This page has economic forecasts for Turkey including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Turkey economy.

Overview	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	0.90	-0.7	0.7	0.5	0.5	1	percent
Unemployment Rate	10.80	11.5	11.7	11.9	12.1	11.9	percent
Inflation Rate	25.24	20	19.1	17.5	16.8	9.5	percent
Interest Rate	24.00	24	22	20	17.75	12.75	percent
Balance of Trade	-1869.47	-3900	-600	-1000	-900	-4000	USD Million
Government Debt to GDP	28.30	32.5	34.2	34.2	34.2	36.6	percent


MARKETS	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Currency	5.46	6.13	6.26	6.39	6.53	7.1
Stock Market	92281.11 points	96783	95059	93364	91709	85353
Government Bond 10y	16.52 percent	17.72	18.13	18.55	18.99	20.83

GDP	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	0.90 percent	-0.7	0.7	0.5	0.5	1
GDP Annual Growth Rate	5.20 percent	-1	-1.8	-1.5	1.2	3.6
GDP	851.10 USD Billion	815	849	849	849	895
GDP Constant Prices	431004380.20 TRY THO	460174033	388105700	424539314	436176433	483891403
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	131111320.50 TRY THO	137307531	112704531	129144651	132684656	144384361
GDP per capita	14933.27 USD	15500	16100	16100	16100	16700
GDP per capita PPP	25129.34 USD	25700	26400	26400	26400	27100
GDP From Agriculture	17144988.00 TRY THO	24652450	10125008	16887813	17350728	25923038
GDP From Construction	33150631.50 TRY THO	33590871	26377792	32653372	33548439	35322145
GDP From Manufacturing	73484897.10 TRY THO	78805033	69342786	72382624	74366716	82866645
GDP From Public Administration	45407124.72 TRY THO	42155899	41485181	44726018	45952010	44328614
GDP From Services	98843234.10 TRY THO	105972298	90494496	97360586	100029353	111434110

LABOUR	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Unemployment Rate	10.80 percent	11.5	11.7	11.9	12.1	11.9
Employed Persons	29265.00 Thousand	27800	28200	28600	27900	30700
Unemployed Persons	3531.00 Thousand	3620	3430	3320	3570	4010
Labor Force Participation Rate	53.20 percent	53.6	53.6	53.8	53.8	54.9
Long Term Unemployment Rate	2.30 percent	2.4	2.4	2.5	2.5	2.8
Youth Unemployment Rate	19.90 percent	21	21.4	21.6	21.8	21.9
Labour Costs	153.67 Index Points	160	165	170	175	215
Wages	2207.00 TRY/Month	2800	3000	3000	3000	3200
Wages in Manufacturing	162.01 Index Points	175	180	185	189	215
Minimum Wages	2029.50 TRY/Month	2030	2280	2280	2235	2530
Population	80.81 Million	82.15	83.42	83.42	83.42	84.34
Retirement Age Women	58.00	58	58	58	58	58
Retirement Age Men	60.00	60	60	60	60	60
Wages Low Skilled	1380.00 TRY/Month	1480	1550	1550	1550	1600
Wages High Skilled	2830.00 TRY/Month	2950	3100	3100	3100	3200
Part Time Employment	2946.30 Thousand	2600	2800	2500	2300	3200
Living Wage Family	3190.00 TRY/Month	2910	2950	2950	2950	3100
Living Wage Individual	1930.00 TRY/Month	1750	1800	1800	1800	1850
Employment Rate	47.40 percent	47.8	47.8	48	48	50.5
Full Time Employment	25328.80 Thousand	24400	23900	24100	25600	27600

