Markets Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Currency 1.29 1.26 1.25 1.24 1.23 1.22
Stock Market (points) 6855.99 6622 6551 6482 6414 6278
Government Bond 10Y (%) 1.31 1.23 1.28 1.32 1.37 1.46
Overview Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.60 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.50 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.10 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.8
Inflation Rate (%) 2.10 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 2
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.20 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5
Interest Rate (%) 0.75 1 1.25 1.25 1.5 2
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -2904.00 -2300 -1900 -2300 -300 -400
Current Account (GBP Million) -26522.00 -20400 -20470 -17700 -24600 -22800
Current Account to GDP (%) -4.10 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2.8
Government Debt to GDP (%) 85.30 83.8 83.8 83.8 83.8 82.5
Government Budget (% of GDP) -2.30 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.4
Business Confidence (Index Points) -16.00 -12 1 5 1 2
Manufacturing PMI 54.20 52.3 54.4 54.2 54 51
Services PMI (Index Points) 51.20 48 52 54.5 55.2 54.1
Consumer Confidence (Index Points) -14.00 -20 -8 -7 -6 -6
Retail Sales MoM (%) 1.40 -0.2 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.5
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 19 19 19
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45
GDP Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.60 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.50 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5
GDP (USD Billion) 2622.43 3060 3060 3060 3060 3170
GDP Constant Prices (GBP Million) 510013.00 507187 509295 512563 518173 525946
Gross National Product (GBP Million) 521840.00 517773 522436 524449 530189 538142
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GBP Million) 85843.00 86546 85816 86272 87216 88525
GDP per capita (USD) 42514.49 43200 43200 43200 43200 43800
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 39753.24 40700 40700 40700 40700 41100
GDP From Agriculture (GBP Million) 2916.00 2923 2922 2931 2963 3007
GDP From Construction (GBP Million) 28555.00 28155 28293 28983 29012 29447
GDP From Manufacturing (GBP Million) 45795.00 45992 45813 46024 46528 47226
GDP From Mining (GBP Million) 4635.00 4588 4634 4705 4709 4780
GDP From Public Administration (GBP Million) 20827.00 21021 21094 21139 21160 21478
GDP From Services (GBP Million) 363657.00 361385 363494 365475 369476 375018
GDP From Transport (GBP Million) 19509.00 19249 19460 19607 19821 20118
Labour Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.10 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.8
Employed Persons (Thousand) 32476.00 32580 32620 32710 32850 33700
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 992.60 951 955 964 975 1015
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 8508.00 8420 8400 8420 8430 8190
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 23968.00 24160 24220 24290 24420 25510
Employment Rate (%) 75.70 75.2 75.1 75 74.8 74.6
Claimant Count Change (Thousand) 21.90 5 7 11 7 6
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 79.00 79.9 79.9 80.2 80.5 81
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 1.00 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 11.40 11.3 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.9
Labour Costs (Index Points) 104.80 106 107 108 108 110
Productivity (Index Points) 101.40 103 104 105 106 108
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 848.00 820 819 814 805 792
Wages (GBP/Week) 528.00 524 526 529 532 539
Wages in Manufacturing (GBP/Week) 607.00 605 607 609 611 619
Wage Growth (%) 3.30 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8
Minimum Wages (GBP/Hour) 8.21 7.83 8.21 8.21 8.21 8.5
Population (Million) 66.19 66.36 66.36 66.36 66.36 66.98
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65.5 65.5 65.5 65.5 66
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65.5 65.5 65.5 65.5 66
Living Wage Family (GBP/Month) 1300.00 1440 1440 1440 1440 1520
Living Wage Individual (GBP/Month) 895.00 1290 1290 1290 1290 1370
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 32.20 32.2 32.3 32.3 32.3 32.3
Employment Change (Thousand) 79.00 100 85 -82 120 110
Wages Low Skilled (GBP/Month) 1320.00 1450 1450 1450 1450 1550
Wages High Skilled (GBP/Month) 2330.00 2410 2410 2410 2410 2490
Prices Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Inflation Rate (%) 2.10 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 2
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.20 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5
Consumer Price Index CPI (Index Points) 107.10 107 108 109 109 111
Harmonised Consumer Prices (Index Points) 106.97 107 108 109 109 111
Core Consumer Prices (Index Points) 107.20 107 108 109 125 133
Core Inflation Rate (%) 1.90 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.2
GDP Deflator (Index Points) 104.50 106 107 108 109 112
Producer Prices Change (%) 2.50 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.5
Food Inflation (%) 0.70 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.2 2
Inflation Expectations (%) 3.20 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2
Producer Prices (Index Points) 114.90 115 117 117 127 134
CPI Housing Utilities (Index Points) 105.80 105 106 107 108 110
CPI Transportation (Index Points) 111.30 109 113 114 113 115
Core Producer Prices (Index Points) 113.40 114 115 115 116 119
Money Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Interest Rate (%) 0.75 1 1.25 1.25 1.5 2
Money Supply M0 (GBP Million) 81832.00 98100 104200 106900 110700 122400
Money Supply M1 (GBP Million) 1775222.00 2041000 2111000 2181000 2255400 2510800
Interbank Rate (%) 0.93 1.16 1.41 1.41 1.66 1.66
Money Supply M2 (GBP Million) 2412143.00 2651000 2746000 2856000 2913800 3129100
Money Supply M3 (GBP Million) 2879102.00 3124000 3184000 3224000 3250000 3420000
