The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to -0.15 in March 2019 from a downwardly revised -0.31 in the previous month and below market expectations of +2.55. The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI ticked up to -0.10 in March from -0.12 in February; and the sales, orders, and inventories category made a contribution of +0.05, up slightly from +0.01. Also, employment-related indicators contributed -0.03 in March, up from -0.15 in February, while the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category ticked down to -0.07 from -0.06. Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0 from 1967 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.78 in September of 1983 and a record low of -5.27 in December of 1974.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be 0.22 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States to stand at -0.15 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around -0.50 in 2020, according to our econometric models.