UK workers' total earnings, including bonuses, increased by an annual 3.2% to GBP 528 per week in the three months to March 2019, down from a 3.5% rise in the prior period and compared with market expectations of a 3.4% gain. It is the slowest rise in earnings including bonuses since the three months to September 2018. Pay growth slowed for all sectors: the private sector (3.1% vs 3.7%); the public sector (2.5% vs 2.6%); services (3.3% vs 3.6%); finance & business services (3.3% vs 3.8%); manufacturing (1.6% vs 1.9%); construction (3.7% vs 4.8%) and wholesaling, retailing, hotels & restaurants (1.6% vs 2.6%). In March alone, wage growth slowed to 2.3 percent from an upwardly revised 3.3 percent in February. Excluding bonuses, earnings were up 3.3% to GBP 498 per week, easing from a 3.4% increase in the previous period and matching estimates. In real terms, earnings including bonuses went up 1.3%, and those excluding bonuses advanced 1.5%. Wage Growth in the United Kingdom averaged 2.85 percent from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 6.60 percent in February of 2007 and a record low of -2.60 percent in March of 2009.
Wage Growth in the United Kingdom is expected to be 3.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Wage Growth in the United Kingdom to stand at 3.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Average Weekly Earnings Growth is projected to trend around 3.30 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.