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 176576.56 175000 179000 185000 189000 205000
Banks Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 3772480.00 4250000 4280000 4320000 4350000 4510000
Central Bank Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 590821.00 625000 636000 645000 662000 689200
Loans to Private Sector (GBP Million) 2438704.00 2550000 2580000 2630000 2690000 2810000
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 0.50 0.75 0.75 0.75 1.25 1.75
Lending Rate (%) 1.00 1 1 1 1 1
Private Debt to GDP (%) 229.40 225 225 225 225 221
Trade Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -2904.00 -2300 -1900 -2300 -300 -400
Current Account (GBP Million) -26522.00 -20400 -20470 -17700 -24600 -22800
Current Account to GDP (%) -4.10 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2.8
Imports (GBP Million) 56856.00 57100 57800 58500 59100 59500
Exports (GBP Million) 53952.00 55400 55900 56200 56500 57700
External Debt (GBP Million) 6301189.00 6583000 6655000 6669000 6686000 6811000
Capital Flows (GBP Million) 33427.00 13600 16500 16500 38200 36900
Foreign Direct Investment (GBP Million) 8525.00 36200 22500 -9700 15600 15900
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 310.30 310 310 310 310 310
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 842.00 800 800 800 800 750
Tourism Revenues (GBP Million) 2008.00 1870 2600 2700 2250 2490
Tourist Arrivals (Thousand) 3234.00 3220 4010 3490 2990 3040
Government Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Government Debt to GDP (%) 85.30 83.8 83.8 83.8 83.8 82.5
Government Budget (% of GDP) -2.30 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.4
Government Budget Value (GBP Million) -3181.00 5100 -4400 -2200 1900 2100
Government Spending (GBP Million) 91629.00 93411 93149 93003 93095 94491
Government Spending to GDP (%) 41.10 41.2 41.2 41.2 41.2 41.1
Government Debt (GBP Million) -6345.00 -1240 -3210 -3200 -2840 -2460
Asylum Applications (persons) 2925.00 2980 2850 2900 2510 2210
Government Revenues (GBP Million) 56563.00 64450 57420 58900 59870 61870
Taxes Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 19 19 19
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45
Social Security Rate (%) 25.80 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 13.80 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 12.00 12 12 12 12 12
Business Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Business Confidence (Index Points) -16.00 -12 1 5 1 2
Manufacturing PMI 54.20 52.3 54.4 54.2 54 51
Services PMI (Index Points) 51.20 48 52 54.5 55.2 54.1
Industrial Production (%) -1.50 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2
Industrial Production Mom (%) -0.40 0.3 -0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5
Manufacturing Production (%) -1.10 3 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.3
Capacity Utilization (%) 80.20 83.2 83 82.9 82.9 82.7
New Orders (GBP Million) 11075.00 15620 15780 15820 15960 16480
Factory Orders (Net Balance) 8.00 2 2 1 -5 -2
Bankruptcies (Companies) 4308.00 4500 4900 4800 4500 4600
Corporate Profits (GBP Million) 114178.00 115000 116000 116000 117000 121000
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -67.50 -76 -48 -20 -4 12
Car Production (Units) 129030.00 164200 162500 165000 128000 137000
Car Registrations 144089.00 571000 267000 485000 183000 196000
Small Business Sentiment -18.00 -2 5 10 11 10
Leading Economic Index (%) 0.30 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5
Private Investment (%) -1.10 -1 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5
Mining Production (%) -2.30 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.2 2
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 455.00 680 640 640 770 850
Composite Pmi 51.40 51.5 53.4 54.1 52.4 52.8
Electricity Production (Gigawatt-hour) 25086.00 27100 25100 26000 30100 30200
Consumer Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Consumer Confidence (Index Points) -14.00 -20 -8 -7 -6 -6
Retail Sales MoM (%) 1.40 -0.2 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.5
Retail Sales YoY (%) 3.60 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.9 2.7
Consumer Spending (GBP Million) 336079.00 334309 335947 337759 341456 346578
Disposable Personal Income (GBP Million) 340827.00 338000 340500 342200 345800 361400
Personal Savings (%) 4.30 4.7 4.9 5.1 6.2 7.9
Bank Lending Rate (%) 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 86.30 87 87 87 87 85
Consumer Credit (GBP Million) 924.00 1720 1790 1850 1910 2130
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.55 1.46 1.43 1.39 1.36 1.36
Housing Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Housing Starts (units) 41190.00 43220 43400 45100 41420 44750
Construction Output (%) 3.00 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2
Housing Index (Index Points) 743.50 762 769 775 785 795
Mortgage Approvals (Thousand) 63.73 70.1 75.5 79.6 85.4 97.6
Mortgage Applications (Units) 39403.00 44900 45400 48900 49200 52600
Home Ownership Rate (%) 63.40 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62
Construction Orders (%) -30.70 2.5 4.5 3.6 2.9 2.5
Construction Pmi 52.80 50.8 53.6 53.2 53.4 52.9


UK GDP growth is expected to slow further in 2018 as public spending cuts and Brexit-related uncertainty weigh on the economy. Still, the unemployment rate is expected to remain close to its equilibrium rate of around 4.5 percent in the near term although wage growth is likely to remain low, resulting in falling real wages. Inflation is forecast to fall towards the Bank of England's 2 percent target until the end of the year, easing the squeeze on households' finances, and house price inflation is seen to average just over 3 percent. In addition, business investment and exports are likely to be supported by the pickup in global growth. Interest rates are set to rise slowly. This page has economic forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy.