The OBR has lowered its UK growth forecast for this year to 1.2 percent on Wednesday from 1.6 percent in last October’s budget, due to uncertainty surrounding Brexit negotiations and slowing global growth. Still, the OBR's projection for 2020 was unchanged at 1.4 percent; while that for 2021 is now seen at 1.6 percent, above previous estimates of 1.4 percent. Latest quarterly data showed the UK economy expanded 1.3 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2018, down from a revised 1.6 percent in the previous period and slightly below market expectations of 1.4 percent. It has not been weaker since the second quarter of 2012 and continues its relatively subdued performance over the last year. Considering 2018 full year, UK GDP increased by 1.4 percent, the weakest it has been since 2009. GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United Kingdom averaged 2.45 percent from 1956 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 9.70 percent in the first quarter of 1973 and a record low of -6.10 percent in the first quarter of 2009.

GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United Kingdom is expected to be 1.10 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United Kingdom to stand at 1.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom GDP Annual Growth Rate is projected to trend around 1.70 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United Kingdom GDP Annual Growth Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-09-28 08:30 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY Final 1.2% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3%
2018-11-09 09:30 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel 1.5% 1.2% 1.5% 1.5%
2018-12-21 09:30 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY Final 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5%
2019-02-11 09:30 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel 1.3% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3%
2019-03-29 09:30 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY Final 1.6% 1.3% 1.3%
2019-05-10 08:30 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel 1.1%
2019-06-28 08:30 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY Final 1.1%



UK Q4 GDP Annual Growth Below Forecasts

The UK economy expanded 1.3 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2018, down from a revised 1.6 percent in the previous period and slightly below market expectations of 1.4 percent. It has not been weaker since the second quarter of 2012 and continues its relatively subdued performance over the last year.

On the expenditure side, household expenditure rose 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter (vs 1.8 percent in Q3); and government spending advanced 0.8 percent (vs -0.5 percent in Q3). By contrast, fixed investment dropped 1.4 percent (vs -0.3 percent in Q3) as business investment slumped by 3.7 percent, the largest fall since the first quarter of 2010.

Exports declined 0.9 percent, easing from a 1.7 percent drop in Q3; while imports surged 1.7 percent, reversing a 0.1 percent decrease the previous period. As a result, the trade deficit widened to £7.097 billion from £3.225 billion in Q4 2017.

On the production side, the service industries expanded 1.9 percent (vs 1.8 percent in Q3), as output rose for: distribution, hotels and restaurants (3.4 percent vs 3.3 percent); transport storage and communications (3 percent vs 4 percent); business services and finance (1.8 percent vs 1.7 percent); and government and other services (0.6 percent vs unchanged). Industrial production contracted 1 percent (vs 0.7 percent in Q3), as output fell for: manufacturing (-1.5 percent vs 0.9 percent); utilities (-1.7 percent vs -0.5 percent); and water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (-1.6 percent vs -1.2 percent). Mining & quarrying output jumped 5.9 percent, after a 2.6 percent growth in the previous period. Construction expansion eased to 0.9 percent from 1.5 percent in Q3.

Considering 2018 full year, UK GDP increased by 1.4 percent, the weakest it has been since 2009. Household consumption and government spending both contributed positively to GDP growth. There was also a positive contribution of gross capital formation in 2018, although this reflects movements in inventories and valuables, as gross fixed capital formation was flat last year. It was the first time that there had been no increase in capital investment since 2009, in which the UK was in the midst of the effects of the financial crisis. Having provided a boost to GDP growth in 2017, net trade fell in 2018 – a possible reflection of the waning effects of sterling’s depreciation and a slowing in momentum in the global economy.


ONS | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
2/11/2019 10:18:59 AM



United Kingdom GDP Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.60 5.00 -2.70 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.30 1.60 9.70 -6.10 percent [+]
GDP 2622.43 2650.85 3074.36 72.33 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 511175.00 510289.00 511175.00 111480.00 GBP Million [+]
Gross National Product 521840.00 520008.00 521840.00 4755.00 GBP Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 85462.00 85884.00 86673.00 13572.00 GBP Million [+]
GDP per capita 42514.49 42039.74 42514.49 13827.45 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 39753.24 39309.33 39753.24 26454.41 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 2875.00 2845.00 3074.00 2214.00 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Construction 28470.00 28547.00 28547.00 19264.00 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 45190.00 45620.00 46560.00 40088.00 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Mining 4665.00 4734.00 10332.00 3984.00 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 20832.00 20826.00 24234.00 20573.00 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Services 365436.00 363839.00 365436.00 178666.00 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Transport 19855.00 19610.00 19874.00 10071.00 GBP Million [+]


United Kingdom GDP Annual Growth Rate

The United Kingdom is the sixth largest economy in the world and the second largest in Europe after Germany. The Services sector is the most important and accounts for 79 percent to total GDP. The biggest segments within Services are: government, education and health (19 percent of total GDP); real estate (12 percent); professional, scientific and technical activities and administrative and support services (12 percent); wholesale and retail trade (11 percent); and financial and insurance (8 percent). Industry accounts for 21 percent of the GDP and the largest segments within this sector are: manufacturing (10 percent of total GDP) and construction (6 percent). The Agriculture sector accounts for only 1 percent of GDP. This page provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom GDP Annual Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United Kingdom GDP Annual Growth Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on March of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
1.30 1.60 9.70 -6.10 1956 - 2018 percent Quarterly




Country Last Previous
India 6.60 Dec/18
China 6.40 Dec/18
Indonesia 5.18 Dec/18
South Korea 3.10 Dec/18
United States 3.10 Dec/18
Saudi Arabia 2.50 Sep/18
Spain 2.40 Dec/18
Australia 2.30 Dec/18
Netherlands 2.00 Dec/18
Singapore 1.90 Dec/18
Mexico 1.70 Dec/18
Canada 1.60 Dec/18
Russia 1.50 Sep/18
Switzerland 1.40 Dec/18
United Kingdom 1.30 Dec/18
Brazil 1.10 Dec/18
Euro Area 1.10 Dec/18
South Africa 1.10 Dec/18
France 0.90 Dec/18
Germany 0.60 Dec/18
Japan 0.30 Dec/18
Italy 0.00 Dec/18
Turkey -3.00 Dec/18
Argentina -3.50 Sep/18


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