UK workers' total earnings, including bonuses, advanced by an annual 3.2% to GBP 544 per week in the three months to November 2019, the same rate as in the previous period and slightly above market expectations of a 3.1% gain. It was the smallest increase since the three months to September 2018. Pay growth eased in the private sector (3.1% vs 3.2%); finance & business services (4.2% vs 4.3%); manufacturing (2.6% vs 2.8%); construction (4.4% vs 5%) and wholesaling, retailing, hotels & restaurants (1.8% vs 2.2%), while it edged up in the public sector (3.3% vs 3.1%) and services (3.2% vs 3.1%). Excluding bonuses, earnings were up 3.4% to GBP 511 per week, the least since the three months to April, following a 3.5% increase in the previous period and in line with market estimates. In real terms, earnings including bonuses increased 1.6% to GBP 503 per week and those excluding bonuses rose 1.8% to GBP 472 per week. Wage Growth in the United Kingdom averaged 2.88 percent from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 6.60 percent in February of 2007 and a record low of -2.60 percent in March of 2009. source: Office for National Statistics
Wage Growth in the United Kingdom is expected to be 3.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Wage Growth in the United Kingdom to stand at 3.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Average Weekly Earnings Growth is projected to trend around 3.30 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.