The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas fell to -12.1 in June 2019 from -5.3 in May and compared with market forecasts of -1. It was the lowest reading since June 2016, as the growth rate of orders index dropped 8 points to -6.7, its weakest reading in nearly three years and the shipments index decreased to a two-year low (1.7 vs 7.6). Meanwhile, the production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from 6.3 to 8.9; the new orders index edged up to 3.7; and the capacity utilization index inched up to 9.6. Labor market measures suggested solid, but somewhat slower, growth in employment and work hours in June: the employment index declined from 11.6 to 8.8 and the hours worked index went down to 4.7. Looking ahead, the index of future general business activity decreased 12 points to -2.7, and the index of future company outlook fell 8 points but remained positive at 3.6. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States averaged 3.10 Index Points from 2004 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 47.60 Index Points in June of 2004 and a record low of -59.90 Index Points in February of 2009.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States is expected to be -6.40 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States to stand at 4.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is projected to trend around 5.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.