Markets Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Currency 6.80 6.9 6.97 7.06 7.14 7.3
Stock Market (points) 105520.47 101735 98237 94855 91589 85057
Government Bond 10y (%) 12.24 12.35 12.68 13.01 13.35 14.03

Overview Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.60 -5.2 2.8 1.5 0.9 1.1
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 4.50 -8.9 -6.7 -4.2 3.8 5.1
Unemployment Rate (%) 13.60 15.8 17.4 18 17.5 15.7
Inflation Rate (%) 10.94 8.9 9.1 8.6 7.9 6.8
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.85 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.4
Interest Rate (%) 8.25 7.25 5.5 5.5 5.5 6
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -4563.80 -1700 -700 1000 -1400 100
Current Account (USD Million) -4923.00 -3400 -2200 -1600 -1200 -2200
Current Account to GDP (%) 1.20 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4 -2.8 -2.8
Government Debt to GDP (%) 33.10 40.5 40.5 40.5 45.6 45.6
Government Budget (% of GDP) -2.90 -8.5 -8.5 -8.5 -7.1 -7.1
Business Confidence (points) 76.90 70 75 77 80 85
Manufacturing PMI (points) 33.40 42 47 49.5 50.5 52.5
Consumer Confidence (points) 59.50 54 45 48 52 57
Retail Sales MoM (%) -8.10 2.4 -1.4 1.1 1.5 0.5
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 22.00 22 22 22 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 35.00 35 35 35 35 35

GDP Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.60 -5.2 2.8 1.5 0.9 1.1
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 4.50 -8.9 -6.7 -4.2 3.8 5.1
GDP (USD Billion) 740.00 650 650 650 740 740
GDP Constant Prices (TRY THO) 404437684.10 387988067 434923029 458290356 496560949 481663164
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (TRY THO) 101761743.60 94896593 102405667 116575887 126310825 122521257
GDP per capita (USD) 15026.70 14900 14900 14900 15400 15400
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 25286.60 24700 24700 24700 25100 25100
GDP From Agriculture (TRY THO) 11115755.00 16294288 53773769 24541654 26591062 25793278
GDP From Construction (TRY THO) 24290595.40 26677356 29038469 28395163 30766367 29843316
GDP From Manufacturing (TRY THO) 71562833.00 64513522 66008895 74969915 81230451 78793381
GDP From Public Administration (TRY THO) 48202167.70 42538405 43434431 45352558 49139828 47665538
GDP From Services (TRY THO) 92239191.10 91137409 99441481 109496895 118640686 115081237

Labour Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Unemployment Rate (%) 13.60 15.8 17.4 18 17.5 15.7
Employed Persons (Thousand ) 26753.00 26800 25600 24700 25200 26600
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 4228.00 5190 5490 5510 5410 4750
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 50.70 49.8 47.5 48.2 49.1 52.5
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 3.60 2.9 3.5 4.1 3.6 3.3
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 24.40 24 24.6 25.2 24.7 24.4
Labour Costs (points) 221.43 191 185 189 192 202
Minimum Wages (TRY/Month) 2943.00 2943 2943 2943 3680 3680
Wages in Manufacturing (points) 221.98 195 189 192 196 206
Population (Million) 83.15 82.68 82.68 84.38 83.81 85.57
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58 58 58 58 58
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60
Living Wage Family (TRY/Month) 3190.00 2800 3100 2800 2900 2900
Living Wage Individual (TRY/Month) 1930.00 1750 1750 1750 1820 1820
Wages Low Skilled (TRY/Month) 1380.00 1200 1200 1200 1250 1250
Wages High Skilled (TRY/Month) 2830.00 2750 2750 2750 2820 2820
Employment Rate (%) 44.30 43.5 42.7 43 43.7 45

Prices Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Inflation Rate (%) 10.94 8.9 9.1 8.6 7.9 6.8
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.85 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 454.43 450 466 478 486 511
Core Consumer Prices (points) 379.10 395 410 413 408 444
Core Inflation Rate (%) 9.93 12 12.5 10.8 9.5 7.5
Producer Prices (points) 474.69 501 489 491 504 525
Producer Prices Change (%) 6.71 9.6 8.5 8.1 7.5 6.9
Food Inflation (%) 11.28 11 9.8 9.1 8.4 7.5
Cpi Housing Utilities (points) 495.39 474 510 529 536 565
CPI Transportation (points) 411.33 436 454 462 452 493
Harmonised Consumer Prices (points) 174.17 173 178 183 186 196

