Million		 -4018 25781 35123 40113 40167
Foreign Direct Investment 47253.00
USD Million		 46873 47709 46901 47375 47284
Net Long Term Tic Flows 74804.00
USD Million		 49236 49879 49649 49620 49625
Gold Reserves 8134.00
Tonnes		 8134 8134 8134 8134 8134
Crude Oil Production 10674.00
BBL/D/1K		 9806 9980 9809 10030 11500
Terrorism Index 5.43
 5.2 5.2 5.6 5.6 5.8
Tourism Revenues 21491.00
USD Million		 21452 21477 21460 21472 21467
Tourist Arrivals 6145476.00
 6572800 6594500 6591200 6587400 6588300
Weapons Sales 12394.00
USD Million		 11923 12283 12241 12200 11141
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 105.40
percent		 108 108 108 108 109
Government Budget -3.50
percent of GDP		 -3.9 -5 -5 -5 -6
Government Budget Value -214148.00
USD Million		 -47267 -58790 -59598 -59958 -60423
Government Spending 3170.56
USD Billion		 3200 3225 3231 3253 3358
Government Revenues 219115.00
USD Million		 316273 299086 295111 294542 294258
Government Debt 21458850.00
USD Million		 21548969 21796964 22054794 22309049 24718189
Fiscal Expenditure 433263.00
USD Million		 363540 356324 354709 354501 354681
Asylum Applications 6901.00
Persons		 6929 6963 6978 6982 6981
Military Expenditure 597177.90
USD Million		 600321 752325 599577 599947 771394
Government Spending To Gdp 37.80
percent		 37.89 38.06 38.09 38.11 37.73
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 61.30
Index Points		 55 54 53 55 52
Manufacturing PMI 55.60
 53.8 53 52.1 52.8 53
Non Manufacturing PMI 58.50
 54 54.6 54 54.2 52
Services PMI 52.90
Index Points		 52.9 53.4 53.1 54 54.8
Composite Pmi 53.40
Index Points		 53.8 53.3 55.2 55.4 55.1
Industrial Production 4.90
percent		 3.5 3 2.9 3 1.1
Industrial Production Mom 0.40
percent		 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2
Manufacturing Production 3.10
percent		 2.8 2.1 1.8 1.81 1.9
Capacity Utilization 78.08
percent		 78.2 78.3 78.5 78.6 78
Durable Goods Orders -1.70
percent		 0.34 -0.3 0.33 0.33 0.4
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -1.00
percent		 0.44 0.38 0.33 0.32 0.32
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.20
percent		 0.21 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.1
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.20
percent		 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.27
Factory Orders -0.80
percent		 0.3 0.1 0.26 0.27 0.2
New Orders 497754.00
USD Million		 499257 498692 498551 498516 498502
Business Inventories 0.60
percent		 0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.31 0.2
Changes in Inventories -26.93
USD Billion		 19.5 69 -23.3 -6.55 75
Wholesale Inventories 0.60
percent		 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2
Bankruptcies 22245.00
Companies		 23013 22896 22926 22911 22907
Corporate Profits 2012.60
USD Billion		 2042 2064 2079 2094 2225
NFIB Business Optimism Index 108.80
Index Points		 102 103 107 105 97
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 22.90
Index Points		 21 21 25 10.17 16
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 29.00
Index Points		 20 5 10 8.49 3
Ism New York Index 76.50
percent		 56.8 55 56 53.9 55.9
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 19.00
Index Points		 18 21 19 17 10
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 28.10
Index Points		 31.4 27.9 20.1 32 12
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.18
 0.15 0.9 0.7 0.19 0.05
Chicago Pmi 63.60
Index Points		 59 59.1 61 58 56
Total Vehicle Sales 16.72
Million		 16.88 19.4 16.89 16.88 18.7
Car Production 2.45
Million Units		 2.98 2.97 3.1 3.2 3.54
