Retail trade in the UK fell 0.9 percent from a month earlier in December 2018, after a downwardly revised 1.3 percent advance in November and compared to market expectations of a 0.8 percent decline. It was the steepest decrease in retail trade since May 2017 as non-food sales went down 2.3 percent, in particular household goods (-2.3 percent) and other stores (-6.3 percent) Meanwhile, food trade increased 0.2 percent and fuel sales rose 2.6 percent. Considering the fourth quarter as a whole, retail sales fell 0.2 percent from the previous period. Annual retail growth slowed to 3 percent in December from 3.4 percent in the previous month. Retail Sales MoM in the United Kingdom averaged 0.22 percent from 1996 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 2.90 percent in February of 2010 and a record low of -3.50 percent in June of 2008.
Retail Sales MoM in the United Kingdom is expected to be -0.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in the United Kingdom to stand at -0.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.