The British economy grew by 0.2 percent on quarter in the three months to December 2018, easing from a 0.6 percent expansion in the previous period and matching market expectations, a preliminary estimate showed. Private consumption and government consumption were the main driver of growth, while gross capital formation and net trade contributed negatively. GDP Growth Rate in the United Kingdom averaged 0.60 percent from 1955 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 5 percent in the first quarter of 1973 and a record low of -2.70 percent in the first quarter of 1974.

GDP Growth Rate in the United Kingdom is expected to be 0.10 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Growth Rate in the United Kingdom to stand at 0.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate
Forecast Data Chart
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-09-28 08:30 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4%
2018-11-09 09:30 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.7%
2018-12-21 09:30 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6%
2019-02-11 09:30 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3%
2019-03-29 09:30 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final 0.6% 0.2% 0.2%
2019-05-10 08:30 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel 0.1%
2019-06-28 08:30 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final 0.1%

UK GDP Growth Slows to 0.2% in Q4

The UK economy grew by 0.2 percent on quarter in the three months to December 2018, easing from a 0.6 percent expansion in the previous period and matching market expectations, a preliminary estimate showed.

Household consumption rose by 0.4 percent in Q4, the same pace as in Q3 and broadly in line with the subdued quarterly growth rate experienced over 2017 and 2018. The relatively muted growth in household consumption was also noted in the latest Bank of England Agents’ Summary of Business Conditions, which noted that “uncertainty related to Brexit and subdued housing market activity weighed on demand”. It also reported that there had been evidence that Black Friday sales had failed to meet expectations, though some of this may have reflected that less spending had been brought forward from December. The GfK Consumer Confidence figures in December found that consumers were much less confident at the end of the year, with its reading at its lowest for more than five years. Government consumption advanced by 1.4 percent in Q4 (vs -0.3 percent in Q3), primarily reflecting an increase across general public services and defence spending.

By contrast, gross fixed capital formation fell by 0.5 percent in the final three months of 2018, compared to 0.6 percent growth in Q3. There were continued falls in investment in transport equipment in Q4, although these estimates can be volatile. Early estimates of business investment show it fell by 1.4 percent in the final quarter of the year. This is the fourth consecutive quarter in which such capital expenditure has fallen, the first such instance since 2009. In the latest Inflation Report, the Bank of England observe that this weakness appears to “primarily reflect Brexit and associated uncertainty”. In addition, net trade made a negative contribution to GDP growth in the last three months of 2018, as the 0.9 percent rise in exports (vs 0.2 percent in Q3) was more than offset by the 1.3 percent increase in imports (vs unchanged in Q3). This included a 0.9 percent fall in exports of goods amid a slowdown in the export of manufactured goods. This is said to have reflected “a combination of a waning boost from sterling’s 2016 depreciation and weaker demand for diesel cars, rail and marine goods”.

On the production side, there has been a slight easing in services output growth to 0.4 percent (vs 0.5 percent in Q2), following a relatively strong performance throughout the summer months. Production output fell by 1.1 percent (vs 0.6 percent in Q3), its largest decline since Q4 2012, including a 0.9 percent fall in manufacturing output on the back of steep falls in cars and steel products output. Following two consecutive quarters of growth, construction output fell by 0.3 percent in Q4.

Compared with the same quarter in the previous year, the economy expanded by 1.3 percent. It has not been weaker since Q2 2012 and continues its relatively subdued performance over the last year. Considering 2018 full year, UK GDP increased by 1.4 percent, the weakest it has been since 2009.

ONS | Joana Ferreira |
2/11/2019 10:26:19 AM

United Kingdom GDP Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.60 5.00 -2.70 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.30 1.60 9.70 -6.10 percent [+]
GDP 2622.43 2650.85 3074.36 72.33 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 511175.00 510289.00 511175.00 111480.00 GBP Million [+]
Gross National Product 521840.00 520008.00 521840.00 4755.00 GBP Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 85462.00 85884.00 86673.00 13572.00 GBP Million [+]
GDP per capita 42514.49 42039.74 42514.49 13827.45 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 39753.24 39309.33 39753.24 26454.41 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 2875.00 2845.00 3074.00 2214.00 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Construction 28470.00 28547.00 28547.00 19264.00 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 45190.00 45620.00 46560.00 40088.00 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Mining 4665.00 4734.00 10332.00 3984.00 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 20832.00 20826.00 24234.00 20573.00 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Services 365436.00 363839.00 365436.00 178666.00 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Transport 19855.00 19610.00 19874.00 10071.00 GBP Million [+]

United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate

The services sector is the most important and account for 79 percent of United Kingdom's GDP. The biggest segments within services are: government, education and health (19 percent of total GDP); real estate (12 percent); professional, scientific and technical activities and administrative and support services (12 percent); wholesale and retail trade (11 percent); and financial and insurance (8 percent). Industry accounts for 21 percent of the GDP and the largest segments within this sector are: manufacturing (10 percent of total GDP) and construction (6 percent). The Agriculture sector accounts for only 1 percent of GDP. Composition of the GDP on the expenditure side: household consumption (65 percent), government expenditure (20 percent) and gross fixed capital formation (17 percent). Exports of goods and services account for 28 percent of GDP while imports account for 30 percent, subtracting 2 percent from GDP. This page provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on March of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.20 0.60 5.00 -2.70 1955 - 2018 percent Quarterly

Country Last Previous
United States 2.60 Dec/18
Saudi Arabia 1.60 Sep/18
China 1.50 Dec/18
India 1.50 Sep/18
Singapore 1.40 Dec/18
South Africa 1.40 Dec/18
South Korea 1.00 Dec/18
Spain 0.70 Dec/18
Japan 0.50 Dec/18
Netherlands 0.50 Dec/18
France 0.30 Dec/18
Russia 0.30 Sep/18
Australia 0.20 Dec/18
Euro Area 0.20 Dec/18
Mexico 0.20 Dec/18
Switzerland 0.20 Dec/18
United Kingdom 0.20 Dec/18
Brazil 0.10 Dec/18
Canada 0.10 Dec/18
Germany 0.00 Dec/18
Italy -0.10 Dec/18
Argentina -1.20 Dec/18
Indonesia -1.69 Dec/18
Turkey -2.40 Dec/18