The economy of Uganda advanced 6.6% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2018, after a downwardly revised 6.2% growth in the previous period. It is the fastest expansion since Q1 2018, mainly driven by services (8.4% vs 8.0% in Q3), namely administrative & support service (16.5% vs 12.5%); finance & insurance (14.6% vs 6.1%); arts, entertainment & recreation (12.9% vs 14.6%) and heath & social work (11.4% vs 11.6%). Also, output quickened in the agricultural sector (4.5% vs 3.1%), boosted by fishing (13.3% vs 10.5%); forestry (7.8% vs 2.2%); cash crops (6.4% vs 4.2%) and food crops (3.6% vs 3.2%). Conversely, the industrial sector lost steam (3.5% vs 6.5%), as output slowed in construction (4.2% vs 9.3%) and it plunged in mining (-8.5% vs 7.5%). On a quarterly basis, the economy grew 1.2 percent, after expanding 2.2 percent in the third quarter. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Uganda averaged 5.59 percent from 2009 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 11.70 percent in the second quarter of 2009 and a record low of 1.10 percent in the second quarter of 2012.
GDP Annual Growth Rate in Uganda is expected to be 5.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Annual Growth Rate in Uganda to stand at 5.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Uganda GDP Annual Growth Rate is projected to trend around 6.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.