The UK economy grew by 0.5 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2019, accelerating from a 0.2 percent expansion in the previous period and matching market expectations, a preliminary estimate showed. Private consumption, government spending and gross capital formation contributed positively, while net trade contributed negatively to GDP growth. GDP Growth Rate in the United Kingdom averaged 0.60 percent from 1955 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 5 percent in the first quarter of 1973 and a record low of -2.70 percent in the first quarter of 1974.

GDP Growth Rate in the United Kingdom is expected to be 0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Growth Rate in the United Kingdom to stand at 0.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate is projected to trend around 0.60 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-12-21 09:30 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6%
2019-02-11 09:30 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3%
2019-03-29 09:30 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2%
2019-05-10 08:30 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4%
2019-06-28 08:30 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final 0.2% 0.5% 0.5%
2019-08-09 08:30 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel 0.3%
2019-09-30 08:30 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final 0.3%



UK GDP Growth Accelerates to 0.5% in Q1

The UK economy grew by 0.5 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2019, accelerating from a 0.2 percent expansion in the previous period and matching market expectations, a preliminary estimate showed. Private consumption, government spending and gross capital formation contributed positively, while net trade contributed negatively to GDP growth.

Household consumption growth accelerated to 0.7 percent in the first three months of 2019 from 0.3 percent in the previous quarter. However, external evidence points towards continued weakness in consumer demand, as "uncertainty about Brexit and the wider economy weighed on spending" according to the latest Bank of England Agents’ Summary of Business Conditions, while the GfK Consumer Confidence index remained unchanged at negative 13 in March 2019, below its long-run average. Government expenditure increased by 1.4 percent, following growth of 1.3 percent in Q4 2018, boosted by spending on a number of areas including health and other functions of central government, such as general public services and economic affairs.

Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) increased by 2.1 percent in the first three months of 2019, rebounding from a 0.6 percent drop in Q4, mainly reflecting the 8.1 percent increase in general government investment due to increases across a number of central government departments. Business investment grew by 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2019, after four consecutive quarters of decline, driven by higher investment in IT equipment and other machinery and equipment. There was also an increase of £5.2 billion in stocks being held by UK companies in the most recent quarter.

The UK trade deficit widened to £17.51 billion, the widest deficit in more than 50 years. Exports were flat, while import volumes increased by 6.8 percent, largely a reflection of the volume of imports of unspecified goods, which includes non-monetary gold (NMG). Trade in goods exports grew by 4.5 percent, reflecting increases in machinery and transport equipment and miscellaneous manufactures, while trade in services exports fell by an offsetting 5.0 percent due to falls in telecommunications, computer and information technology, intellectual property and other business services. The rise in imports reflects a 11 percent increase in trade in goods imports, partially offset by a 4.4 percent fall in trade in services imports.

On the production side, industrial output increased by 1.4 percent in the first quarter, rebounding from a 0.8 percent contraction in Q4, within which manufacturing output increased by 2.2 percent (vs -0.7 percent in Q4). Services output growth slowed to 0.3 percent from 0.5 percent, while construction output increased by 1 percent, compared to a 0.5 percent fall in Q4. Output of the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector fell by 1.8 percent (vs 0.6 percent in Q4), providing the only negative contribution to growth.


ONS | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
5/10/2019 3:26:16 PM



United Kingdom GDP Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.20 5.00 -2.70 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.80 1.40 9.70 -6.10 percent [+]
GDP 2622.43 2650.85 3074.36 72.33 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 514019.00 511482.00 514019.00 111480.00 GBP Million [+]
Gross National Product 527584.00 525092.00 527584.00 4755.00 GBP Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 87495.00 85462.00 87495.00 13572.00 GBP Million [+]
GDP per capita 42514.49 42039.74 42514.49 13827.45 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 39753.24 39309.33 39753.24 26454.41 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 2832.00 2884.00 3074.00 2214.00 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Construction 28576.00 28286.00 28576.00 19264.00 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 46254.00 45256.00 46560.00 40088.00 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Mining 4883.00 4789.00 10332.00 3984.00 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 20967.00 20942.00 24234.00 20573.00 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Services 367030.00 365834.00 367030.00 178666.00 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Transport 19930.00 20043.00 20043.00 10071.00 GBP Million [+]


United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate

The services sector is the most important and account for 79 percent of United Kingdom's GDP. The biggest segments within services are: government, education and health (19 percent of total GDP); real estate (12 percent); professional, scientific and technical activities and administrative and support services (12 percent); wholesale and retail trade (11 percent); and financial and insurance (8 percent). Industry accounts for 21 percent of the GDP and the largest segments within this sector are: manufacturing (10 percent of total GDP) and construction (6 percent). The Agriculture sector accounts for only 1 percent of GDP. Composition of the GDP on the expenditure side: household consumption (65 percent), government expenditure (20 percent) and gross fixed capital formation (17 percent). Exports of goods and services account for 28 percent of GDP while imports account for 30 percent, subtracting 2 percent from GDP. This page provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on May of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.50 0.20 5.00 -2.70 1955 - 2019 percent Quarterly
SA




Country Last Previous
Singapore 3.80 Mar/19
United States 3.20 Mar/19
India 1.60 Dec/18
China 1.40 Mar/19
South Africa 1.40 Dec/18
Saudi Arabia 1.07 Dec/18
Russia 0.80 Dec/18
Spain 0.70 Mar/19
Japan 0.50 Mar/19
Netherlands 0.50 Mar/19
United Kingdom 0.50 Mar/19
Euro Area 0.40 Mar/19
Germany 0.40 Mar/19
France 0.30 Mar/19
Australia 0.20 Dec/18
Italy 0.20 Mar/19
Switzerland 0.20 Dec/18
Brazil 0.10 Dec/18
Canada 0.10 Dec/18
Mexico -0.20 Mar/19
South Korea -0.30 Mar/19
Indonesia -0.52 Mar/19
Argentina -1.20 Dec/18
Turkey -2.40 Dec/18


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