PRICES	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Inflation Rate	25.24 percent	20	19.1	17.5	16.8	9.5
Inflation Rate Mom	2.67 percent	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.5
Consumer Price Index CPI	401.27 Index Points	393	401	420	456	495
Core Consumer Prices	347.37 Index Points	339	341	361	393	429
Core Inflation Rate	24.34 percent	19.5	18.1	17.5	16	10.5
GDP Deflator	172.50 Index Points	182	188	194	199	225
Producer Prices	443.78 Index Points	414	432	454	530	542
Producer Prices Change	45.01 percent	30.8	29.5	24.2	20.5	11.5
Export Prices	93.67 Index Points	94	95	96	97	102
Import Prices	92.18 Index Points	98	98	101	102	107
Food Inflation	29.26 percent	22.4	19.5	17.5	16.4	11.5
Cpi Housing Utilities	441.70 Index Points	430	441	450	495	542
CPI Transportation	415.66 Index Points	392	398	427	490	494
Harmonised Consumer Prices	140.91 Index Points	151	154	161	165	190

MONEY	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Interest Rate	24.00 percent	24	22	20	17.75	12.75
Interbank Rate	24.71 percent	27.26	25.26	23.26	21.01	16.01
Money Supply M1	522974069.80 TRY Thousand	551000000	584000000	615000000	645000000	816000000
Money Supply M2	1984450421.40 TRY Thousand	1951000000	2091000000	2151000000	2211000000	2637000000
Money Supply M3	2028975586.30 TRY Thousand	1988000000	2109000000	2179000000	2251000000	2673000000
Foreign Exchange Reserves	128160.30 USD Million	127482	127633	127660	127665	127665
Banks Balance Sheet	4098487430.00 TRY Thousand	4078000000	4451000000	4871000000	5011000000	5509000000
Loans to Private Sector	1362830642.00 TRY Thousand	1383000000	1433000000	1451000000	1486000000	1678000000
Deposit Interest Rate	22.50 percent	22.5	20.5	18.5	16.25	11.25
Private Debt to GDP	170.80 percent	177	179	179	179	182
Lending Rate	25.50 percent	25.5	23.5	21.5	19.25	14.25
Cash Reserve Ratio	12.00 percent	12	12	12	12	12
Central Bank Balance Sheet	801298893.00 TRY Thousand	845000000	898000000	941000000	991000000	1457000000
Foreign Stock Investment	28145.00 USD Million	28255	28273	28204	28195	28197

TRADE	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Balance of Trade	-1869.47 USD Million	-3900	-600	-1000	-900	-4000
Exports	14456.49 USD Million	15600	17200	15500	17600	20400
Imports	16325.96 USD Million	19500	17800	16500	18500	24400
Current Account	1830.00 USD Million	-2500	-1500	-2000	-2900	-3200
Current Account to GDP	-5.50 percent	-5.5	-1.8	-1.8	-1.8	-2.8
External Debt	456961.00 USD Million	495000	505000	522000	544000	591000
Terms of Trade	101.61 Index Points	95.92	96.94	95.05	95.1	95.33
Capital Flows	-1414.00 USD Million	-2850	-3450	2980	3240	4740
Foreign Direct Investment	10900.00 USD Million	9500	10000	10000	10000	11500
Remittances	32.00 USD Million	45	51	51	51	65
Tourism Revenues	3686.00 USD Million	8760	4750	8150	14550	10600
Tourist Arrivals	4792818.00	1850000	2290000	4752000	4264000	2010000
Gold Reserves	246.30 Tonnes	264	273	277	279	281
Terrorism Index	7.52	7.52	7.52	7.52	7.52	7.52
Weapons Sales	244.00 USD Million	282	297	311	325	298
Crude Oil Production	57.00 BBL/D/1K	50	50	50	50	50

GOVERNMENT	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Government Debt to GDP	28.30 percent	32.5	34.2	34.2	34.2	36.6
Government Budget	-1.50 percent of GDP	-2	-1.8	-1.8	-1.8	-1.4
Government Budget Value	-5692472.00 TRY Thousand	-29200000	-16700000	-13500000	-9900000	-29700000
Government Spending	58800570.50 TRY THO	68483884	53851770	57918562	59506177	72013543
Government Revenues	58858842.00 TRY Thousand	55100000	40700000	43700000	39200000	56800000
Government Debt	1121170.00 TRY Million	1510000	1590000	1650000	1770000	2110000
Fiscal Expenditure	64551314.00 TRY Thousand	84300000	57400000	57200000	49100000	86500000
Military Expenditure	19579.90 USD Million	20209	20494	20779	21064	22174
Asylum Applications	7086.00 Persons	9860	9100	5100	11500	6450

