The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.22 in November 2018 from a downwardly revised +0.00 in the previous month. It is the highest reading since August, as the contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI increased to +0.08 in November (vs –0.09 in October) and from industrial production rose 0.6 percent in November (vs -0.2 in the prior month). The contribution from the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI moved up to +0.09 in November (vs –0.02 in October). Meanwhile, employment-related indicators contributed +0.10 to the CFNAI in November, down from +0.15 in October, as total nonfarm payrolls increased by 155,000 in November after rising by 237,000 in the previous month. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI ticked down to –0.05 in November from –0.04 in October. Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0 from 1967 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 2.77 in September of 1983 and a record low of -5.22 in December of 1974.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be 0.90 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States to stand at 0.21 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around 0.05 in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-09-24 12:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.18 0.18 0.02 0.2
2018-10-22 12:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.17 0.27 0.15
2018-11-26 01:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.24 0.14 0.42
2018-12-24 01:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.22 0.00 0.91
2019-01-28 01:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.22 0.9
2019-02-25 01:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index
2019-03-25 12:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index


United States Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence 54.10 59.30 77.50 29.40 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 53.80 55.30 57.90 50.70 [+]
Services PMI 54.40 54.70 61.00 49.30 Index Points [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 57.60 60.70 62.00 37.60 [+]
Composite Pmi 54.40 54.70 61.00 50.00 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 4.00 4.10 62.00 -33.70 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.30 0.40 16.60 -10.40 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.20 2.10 67.90 -39.40 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 78.73 78.60 89.39 66.71 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders 0.80 -4.30 23.50 -19.00 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -0.10 -1.40 26.00 -19.70 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation -0.30 0.40 7.50 -6.80 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.30 0.10 4.60 -7.20 percent [+]
New Orders 502677.00 515334.00 565232.00 223500.00 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders -2.10 0.20 10.60 -10.00 percent [+]
Business Inventories 0.60 0.50 1.30 -2.00 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 89.77 -36.81 166.37 -245.13 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.80 0.70 2.10 -2.00 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 22103.00 22245.00 82446.00 19695.00 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 2076.82 2007.53 2076.82 14.70 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 104.40 104.80 108.80 80.10 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 65.40 67.80 88.80 23.40 percent [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 17.00 9.10 58.50 -57.90 Index Points [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 3.90 11.50 39.00 -34.40 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -8.00 14.00 29.00 -44.00 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.22 0.00 2.77 -5.22 [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index -5.10 17.60 47.10 -60.10 Index Points [+]
Chicago Pmi 65.40 66.40 81.00 20.70 Index Points [+]
Car Production 3.00 2.71 9.92 1.29 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 431.72 436.69 1149.00 331.50 Thousand [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 17.55 17.49 21.77 9.05 Million [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change -2.68 -1.68 14.42 -15.22 BBL/1Million [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change -81.00 -91.00 147.00 -359.00 Billion cf [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change 7503.00 8066.00 11456.00 -8428.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Leading Economic Index 124.80 124.54 124.80 46.91 Index Points [+]
Internet Speed 18747.58 17235.62 18747.58 3609.31 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 128949703.00 127873899.00 146874246.00 89399946.00 IP [+]
API Crude Oil Stock Change -0.56 -6.27 14.30 -12.40 BBL/1Million [+]
Crude Oil Rigs 852.00 873.00 1609.00 98.00 [+]
Corruption Index 75.00 74.00 78.00 71.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 16.00 18.00 24.00 14.00 [+]
Competitiveness Index 85.64 84.84 85.64 5.42 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 1.00 1.00 7.00 1.00 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 8.00 6.00 8.00 4.00 [+]
Steel Production 7425.00 7571.00 11951.00 3799.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 13.40 12.90 108.20 -28.80 percent [+]


United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is based on a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It has an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative reading corresponds to growth below trend. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on January of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.22 0.00 2.77 -5.22 1967 - 2018 Monthly




Country Last Previous
United States 0.22 Nov/18


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