Retail sales in the United Kingdom fell 0.6% mom in December 2019, following an upwardly revised 0.8% drop in November and compared to market expectations of a 0.5% rise. It marks the fifth straight month of no growth in retail sales, the longest period since records began in 1996. Main declines were seen in sales at clothing, footwear and textiles stores (-2%); department stores (-1.8%); food (-1.3%, the biggest fall since December 2016); and household goods stores (-0.1%). Year-on-year, retail sales went up 0.9%, higher than a downwardly revised 0.8% in November but below forecasts of 2.6%. Considering Q4, retail sales declined 1%, the worst performance since Q1 2017. Considering full 2019, retail sales rose 3.4%, the most in 3 years. Retail Sales MoM in the United Kingdom averaged 0.22 percent from 1996 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 3 percent in February of 2010 and a record low of -3.60 percent in January of 2010. source: Office for National Statistics

Retail Sales MoM in the United Kingdom is expected to be 0.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in the United Kingdom to stand at 0.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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United Kingdom Retail Sales MoM

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-0.60 -0.80 3.00 -3.60 1996 - 2019 percent Monthly
2016=100, SA

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-10-17 08:30 AM Sep 0% -0.3% 0% 0.3%
2019-11-14 09:30 AM Oct -0.1% 0% 0.2% 0.3%
2019-12-19 09:30 AM Nov -0.6% 0% 0.3% 0.4%
2020-01-17 09:30 AM Dec -0.6% -0.8% 0.5% 0.9%
2020-02-20 09:30 AM Jan -0.6% 0.4%

News Stream
UK Retail Sales Fall Unexpectedly
Retail sales in the UK fell by 0.6 percent from the previous month in November 2019, missing market consensus of a 0.3 percent rise and marking the fourth consecutive month of no growth in trade, the longest such run since at least 1996. All sectors contributed negatively to the quantity bought with non-store retailing and food stores both contributing the largest fall. Year-on-year, retail volumes growth slowed sharply to 1.0 percent, the weakest rate since April 2018 and also below market expectations of 2.1 percent, owing to a decline of 1.1 percent in non-food stores. The ONS noted that the official Black Friday was on November 29th, six days after the end of the November reporting period, which could affect some store sector sales. The official Black Friday date will fall into the December release.

UK Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fall in October
UK retail trade decreased 0.1 percent from a month earlier in October 2019, after showing no growth in the previous month and missing market expectations of a 0.2 percent gain. Sales dropped for household goods (-1.3 percent); textiles, clothing & footwear (-1.0 percent); other stores (-0.4 percent); non-food (-0.3 percent); food (-0.2 percent) and non-store/ repair (-0.2 percent). By contrast, sales rose for automotive fuel (1.5 percent) and non-specialised (2.0 percent). Year-on-year, retail sales climbed 3.1 percent, the same as in the previous month and well below market consensus of 3.7 percent. In the three months to October, retail trade grew 0.2 percent compared with the previous three-month period, the weakest gain since the three months to April 2018.

UK Retail Sales Unchanged in September
UK retail trade showed no growth in September 2019, following an upwardly revised 0.3 percent fall in the previous month and matching market expectations. Sales dropped for fuel (-2 percent); non-store retailing (-1.6 percent); non-specialised (-0.3 percent) and other stores (-0.6 percent). Meanwhile, sales went up for household goods (2 percent); textile, clothing & footwear (1 percent); and food (0.6 percent). Year-on-year, retail sales advanced 3.1 percent in September, after a 2.6 percent increase in August, but below forecasts of 3.2 percent. Considering the third quarter as a whole, retail trade growth was at 0.6 percent.

UK Retail Sales Fall on Online Shopping
UK retail sales dropped 0.2 from a month earlier in August 2019, following an upwardly revised 0.4 percent growth in July and compared to market forecasts of a flat reading. Non-store retailing, predominantly online sales, plunged 3.2 percent, the biggest decline since August 2015. In addition, textile, clothing & footwear sales edged down 0.1 percent. In contrast, sales rose for household goods (2 percent), fuel (0.3 percent), and food (0.2 percent). Year-on-year, retail trade growth eased to 2.7 percent in August from 3.4 percent in July, also missing market forecasts of 2.9 percent.

UK Retail Sales Rise Unexpectedly in July
UK retail sales rose 0.2 from a month earlier in July 2019, following a downwardly revised 0.9 percent jump in June and beating market expectations of a 0.2 percent decline. Non-store retailing grew 6.9 percent and sales at department stores advanced 1.6 percent, following six consecutive months of decline. Year-on-year, retail trade growth eased to 3.3 percent in July from 3.8 percent in June, also beating market forecasts of 2.6 percent.

UK Retail Sales Rise Unexpectedly
Retail sales in the United Kingdom increased 1 percent from a month earlier in June 2019, following an upwardly revised 0.6 percent drop in May and easily beating market forecasts of a 0.3 percent decline. Non-food stores provided the largest contribution to the growth (1.7 percent vs -0.2 percent in May) boosted by sales at other stores (3.2 percent vs 1.4 percent), household goods stores (1.9 percent vs 2.4 percent) and textile, clothing and footwear stores (1.2 percent vs -3.8 percent). In addition, automotive fuel trade jumped 2.1 percent (vs -2.5 percent in May), while food sales edged up 0.2 percent (vs -0.5 percent in May). Year-on-year, retail trade growth accelerated to 3.8 percent in June from 2.2 percent in the previous month, also above market expectations of 2.6 percent.

United Kingdom Retail Sales MoM
In the United Kingdom, the Retail sales report provides an aggregated measure of sales of retail goods and services over a specific time period. In the United Kingdom, Retail sales are seasonal, volatile and relatively important to the overall economy.

United Kingdom Consumer Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Consumer Confidence -11.00 -14.00 10.00 -39.00 points [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.60 -0.80 3.00 -3.60 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 0.90 0.80 9.00 -3.90 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 341829.00 338155.00 341829.00 67920.00 GBP Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 351816.00 353688.00 353688.00 65381.00 GBP Million [+]
Personal Savings 5.50 6.10 15.20 -0.90 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 1.75 1.75 18.00 1.25 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Fuel -0.80 -0.80 3.30 -3.60 percent [+]
Cbi Distributive Trades 0.00 -3.00 72.00 -55.00 Net Balance [+]
Consumer Credit 563.00 1339.00 2244.00 -1175.00 GBP Million [+]
Households Debt To GDP 84.00 83.60 94.90 28.80 percent of GDP [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.67 1.62 2.22 0.92 USD/Liter [+]
Consumer Confidence Current Conditions -25.00 -20.00 7.00 -82.00 [+]
Consumer Confidence Economic Expectations -23.00 -21.00 20.00 -52.00 [+]
Consumer Confidence Financial Expectations 0.00 4.00 15.00 -18.00 [+]
Consumer Confidence Major Purchases Expectations 1.00 9.00 31.00 -43.00 [+]