UK workers' total earnings, including bonuses, advanced by an annual 3.4% to GBP 536 per week in the three months to May 2019, following an upwardly revised 3.2% gain in the previous period and above market consensus of a 3.1% rise. Wages advanced further in the private (3.4% vs 3.3% in April); public sector (3.6% vs 3.1%); services (3.5% vs 3.3%); finance & business services (4% vs 3.4%); manufacturing (2.1% vs 1.8%); and construction (5.2% vs 5%). Meanwhile, pay growth eased in wholesaling, retailing, hotels & restaurants (0.8% vs 1.2%). Excluding bonuses, earnings were up 3.6% to GBP 503 per week, the strongest gain in wages since the three months to July 2008, after a 3.4% increase in the prior period and beating market forecasts of 3.5%. In real terms, earnings including bonuses went up 1.7%, and those excluding bonuses advanced 1.4%. Wage Growth in the United Kingdom averaged 2.86 percent from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 6.60 percent in February of 2007 and a record low of -2.60 percent in March of 2009.
Wage Growth in the United Kingdom is expected to be 3.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Wage Growth in the United Kingdom to stand at 3.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Average Weekly Earnings Growth is projected to trend around 3.30 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.