The Confederation for British Industry's monthly factory orders balance declined five points from a month earlier to -15 in June 2019, its lowest level since October 2016 and below market forecasts of -12. Stocks of finished goods fell from a ten-year high in May (+12 vs +25 in May), mostly due to the motor trades sector, while export orders improved slightly (-12 vs -16). Meantime, output growth outlook for the next three months remained unchanged (+3, the same as in May) while domestic price expectations increased (+4 vs -1). Factory Orders in the United Kingdom averaged -18.12 Net Balance from 1977 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 21 Net Balance in May of 1988 and a record low of -79 Net Balance in October of 1980.
Factory Orders in the United Kingdom is expected to be -6.00 Net Balance by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Factory Orders in the United Kingdom to stand at -7.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom CBI Industrial Trends Orders is projected to trend around -4.00 Net Balance in 2020, according to our econometric models.