The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas plummeted 23 points to -5.1, hitting its lowest level since mid-2016 and missing market expectations of 17.6. The production index inched down 1.1 points to 7.3; the capacity utilization index fell 1.8 points to 7.6, and the shipments index dipped 1.6 points to 6.1. Meanwhile, the new orders index moved up 4.7 points to 14.4, and the growth rate of new orders index edged up 1 point to 5.8. The company outlook index also fell markedly, dropping 17 points to -3.4, also a two-and-a-half-year low. Labor market measures suggested continued but slightly slower employment growth and longer workweeks in December: the employment index retreated 4.9 points to 11.0, a level still above average; and the hours worked index held steady at 5.0. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States averaged 3.23 Index Points from 2004 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 47.10 Index Points in June of 2004 and a record low of -60.10 Index Points in February of 2009.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States is expected to be 27.90 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States to stand at 19.36 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is projected to trend around 12.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.