The economy of Uganda advanced 2.7% from a year earlier in Q3 2019, below an upwardly revised 6.9% growth in the previous period. It was the slowest expansion since Q4 2016, as services rose much less (1.3% vs 3.4% in Q2), amid contractions in trade & repairs (-6.6% vs -3.9%); transportation & storage (-4.9% vs 0.5%); accommodation & food services (-2.1% vs 4.9%); information & communication (-4% vs -4.4%); finance & insurance (-3% vs 8%) and real estate (-1.7% vs 5.5%). At the same time, agriculture showed no growth (vs 2.6% in Q2), as declines in cash crops (-6.6% vs 15.2%); food crops (-2.7% vs -4.1%) and forestry (-5.1% vs -2.7%) offset increases in fishing (47.5% vs 43.2%) and livestock output (7.3% vs 7.7%). In contrast, the industrial sector continued to grow solidly (9.5% vs 8.7%), boosted by manufacturing (8.9% vs 5.2%); construction (6.7% vs 8.5%) and mining (39% vs 62%). On a quarterly basis, the GDP shrank 0.7% compared to a 2.3% advance in the previous quarter. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Uganda averaged 5.39 percent from 2009 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 11.70 percent in the second quarter of 2009 and a record low of -8.10 percent in the third quarter of 2014.
GDP Annual Growth Rate in Uganda is expected to be 4.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Annual Growth Rate in Uganda to stand at 5.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Uganda GDP Annual Growth Rate is projected to trend around 6.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.