UK workers' total earnings, including bonuses, increased by an annual 3.4 percent to GBP 527 per week in the three months to November 2018, up from a 3.3 percent gain in the prior period while markets had expected it to rise 3.3 percent. It is the fastest increase in earnings including bonuses since the three months to July 2008. Pay growth picked up in finance and business services (3.4% vs 2.8%) but remained steady in the private sector (3.5%); services (3.6%) and the public sector (2.7%). Meantime, wages advanced at a slower pace in construction (3.3% vs 3.4%); wholesaling, retailing, hotels & restaurants (2.8% vs 3.6%) and manufacturing (1.7% vs 1.9%). Excluding bonuses, earnings were up 3.3 percent to GBP 494 per week, the same pace as in the previous period, as expected. In real terms, earnings including bonuses went up 1.2 percent, and those excluding bonuses advanced 1.1 percent. Wage Growth in the United Kingdom averaged 2.84 percent from 2001 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 6.60 percent in February of 2007 and a record low of -2.60 percent in March of 2009.
Wage Growth in the United Kingdom is expected to be 2.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Wage Growth in the United Kingdom to stand at 2.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Average Weekly Earnings Growth is projected to trend around 3.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.