The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US fell to 90.7 in January of 2019 from 98.3 in December, well below market expectations of 97. It is the lowest reading since October of 2016. The decline was primarily focused on prospects for the domestic economy, with the year-ahead outlook for the national economy judged the worst since mid 2014. Consumer Confidence in the United States averaged 86.46 Index Points from 1952 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 111.40 Index Points in January of 2000 and a record low of 51.70 Index Points in May of 1980.

Consumer Confidence in the United States is expected to be 95.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Consumer Confidence in the United States to stand at 92.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Consumer Sentiment is projected to trend around 86.70 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Consumer Sentiment
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-12-21 03:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final 98.3 97.5 97.5 97.5
2018-12-21 03:00 PM Michigan Inflation Expectations Final 2.7% 2.8% 2.7%
2018-12-21 03:00 PM Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final 2.5% 2.6% 2.4%
2019-01-18 03:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel 90.7 98.3 97.0 97
2019-02-01 03:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final 98.3 94.5 90.7
2019-02-15 03:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel
2019-03-01 03:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final



US Consumer Sentiment Lowest since Trump was Elected

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US fell to 90.7 in January of 2019 from 98.3 in December, well below market expectations of 97. It is the lowest reading since October of 2016. The decline was primarily focused on prospects for the domestic economy, with the year-ahead outlook for the national economy judged the worst since mid 2014.

The current economic conditions subindex declined to 110 from 116.1 and the gauge for consumer expectations dropped to 78.3 from 87. Inflation expectations for the year ahead were flat at 2.7 percent and the 5-year outlook edged up to 2.6 percent from 2.5 percent. 

Consumer sentiment declined in early January to its lowest level since Trump was elected. The decline was primarily focused on prospects for the domestic economy, with the year-ahead outlook for the national economy judged the worst since mid 2014. The loss was due to a host of issues including the partial government shutdown, the impact of tariffs, instabilities in financial markets, the global slowdown, and the lack of clarity about monetary policies. Aside from the direct economic impact from these various issues on the economy, the indirect effect meant that half of all consumers believed that these events would have a negative impact on Trump's ability to focus on economic growth. While the January falloff in optimism is certainly consistent with a slowdown in the pace of growth, it does not yet indicate the start of a sustained downturn in economic activity. It is the strength in personal finances that will continue to support consumption expenditures at favorable levels in 2019. Nonetheless, consumers now sense a need to buttress their precautionary savings, which is typically done by reducing their discretionary spending. Evolving job and wage prospects, which were slightly weaker in early January, are critical to extending the current expansion.


University of Michigan | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com
1/18/2019 3:07:10 PM


News

US Consumer Sentiment Revised Higher
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US was revised higher to 98.3 in December of 2018 from a preliminary of 97.5 and 97.5 in November, final estimates showed. The Sentiment Index averaged 98.4 in 2018, the best year since 107.6 in 2000.
Published on 2018-12-21

US Consumer Sentiment Above Forecasts
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US was steady at 97.5 in December of 2018, the same as in the previous month and above market expectations of 97, preliminary estimates showed. In the last 2 years, consumer sentiment has been above 90, a pattern not seen since 1997 to 2000.
Published on 2018-12-07

US Consumer Sentiment Revised Lower
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US fell further to 97.5 in November of 2018 from a preliminary reading of 98.3 and 98.6 in October. It is the lowest value in three months. Both current conditions and expectations were revised lower although the drops were more related to income than political party.
Published on 2018-11-21

US Consumer Sentiment Falls Less than Expected
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US fell to 98.3 in November of 2018 from 98.6 in October but slightly higher than market expectations of 98. It is the lowest reading in three months, mainly due to a fall in consumer expectations, preliminary estimates showed. Data was collected until Wednesday night so there was only a one-day overlap after the mid-term election results were known by consumers.
Published on 2018-11-09



United States Consumer Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Consumer Confidence 90.70 98.30 111.40 51.70 Index Points [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.20 1.10 6.70 -3.90 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.20 4.80 11.20 -11.50 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.20 1.00 2.60 -4.00 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 12953.29 12842.02 12953.29 1403.69 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 15742.81 15700.50 15742.81 351.90 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.40 0.80 2.80 -2.10 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.20 0.50 4.60 -4.70 percent [+]
Personal Savings 6.00 6.20 17.30 2.20 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 22.15 24.98 118.08 -113.42 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 9579.18 9493.05 9579.18 39.04 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.35 5.25 20.50 2.00 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 52.30 52.60 62.90 35.80 [+]
Redbook Index 7.00 6.70 9.30 -5.80 percent [+]
Chain Store Sales 3959.00 3812.00 15875.00 3055.00 USD Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.60 0.67 0.99 0.32 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To GDP 76.60 77.30 98.60 23.80 percent of GDP [+]
Consumer Confidence Current Conditions 113.20 112.50 121.10 57.50 [+]
Consumer Confidence Economic Expectations 80.20 83.90 108.60 44.20 [+]
Consumer Confidence Price Trends 2.70 2.60 10.40 0.40 [+]


United States Consumer Sentiment

The Index of Consumer Expectations focuses on three areas: how consumers view prospects for their own financial situation, how they view prospects for the general economy over the near term, and their view of prospects for the economy over the long term. Each monthly survey contains approximately 50 core questions, each of which tracks a different aspect of consumer attitudes and expectations. The samples for the Surveys of Consumers are statistically designed to be representative of all American households, excluding those in Alaska and Hawaii. Each month, a minimum of 500 interviews are conducted by telephone. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Consumer Sentiment - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Consumer Sentiment - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on January of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
90.70 98.30 111.40 51.70 1952 - 2019 Index Points Monthly
Volume, NSA, 1966=100




Country Last Previous
Argentina 36.00 Dec/18
Australia 99.60 Jan/19
Brazil 114.30 Dec/18
Canada 54.17 Jan/19
China 122.10 Nov/18
Euro Area -7.90 Jan/19
France 87.00 Dec/18
Germany 10.40 Jan/19
India 94.00 Dec/18
Indonesia 127.00 Dec/18
Italy 113.10 Dec/18
Japan 42.70 Dec/18
Mexico 105.65 Dec/18
Netherlands 1.00 Jan/19
Russia -17.00 Dec/18
Saudi Arabia 106.00 Sep/18
South Africa 7.00 Sep/18
South Korea 97.20 Dec/18
Spain 90.90 Dec/18
Switzerland -6.00 Dec/18
Turkey 58.20 Jan/19
United Kingdom -14.00 Dec/18
United States 90.70 Jan/19


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