Turkey’s retail trade fell 9.2 percent from a year earlier in December 2018, following a downwardly revised 6.0 percent drop in the previous month, marking the fourth straight month of decline and the steepest since the series began in 2006. Sharp falls were recorded in sales of automotive fuel (-9.5 percent vs -6.8 percent in November); food, drinks & tobacco (-2.7 percent vs 1.4 percent); and non-food products (-12.6 percent vs -9.4 percent), in particular computers, books, telecommunication equipment (-21.7 percent vs -19.0 percent), electronics goods & furniture (-19.0 percent vs -18.0 percent), and medical goods & cosmetics (-0.4 percent vs 0.9 percent). On the other hand, sales rose for: trade via mail orders & internet (16.8 percent vs 44.4 percent) and textiles, clothing & footwear (1.4 percent vs 4.2 percent). On a monthly basis, retail sales went down 0.6 percent in December. Retail Sales YoY in Turkey averaged 6.37 percent from 2006 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 24.70 percent in December of 2010 and a record low of -9.20 percent in December of 2018.
Retail Sales YoY in Turkey is expected to be 0.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Turkey to stand at 3.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Turkey Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.70 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.