The GfK consumer confidence index in the UK edged up to -13 in February 2019 from a five-year low of -14 in the previous month and above market expectations of -15, as post-Brexit headwinds persist, with employment and wages aiding confidence in February. Households' assessment of their personal finances for the prior and next twelve months remained unchanged at 0 and +1, respectively, while their outlook on the economy over the last 12 months increased two points to -33 and for the next 12 months edged up 1 points to -38. Consumers were also more willing to make major purchases (+5 vs +2). "Although bumping along in negative territory, the Overall Index Score is not showing any sign of making the dramatic drop seen after the June 2016 Brexit Referendum or in the early days of the last financial downturn,” Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director at GfK, said. Consumer Confidence in the United Kingdom averaged -9.01 Index Points from 1981 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 10 Index Points in June of 1987 and a record low of -39 Index Points in July of 2008.
Consumer Confidence in the United Kingdom is expected to be -12.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Consumer Confidence in the United Kingdom to stand at -12.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Consumer Confidence is projected to trend around -2.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.