The National Bank of Ukraine lowered its benchmark interest rate by 200bps to 13.5 percent on December 12th 2019, surprising markets who expected a 25bps reduction. It was the fifth rate cut this year, bringing borrowing cost to its lowest since November 2017 and in line with central bank expectations of lowering interest rates up to 8 percent. Policymakers noted that inflationary pressures declined faster than expected due to the rapid appreciation of the hryvnia. In November, annual inflation fell to 5.1%, slightly above the medium-term target of 5%, set by the NBU in 2015. Interest Rate in Ukraine averaged 38.36 percent from 1992 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 300 percent in October of 1994 and a record low of 6.50 percent in August of 2013. source: National Bank of Ukraine
Interest Rate in Ukraine is expected to be 13.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in Ukraine to stand at 11.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Ukraine Interest Rate is projected to trend around 8.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.