Retail sales in the United Kingdom fell 0.6% mom in December 2019, following an upwardly revised 0.8% drop in November and compared to market expectations of a 0.5% rise. It marks the fifth straight month of no growth in retail sales, the longest period since records began in 1996. Main declines were seen in sales at clothing, footwear and textiles stores (-2%); department stores (-1.8%); food (-1.3%, the biggest fall since December 2016); and household goods stores (-0.1%). Year-on-year, retail sales went up 0.9%, higher than a downwardly revised 0.8% in November but below forecasts of 2.6%. Considering Q4, retail sales declined 1%, the worst performance since Q1 2017. Considering full 2019, retail sales rose 3.4%, the most in 3 years. Retail Sales MoM in the United Kingdom averaged 0.22 percent from 1996 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 3 percent in February of 2010 and a record low of -3.60 percent in January of 2010. source: Office for National Statistics
Retail Sales MoM in the United Kingdom is expected to be 0.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in the United Kingdom to stand at 0.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.