The MNI Chicago Business Barometer for the US fell sharply to 52.6 in April of 2019 from 58.7 in March and well below market expectations of 59. It is the lowest reading since January of 2017, as four of the five components declined. New orders fell for the second straight month and production pulled back significantly from March, to a level not seen since May 2016. Also, The employment indicator softened to the lowest level since October 2017. Factory gate prices saw the biggest monthly fall since December 2008, taking the indicator to the lowest level since March 2016, mainly due to steel prices. Meanwhile, order backlogs picked-up, moving above the 50-neutral level after a brief dip into contraction territory in March. Chicago Pmi in the United States averaged 54.84 Index Points from 1967 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 78.60 Index Points in January of 1973 and a record low of 21.20 Index Points in June of 1980.
Chicago Pmi in the United States is expected to be 53.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Chicago Pmi in the United States to stand at 50.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Chicago PMI is projected to trend around 56.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.