BUSINESS	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Business Confidence	87.60 Index Points	85.5	89.1	90.5	95.1	100
Manufacturing PMI	44.30	47.2	49.5	51.9	52.5	53.2
Industrial Production	1.70 percent	4.6	3.8	3.6	3.2	2.5
Industrial Production Mom	-1.10 percent	0.8	0.5	-0.4	0.5	0.5
Manufacturing Production	1.20 percent	4.2	3.6	3.4	2.9	2
Capacity Utilization	75.40 percent	76.5	74.4	72.5	72.9	75
Changes in Inventories	-171657.30 TRY THO	-1780000	-3200000	-3200000	14200000	-1560000
Bankruptcies	954.00 Companies	2420	950	850	1000	2050
Total Vehicle Sales	21571.00	120000	70500	46600	69930	119000
Car Production	131231.00 Units	125800	150500	127900	128200	145400
Car Registrations	45235.00	93000	91900	60800	75980	100000
Leading Economic Index	1.01 percent	2.5	2.2	2.2	2.4	3
Internet Speed	7557.69 KBps	7462	7673	7495	7673	7528
IP Addresses	8079762.00 IP	8070964	8077035	8077370	8081397	8092863
Steel Production	2823.28 Thousand Tonnes	2720	3000	2800	2800	2730
Mining Production	6.13 percent	4.4	3.2	3	2.7	2
Competitiveness Index	61.60 Points	62.1	62.1	62.1	62.1	64.6
Competitiveness Rank	61.00	61	61	61	61	61
Ease of Doing Business	43.00	59	58	58	58	57
Electricity Production	25075.00 Gigawatt-hour	24000	23800	22900	24400	24700
Corruption Index	40.00 Points	40	40	40	40	40
Corruption Rank	81.00	81	81	81	81	81

CONSUMER	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Consumer Confidence	57.30 Index Points	52.7	55.1	57.6	59.5	82.5
Retail Sales MoM	0.40 percent	-0.7	-0.3	0.7	-0.6	0.4
Retail Sales YoY	1.30 percent	1.5	1.7	2.5	3.4	2.7
Consumer Spending	262057700.20 TRY THO	279602176	244853860	258126835	265202393	294012872
Consumer Credit	521319974.00 TRY THO	559000000	568000000	575000000	586000000	651000000
Private Sector Credit	2054464804.00 TRY Thousand	1914000000	1982000000	1993000000	2005000000	2081000000
Economic Optimism Index	67.50 Index points	82	84.1	87.6	91.5	100
Households Debt To GDP	16.60 percent of GDP	18	22	22	22	25
Gasoline Prices	1.27 USD/Liter	1.47	1.48	0.96	0.89	1.56

HOUSING	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Housing Index	268.60 Index points	242	239	235	250	280
New Home Sales	49362.00 units	60700	47900	54600	65100	61400
Building Permits	73270.00	75000	45500	65100	58400	78000
Existing Home Sales	55792.00 units	64100	58200	60700	71400	69500
Housing Starts	8723.00 units	8500	6700	8500	7300	9600
Home Ownership Rate	60.40 percent	61.2	61.5	61.5	61.5	61.7

TAXES	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Corporate Tax Rate	22.00 percent	22	22	22	22	22
Personal Income Tax Rate	35.00 percent	35	35	35	35	35
Sales Tax Rate	18.00 percent	18	18	18	18	18
Social Security Rate	37.50 percent	37.5	37.5	37.5	37.5	37.5
Social Security Rate For Companies	22.50 percent	22.5	22.5	22.5	22.5	22.5
Social Security Rate For Employees	15.00 percent	15	15	15	15	15

CLIMATE	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Precipitation	29.20 mm	59.68	64.21	47.12	47.12	48.36
Temperature	0.97 celsius	7.94	2.46	20.08	16.53	11.92

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Turkey - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

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