Car Registrations 445.58
Thousand		 455 476 481 474 481
Crude Oil Stocks Change -2.06
BBL/1Million		 -0.58 -2 0.06 0.06 0.1
Gasoline Stocks Change -1719.00
Thousand Barrels		 -500 1000 17.19 17.19 500
Natural Gas Stocks Change 86.00
Billion cf		 67.12 69.77 69.88 69.89 69.89
Leading Economic Index 123.61
Index Points		 124 125 126 126 132
Internet Speed 18747.58
KBps		 22628 23553 24392 24867 29875
IP Addresses 128949703.00
IP		 129480480 129684171 129654649 129670238 129691461
Crude Oil Rigs 866.00
 859 855 854 854 853
API Crude Oil Stock Change 2.90
BBL/1Million		 -0.29 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.3
Steel Production 7275.00
Thousand Tonnes		 7283 6870 7330 7280 7150
Competitiveness Index 5.85
Points		 5.85 5.85 5.9 5.9 5.85
Competitiveness Rank 2.00
 3 3 2 2 3
Corruption Index 75.00
Points		 74 74 75 75 76
Corruption Rank 16.00
 17 16 16 16 16
Ease of Doing Business 6.00
 7 6 7 7 6
Mining Production 14.10
percent		 12.5 11 9 11 4
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 100.80
Index Points		 100 93 95 96 86.7
Retail Sales MoM 0.10
percent		 0.3 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 6.60
percent		 5.2 4 4.2 6.49 4
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.30
percent		 0.42 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.4
Consumer Spending 12841.20
USD Billion		 12900 13049 13041 13175 13590
Disposable Personal Income 15566.48
USD Billion		 15731 15776 15784 15782 15745
Personal Spending 0.40
percent		 0.36 0.7 0.34 0.34 0.5
Personal Income 0.30
percent		 0.33 0.4 0.33 0.33 0.33
Personal Savings 6.70
percent		 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.81 5.2
Consumer Credit 16.60
USD Billion		 15.52 15.05 15.05 15.04 15.04
Private Sector Credit 9383.23
USD Billion		 9406 9451 9495 9536 9843
Bank Lending Rate 5.00
percent		 5.25 5.5 5.5 5.75 6
Economic Optimism Index 55.70
 52.9 52.3 52 51.3 50
Redbook Index 5.80
percent		 5.73 5.79 5.79 5.79 5.79
Chain Store Sales 3782.00
USD Million		 4641 4563 4586 4581 4582
Gasoline Prices 0.75
USD/Liter		 0.76 0.72 0.68 0.64 0.51
Households Debt To Gdp 77.30
percent of GDP		 78.68 81.2 78.76 78.79 82.6
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Building Permits 1229.00
Thousand		 1230 1230 1320 1277 1315
Housing Starts 1282.00
Thousand units		 1250 1330 1300 1239 1280
New Home Sales 627.00
Thousand		 580 600 615 635 590
Pending Home Sales -2.30
percent		 -1.4 0.1 1.1 1.3 1.2
Existing Home Sales 5340.00
Thousand		 5500 5600 5500 5375 5000
Construction Spending 0.10
percent		 0.3 1 0.41 0.41 0.4
Housing Index 0.20
percent		 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.37 0.5
Nahb Housing Market Index 67.00
 70 68 66 68.28 53
Mortgage Rate 4.88
percent		 4.79 4.79 4.79 4.79 6.5
Mortgage Applications 1.60
percent		 0.42 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39
Case Shiller Home Price Index 213.76
Index Points		 212 213 215 218 230
Home Ownership Rate 64.30
percent		 64.42 64.56 64.58 64.63 64.99
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 21.00
percent		 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate 37.00
percent		 37 37 37 37 35
Sales Tax Rate 0.00
percent		 0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate 15.30
percent		 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.65
percent		 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65
percent		 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature -1.42
celsius		 19.24 3.01 -1.15 18.73 8.8
Precipitation 75.78
mm		 63.34 48.58 46.48 56.22 55.37