The CBI Business Optimism Indicator for the UK increased to -13 in the second quarter of 2019 from -23 in the previous three-month period. It was the highest reading since the third quarter of 2018, mainly due to the Brexit delay. Sentiment regarding export prospects for the year ahead fell, but to a lesser extent than in the previous quarter. However, the proportion of firms citing political/economic conditions abroad as a factor likely to limit export orders in the next three months was at its highest since January 1983. The three months to April saw an unprecedented acceleration in the growth of stocks held by the manufacturing sector. Stocks of raw materials, work in progress, and finished goods all grew at their fastest (respective) paces on record. Looking ahead, though, manufacturers expect stocks to fall across the board in the next quarter. Business Confidence in the United Kingdom averaged -3.54 Index Points from 1958 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 55 Index Points in the third quarter of 1959 and a record low of -75 Index Points in the first quarter of 1974.
Business Confidence in the United Kingdom is expected to be -12.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in the United Kingdom to stand at -6.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Business Confidence is projected to trend around 2.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.