This page has economic forecasts for Turkey including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Turkey economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 -0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 1 percent
Unemployment Rate 10.80 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.1 11.9 percent
Inflation Rate 25.24 20 19.1 17.5 16.8 9.5 percent
Interest Rate 24.00 24 22 20 17.75 12.75 percent
Balance of Trade -1869.47 -3900 -600 -1000 -900 -4000 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 28.30 32.5 34.2 34.2 34.2 36.6 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 5.46
6.13 6.26 6.39 6.53 7.1
Stock Market 92281.11
points
96783 95059 93364 91709 85353
Government Bond 10y 16.52
percent
17.72 18.13 18.55 18.99 20.83
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90
percent
-0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.20
percent
-1 -1.8 -1.5 1.2 3.6
GDP 851.10
USD Billion
815 849 849 849 895
GDP Constant Prices 431004380.20
TRY THO
460174033 388105700 424539314 436176433 483891403
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 131111320.50
TRY THO
137307531 112704531 129144651 132684656 144384361
GDP per capita 14933.27
USD
15500 16100 16100 16100 16700
GDP per capita PPP 25129.34
USD
25700 26400 26400 26400 27100
GDP From Agriculture 17144988.00
TRY THO
24652450 10125008 16887813 17350728 25923038
GDP From Construction 33150631.50
TRY THO
33590871 26377792 32653372 33548439 35322145
GDP From Manufacturing 73484897.10
TRY THO
78805033 69342786 72382624 74366716 82866645
GDP From Public Administration 45407124.72
TRY THO
42155899 41485181 44726018 45952010 44328614
GDP From Services 98843234.10
TRY THO
105972298 90494496 97360586 100029353 111434110
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 10.80
percent
11.5 11.7 11.9 12.1 11.9
Employed Persons 29265.00
Thousand
27800 28200 28600 27900 30700
Unemployed Persons 3531.00
Thousand
3620 3430 3320 3570 4010
Labor Force Participation Rate 53.20
percent
53.6 53.6 53.8 53.8 54.9
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.30
percent
2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.8
Youth Unemployment Rate 19.90
percent
21 21.4 21.6 21.8 21.9
Labour Costs 153.67
Index Points
160 165 170 175 215
Wages 2207.00
TRY/Month
2800 3000 3000 3000 3200
Wages in Manufacturing 162.01
Index Points
175 180 185 189 215
Minimum Wages 2029.50
TRY/Month
2030 2280 2280 2235 2530
Population 80.81
Million
82.15 83.42 83.42 83.42 84.34
Retirement Age Women 58.00
58 58 58 58 58
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Wages Low Skilled 1380.00
TRY/Month
1480 1550 1550 1550 1600
Wages High Skilled 2830.00
TRY/Month
2950 3100 3100 3100 3200
Part Time Employment 2946.30
Thousand
2600 2800 2500 2300 3200
Living Wage Family 3190.00
TRY/Month
2910 2950 2950 2950 3100
Living Wage Individual 1930.00
TRY/Month
1750 1800 1800 1800 1850
Employment Rate 47.40
percent
47.8 47.8 48 48 50.5
Full Time Employment 25328.80
Thousand
24400 23900 24100 25600 27600
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 25.24
percent
20 19.1 17.5 16.8 9.5
Inflation Rate Mom 2.67
percent
0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 401.27
Index Points
393 401 420 456 495
Core Consumer Prices 347.37
Index Points
339 341 361 393 429
Core Inflation Rate 24.34
percent
19.5 18.1 17.5 16 10.5
GDP Deflator 172.50
Index Points
182 188 194 199 225
Producer Prices 443.78
Index Points
414 432 454 530 542
Producer Prices Change 45.01
percent
30.8 29.5 24.2 20.5 11.5
Export Prices 93.67
Index Points
94 95 96 97 102
Import Prices 92.18
Index Points
98 98 101 102 107
Food Inflation 29.26
percent
22.4 19.5 17.5 16.4 11.5
Cpi Housing Utilities 441.70
Index Points
430 441 450 495 542
CPI Transportation 415.66
Index Points
392 398 427 490 494
Harmonised Consumer Prices 140.91
Index Points
151 154 161 165 190
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 24.00
percent
24 22 20 17.75 12.75
Interbank Rate 24.71
percent
27.26 25.26 23.26 21.01 16.01
Money Supply M1 522974069.80
TRY Thousand
551000000 584000000 615000000 645000000 816000000
Money Supply M2 1984450421.40
TRY Thousand
1951000000 2091000000 2151000000 2211000000 2637000000
Money Supply M3 2028975586.30
TRY Thousand
1988000000 2109000000 2179000000 2251000000 2673000000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 128160.30
USD Million
127482 127633 127660 127665 127665
