Retail trade in the UK rose 1 percent from a month earlier in January 2019, reversing a downwardly revised 0.7 percent drop in December and easily beating market expectations of a 0.2 percent gain. Food stores was the largest contributor towards the increase seen in January, followed by non-store retailing and non-food stores. By contrast, fuel sales fell. Compared with a year ago, retail sales advanced 4.2 percent in January, the biggest annual rise since December 2016. Retail Sales MoM in the United Kingdom averaged 0.22 percent from 1996 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.90 percent in February of 2010 and a record low of -3.50 percent in June of 2008.
Retail Sales MoM in the United Kingdom is expected to be -0.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in the United Kingdom to stand at -0.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.