Money Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Interest Rate (%) 8.25 7.25 5.5 5.5 5.5 6
Interbank Rate (%) 7.69 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.7
Money Supply M1 (TRY Thousand) 1004162659.00 1115000000 1211000000 1414000000 1495000000 1815000000
Money Supply M2 (TRY Thousand) 2919332512.00 2690000000 2750000000 2797000000 2854000000 2955000000
Banks Balance Sheet (TRY Thousand) 4678225798.00 4882000000 4982000000 4909000000 5109000000 5549000000
Loans to Private Sector (TRY Thousand) 1434780824.00 1228643065 1219577398 1254073554 1489302495 1318031305
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 6.75 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.75
Lending Rate (%) 10.25 10.25 10.25 10.25 10.25 10.75
Private Debt to GDP (%) 163.70 165 165 165 171 171
Cash Reserve Ratio (%) 12.00 12 12 12 12 12
Central Bank Balance Sheet (TRY Thousand) 1004108095.00 950000000 1050000000 1125000000 1542000000 1205000000

Trade Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -4563.80 -1700 -700 1000 -1400 100
Current Account (USD Million) -4923.00 -3400 -2200 -1600 -1200 -2200
Current Account to GDP (%) 1.20 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4 -2.8 -2.8
Imports (USD Million) 13553.33 12500 15100 18400 19200 19100
Exports (USD Million) 8989.54 9200 13400 16700 17800 17200
External Debt (USD Million) 436921.00 445000 451000 465000 475000 495000
Capital Flows (USD Million) 7673.00 -1250 -2000 -1870 -1840 2850
Foreign Direct Investment (USD Million) 418.00 510 290 650 720 690
Tourism Revenues (USD Million) 788.00 2900 5100 2600 2800 6500
Tourist Arrivals 24238.00 1000000 1200000 1700000 1900000 2300000
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 58.00 60 60 60 60 60

Government Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Government Debt to GDP (%) 33.10 40.5 40.5 40.5 45.6 45.6
Government Budget (% of GDP) -2.90 -8.5 -8.5 -8.5 -7.1 -7.1
Government Budget Value (TRY Thousand) -37892546.00 -16700000 -20600000 -46000000 -30700000 -38000000
Government Spending (TRY THO) 61895538.80 56520194 57163537 71731065 77721133 75389349
Government Revenues (TRY Thousand) 65461154.00 71400000 75500000 78800000 62800000 86500000
Government Debt (TRY Million) 1575600.00 1580000 1640000 1710000 1760000 1840000
Fiscal Expenditure (TRY Thousand) 103353700.00 85000000 99000000 125000000 98000000 119500000

Taxes Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 22.00 22 22 22 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 35.00 35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate (%) 18.00 18 18 18 18 18
Social Security Rate (%) 37.50 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 22.50 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 15.00 15 15 15 15 15

Business Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Business Confidence (points) 76.90 70 75 77 80 85
Manufacturing PMI (points) 33.40 42 47 49.5 50.5 52.5
Industrial Production (%) -2.00 -12.7 -3.2 -2.8 2.5 5.4
Industrial Production Mom (%) -7.10 1.5 -2.2 0.9 1 0.5
Manufacturing Production (%) -1.90 -13.6 -2.6 -3 2.8 5.5
Capacity Utilization (%) 62.60 59 71 72 74 75
Bankruptcies (Companies) 427.00 2450 2980 3200 1750 2520
Total Vehicle Sales 26457.00 34800 36200 69000 48000 75000
Car Production (Units) 11164.00 89100 122200 125400 115400 136400
Car Registrations 72072.00 34900 38700 51000 55000 59000
Leading Economic Index (%) 0.09 -8.9 -6.7 -4.2 3.8 5.1
Mining Production (%) -5.60 -12 -6 -4 2 4.4
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 2244.61 2850 2850 2730 2730 2730
Electricity Production (Gigawatt-hour) 25815.00 23000 23000 24700 24700 24700

Consumer Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Consumer Confidence (points) 59.50 54 45 48 52 57
Retail Sales MoM (%) -8.10 2.4 -1.4 1.1 1.5 0.5
Retail Sales YoY (%) -0.20 -12.7 -6.4 2.7 3.6 6.2
Consumer Spending (TRY THO) 241582303.50 229212922 255952492 265625798 287807493 279172713
Consumer Credit (TRY THO) 641157331.00 479552449 516098398 563966366 663209474 592728651
Private Sector Credit (TRY Thousand) 2261017798.00 1896075086 1916907000 1993290339 2346936474 2094948147
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 14.70 19 19 19 25 25
Economic Optimism Index (points) 61.70 71 74 78 81 85
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.88 0.78 0.74 0.7 0.67 0.63

Housing Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Housing Index (points) 125.40 115 112 114 116 122
New Home Sales (Units) 34089.00 11200 29900 61400 55400 68500
Housing Starts (units) 4510.00 1090 1400 6900 4900 9100
Home Ownership Rate (%) 59.10 60 60 60 59.5 59.5
Building Permits 32752.00 2900 13400 45000 32000 65000
Existing Home Sales (Units) 74581.00 25800 75900 99500 69800 111500


This page has economic forecasts for Turkey including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Turkey economy.