Turkey’s retail trade decreased 4.9 percent year-on-year in February 2019, following a downwardly revised 6.3 percent fall in the previous month. Sales dropped less for food, drinks & tobacco (-1 percent from -2.6 percent in January); automotive fuel (-1.7 percent from -2.2 percent); and non-food products (-8.2 percent from -10 percent), namely computers, books, telecommunication equipment (-14.6 percent from -16.8 percent), audio & video equipment, hardware, paints & glass, and electrical household appliances, (-18.7 percent from -23.1 percent), and textiles, clothing & footwear (4.3 percent from 1.9 percent). Meanwhile, sales rose at a softer pace for pharmaceutical goods, and medical goods & cosmetics (2.4 percent from 2.6 percent); and via mail orders & internet (22 percent from 23.9 percent). On a monthly basis, retail sales went up 0.8 percent, after an upwardly revised 1.4 percent gain in January. Retail Sales YoY in Turkey averaged 6.18 percent from 2006 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 24.70 percent in December of 2010 and a record low of -8.80 percent in December of 2018.
Retail Sales YoY in Turkey is expected to be 1.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Turkey to stand at 2.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Turkey Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 3.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.