The annual inflation rate in the United Kingdom rose to 1.9 percent in February 2019 from 1.8 percent in the previous month and above market expectations of 1.8 percent. Prices went up further mainly due to food, alcohol and tobacco, and recreational and cultural goods. Inflation Rate in the United Kingdom averaged 2.58 percent from 1989 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 8.50 percent in April of 1991 and a record low of -0.10 percent in April of 2015.

Inflation Rate in the United Kingdom is expected to be 1.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Inflation Rate in the United Kingdom to stand at 2.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Inflation Rate is projected to trend around 2.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United Kingdom Inflation Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-12-19 09:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY 2.3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3%
2019-01-16 09:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY 2.1% 2.3% 2.1% 2.2%
2019-02-13 09:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY 1.8% 2.1% 1.9% 2%
2019-03-20 09:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
2019-04-17 08:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY 1.9% 1.7%
2019-05-22 08:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY
2019-06-19 08:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY



UK February Inflation Rate Above Forecasts at 1.9%

The annual inflation rate in the United Kingdom rose to 1.9 percent in February 2019 from 1.8 percent in the previous month and above market expectations of 1.8 percent. Prices went up further mainly due to food, alcohol and tobacco, and recreational and cultural goods.

Year-on-year, prices increased at a faster pace for food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.1 percent compared to 0.9 percent in January); housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (1.2 percent compared to 1.1 percent); recreation and culture (3.1 percent compared to 2.9 percent); and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (5.1 percent compared to 4.2 percent). Meanwhile, cost slowed for transport (3.1 percent compared to 3.2 percent); and furniture, household equipment and maintenance (0.3 percent compared to 1.0 percent). Additionally, prices dropped further for clothing and footwear (-2.0 percent compared to -1.3 percent) and inflation was steady for restaurants and hotels (2.6 percent, the same as in January) and miscellaneous goods and services (0.2 percent).

The consumer prices index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) was at 1.8 percent in February, unchanged from the prior month.

The annual core inflation rate, which excludes prices of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, advanced by 1.8 percent, easing from a 1.9 percent gain in January and slightly below market consensus of 1.9 percent.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.5 percent, rebounding from a 0.8 percent fall in the previous month and in line with forecasts. It was the highest monthly inflation rate since August last year, as prices rebounded for transport (0.4 percent compared to -1.2 percent in January); clothing and footwear (1.0 percent compared to -4.3 percent); and furniture and household equipment (2.0 percent compared to -2.1 percent). Also, cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased further (0.4 percent compared to 0.1 percent).



ONS | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com
3/20/2019 10:00:50 AM



United Kingdom Prices Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Inflation Rate 1.90 1.80 8.50 -0.10 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50 -0.80 3.37 -0.94 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 106.80 106.30 107.10 48.40 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 106.81 106.32 107.14 48.40 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 106.90 106.30 107.20 72.90 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.80 1.90 3.70 -0.10 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 104.64 104.23 104.64 4.24 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.20 2.10 27.80 -1.90 percent [+]
Food Inflation 1.10 0.90 13.00 -3.30 percent [+]
Inflation Expectations 3.20 3.00 4.40 1.50 percent [+]
Producer Prices 114.90 114.80 115.20 8.10 Index Points [+]
Core Producer Prices 113.80 113.70 113.80 89.80 Index Points [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 104.30 104.20 105.80 31.70 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 110.40 109.90 113.30 40.40 Index Points [+]


United Kingdom Inflation Rate

In the United Kingdom, the most important categories in the consumer price index are Transport (16 percent of the total weight) and Recreation and Culture (15 percent). Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels accounts for 13 percent; Restaurants and Hotels for 12 percent and Food and Non-alcoholic Beverages for 10 percent. The index also includes: Miscellaneous Goods and Services (9 percent); Clothing and Footwear (7 percent); Furniture, Household Equipment and Maintenance (6 percent). Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco; Health, Communication and Education account for remaining 11 percent of total weight. This page provides - United Kingdom Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. United Kingdom Inflation Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on March of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
1.90 1.80 8.50 -0.10 1989 - 2019 percent Monthly




Country Last Previous
Argentina 50.70 Feb/19
Australia 1.80 Dec/18
Brazil 3.89 Feb/19
Canada 1.50 Feb/19
China 1.50 Feb/19
Euro Area 1.50 Feb/19
France 1.30 Feb/19
Germany 1.50 Feb/19
India 2.57 Feb/19
Indonesia 2.57 Feb/19
Italy 1.00 Feb/19
Japan 0.20 Feb/19
Mexico 3.94 Feb/19
Netherlands 2.60 Feb/19
Russia 5.20 Feb/19
Saudi Arabia -2.20 Feb/19
Singapore 0.40 Jan/19
South Africa 4.10 Feb/19
South Korea 0.50 Feb/19
Spain 1.10 Feb/19
Switzerland 0.60 Feb/19
Turkey 19.67 Feb/19
United Kingdom 1.90 Feb/19
United States 1.50 Feb/19


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