The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to -0.05 in May 2019 from a revised -0.48 in the previous month and compared to market expectations of +0.10. The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI increased to +0.07 in May from -0.44 in April; and that of the personal consumption and housing category went up to -0.06 from -0.08. Additionally, the sales, orders, and inventories category made a neutral contribution, up slightly from -0.02 in April; while employment-related indicators contributed -0.06 to the CFNAI in May, down from +0.05 in the previous month. Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0 from 1967 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.78 in September of 1983 and a record low of -5.27 in December of 1974.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be -0.30 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States to stand at -0.15 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around -0.50 in 2020, according to our econometric models.