UK workers' total earnings, including bonuses, increased by an annual 3.4 percent to GBP 530 per week in the three months to January 2019, following an upwardly revised 3.5 percent rise in the prior period and beating market expectations of a 3.2 percent gain. Pay growth quickened in finance & business services (4.3% vs 4%), manufacturing (1.8% vs 1.7%) and construction (4.5% vs 4.3%) while it was steady in the public sector (at 2.8%). Meantime, wages advanced less in services (3.6% vs 3.8%); wholesaling, retailing, hotels & restaurants (2.4% vs 2.9%) and in the private sector (3.6% vs 3.7%). In January alone, wage growth picked up to 3.7 percent from an upwardly revised 3.3 percent in the previous month. Excluding bonuses, earnings were up 3.4 percent to GBP 497 per week , the same pace as in the previous period and matching market consensus. In real terms, earnings including bonuses went up 1.5 percent, and those excluding bonuses advanced 1.4 percent. Wage Growth in the United Kingdom averaged 2.85 percent from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 6.60 percent in February of 2007 and a record low of -2.60 percent in March of 2009.
Wage Growth in the United Kingdom is expected to be 3.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Wage Growth in the United Kingdom to stand at 3.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Average Weekly Earnings Growth is projected to trend around 3.30 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.