The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US came in at 98.4 in July 2019, little-changed from the previous month's 98.2 and slightly below market consensus of 98.5, a preliminary estimate showed. An improvement in consumer expectations was partially offset by a decline in current economic conditions. Consumer Confidence in the United States averaged 86.57 Index Points from 1952 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 111.40 Index Points in January of 2000 and a record low of 51.70 Index Points in May of 1980.

Consumer Confidence in the United States is expected to be 94.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Consumer Confidence in the United States to stand at 88.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Consumer Sentiment is projected to trend around 85.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Consumer Sentiment
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-07-19 02:00 PM Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel Jul 2.6% 2.7% 2.6%
2019-07-19 02:00 PM Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel Jul 2.6% 2.3% 2.3%
2019-07-19 02:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel Jul 98.4 98.2 98.5 96.9
2019-07-19 02:00 PM Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel Jul 90.1 89.3 89.8 88.5
2019-08-02 02:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final Jul 98.2 98.4
2019-08-16 02:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel Aug 94
2019-08-30 02:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final Aug 94

US Consumer Sentiment Slightly Below Forecasts

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US came in at 98.4 in July 2019, little-changed from the previous month's 98.2 and slightly below market consensus of 98.5, a preliminary estimate showed.

The consumer expectations sub-index rose to 90.1 in July from the previous month's 89.3; while the gauge for current economic conditions decreased to 111.1 from 111.9.

Inflation expectations for the year ahead eased to 2.6 percent in July from 2.7 percent in June; while the 5-year outlook climbed to 2.6 percent from 2.3 percent.

"Consumer sentiment remained largely unchanged in early July from June, remaining at quite favorable levels since the start of 2017. Moreover, the variations in Sentiment Index have been remarkably small, ranging from 91.2 to 101.4 in the past 30 months. Perhaps the most interesting change in the July survey was in inflation expectations, with the year-ahead rate slightly lower and the longer term rate moving to the top of the narrow range it has traveled in the past few years. Given the heightened interest in Fed policy, it is of some interest to examine the relationship between consumers’ inflation expectations and the anticipated strength in the economy as well as prospective shifts in interest rates and unemployment. Inflation expectations were divided into three groups based on responses to the January to July 2019 surveys: those who expected a year-ahead inflation rate less than or equal to 0%, an inflation rate of 1% to 3%, and those who expected an inflation rate equal to or greater than 4%. The Consumer Expectations Index falls as inflation expectations rise, signifying that consumers view higher inflation as a threat to economic growth. Higher inflation was related more frequently to rising interest rates and was associated with higher unemployment expectations. While the inflation-unemployment relationship is in the opposite direction of the Phillips curve hypothesis, that relationship is usually based on wage inflation, not overall inflation. Consumers’ views appear to be more consistent with the stagflation thesis, which holds that inflation and unemployment move in the same direction. This thesis is more consistent with how consumers process and organize diverse bits of news about the economy.", Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin, said.

University of Michigan | Joana Ferreira |
7/19/2019 2:11:05 PM

United States Consumer Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Consumer Confidence 98.40 98.20 111.40 51.70 Index Points [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.40 0.40 6.70 -3.90 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.40 2.90 11.20 -11.50 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.40 0.40 2.60 -4.00 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 13061.63 13032.30 13061.63 1403.69 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 16028.80 15956.30 16028.80 351.54 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.40 0.60 2.80 -2.10 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.50 0.50 4.60 -4.70 percent [+]
Personal Savings 6.10 6.10 17.30 2.20 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 17.09 17.46 116.79 -111.95 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 9801.37 9764.44 9801.37 39.04 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.50 5.50 20.50 2.00 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 56.60 53.20 62.90 35.80 [+]
Redbook Index 4.70 6.20 9.30 -5.80 percent [+]
Chain Store Sales 3588.00 3418.00 15875.00 2632.00 USD Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.72 0.75 1.07 0.24 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To GDP 76.30 76.60 98.60 23.80 percent of GDP [+]
Consumer Confidence Current Conditions 113.20 112.50 121.10 57.50 [+]
Consumer Confidence Economic Expectations 80.20 83.90 108.60 44.20 [+]
Consumer Confidence Price Trends 2.70 2.60 10.40 0.40 [+]

United States Consumer Sentiment

The Index of Consumer Expectations focuses on three areas: how consumers view prospects for their own financial situation, how they view prospects for the general economy over the near term, and their view of prospects for the economy over the long term. Each monthly survey contains approximately 50 core questions, each of which tracks a different aspect of consumer attitudes and expectations. The samples for the Surveys of Consumers are statistically designed to be representative of all American households, excluding those in Alaska and Hawaii. Each month, a minimum of 500 interviews are conducted by telephone. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Consumer Sentiment - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Consumer Sentiment - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on July of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
98.40 98.20 111.40 51.70 1952 - 2019 Index Points Monthly
Volume, NSA, 1966=100

Country Last Previous
Argentina 40.60 Jun/19
Australia 96.50 Jul/19
Brazil 47.00 Jun/19
Canada 54.51 Jul/19
China 123.40 May/19
Euro Area -7.20 Jun/19
France 101.00 Jun/19
Germany 9.80 Jul/19
India 97.00 Sep/19
Indonesia 126.40 Jun/19
Italy 109.60 Jun/19
Japan 38.70 Jun/19
Mexico 107.52 Jun/19
Netherlands 2.00 Jul/19
Russia -15.00 Jun/19
Saudi Arabia 112.00 Mar/19
South Africa 5.00 Jun/19
South Korea 97.50 Jun/19
Spain 102.30 Jun/19
Switzerland -6.00 Jun/19
Turkey 57.60 Jun/19
United Kingdom -13.00 Jun/19
United States 98.40 Jul/19