Banks Balance Sheet 4098487430.00
TRY Thousand
4078000000 4451000000 4871000000 5011000000 5509000000
Loans to Private Sector 1362830642.00
TRY Thousand
1383000000 1433000000 1451000000 1486000000 1678000000
Deposit Interest Rate 22.50
percent
22.5 20.5 18.5 16.25 11.25
Private Debt to GDP 170.80
percent
177 179 179 179 182
Lending Rate 25.50
percent
25.5 23.5 21.5 19.25 14.25
Cash Reserve Ratio 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
Central Bank Balance Sheet 801298893.00
TRY Thousand
845000000 898000000 941000000 991000000 1457000000
Foreign Stock Investment 28145.00
USD Million
28255 28273 28204 28195 28197
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade -1869.47
USD Million
-3900 -600 -1000 -900 -4000
Exports 14456.49
USD Million
15600 17200 15500 17600 20400
Imports 16325.96
USD Million
19500 17800 16500 18500 24400
Current Account 1830.00
USD Million
-2500 -1500 -2000 -2900 -3200
Current Account to GDP -5.50
percent
-5.5 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -2.8
External Debt 456961.00
USD Million
495000 505000 522000 544000 591000
Terms of Trade 101.61
Index Points
95.92 96.94 95.05 95.1 95.33
Capital Flows -1414.00
USD Million
-2850 -3450 2980 3240 4740
Foreign Direct Investment 10900.00
USD Million
9500 10000 10000 10000 11500
Remittances 32.00
USD Million
45 51 51 51 65
Tourism Revenues 3686.00
USD Million
8760 4750 8150 14550 10600
Tourist Arrivals 4792818.00
1850000 2290000 4752000 4264000 2010000
Gold Reserves 246.30
Tonnes
264 273 277 279 281
Terrorism Index 7.52
7.52 7.52 7.52 7.52 7.52
Weapons Sales 244.00
USD Million
282 297 311 325 298
Crude Oil Production 57.00
BBL/D/1K
50 50 50 50 50
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 28.30
percent
32.5 34.2 34.2 34.2 36.6
Government Budget -1.50
percent of GDP
-2 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.4
Government Budget Value -5692472.00
TRY Thousand
-29200000 -16700000 -13500000 -9900000 -29700000
Government Spending 58800570.50
TRY THO
68483884 53851770 57918562 59506177 72013543
Government Revenues 58858842.00
TRY Thousand
55100000 40700000 43700000 39200000 56800000
Government Debt 1121170.00
TRY Million
1510000 1590000 1650000 1770000 2110000
Fiscal Expenditure 64551314.00
TRY Thousand
84300000 57400000 57200000 49100000 86500000
Military Expenditure 19579.90
USD Million
20209 20494 20779 21064 22174
Asylum Applications 7086.00
Persons
9860 9100 5100 11500 6450
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence 87.60
Index Points
85.5 89.1 90.5 95.1 100
Manufacturing PMI 44.30
47.2 49.5 51.9 52.5 53.2
Industrial Production 1.70
percent
4.6 3.8 3.6 3.2 2.5
Industrial Production Mom -1.10
percent
0.8 0.5 -0.4 0.5 0.5
Manufacturing Production 1.20
percent
4.2 3.6 3.4 2.9 2
Capacity Utilization 75.40
percent
76.5 74.4 72.5 72.9 75
Changes in Inventories -171657.30
TRY THO
-1780000 -3200000 -3200000 14200000 -1560000
Bankruptcies 954.00
Companies
2420 950 850 1000 2050
Total Vehicle Sales 21571.00
120000 70500 46600 69930 119000
Car Production 131231.00
Units
125800 150500 127900 128200 145400
Car Registrations 45235.00
93000 91900 60800 75980 100000
Leading Economic Index 1.01
percent
2.5 2.2 2.2 2.4 3
Internet Speed 7557.69
KBps
7462 7673 7495 7673 7528
IP Addresses 8079762.00
IP
8070964 8077035 8077370 8081397 8092863
Steel Production 2823.28
Thousand Tonnes
2720 3000 2800 2800 2730
Mining Production 6.13
percent
4.4 3.2 3 2.7 2
Competitiveness Index 61.60
Points
62.1 62.1 62.1 62.1 64.6
Competitiveness Rank 61.00
61 61 61 61 61
Ease of Doing Business 43.00
59 58 58 58 57
Electricity Production 25075.00
Gigawatt-hour
24000 23800 22900 24400 24700
Corruption Index 40.00
Points
40 40 40 40 40
Corruption Rank 81.00
81 81 81 81 81
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 57.30
Index Points
52.7 55.1 57.6 59.5 82.5
Retail Sales MoM 0.40
percent
-0.7 -0.3 0.7 -0.6 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 1.30
percent
1.5 1.7 2.5 3.4 2.7
Consumer Spending 262057700.20
TRY THO
279602176 244853860 258126835 265202393 294012872
Consumer Credit 521319974.00
TRY THO
559000000 568000000 575000000 586000000 651000000
Private Sector Credit 2054464804.00
TRY Thousand
1914000000 1982000000 1993000000 2005000000 2081000000
Economic Optimism Index 67.50
Index points
82 84.1 87.6 91.5 100
Households Debt To GDP 16.60
percent of GDP
18 22 22 22 25
Gasoline Prices 1.27
USD/Liter
1.47 1.48 0.96 0.89 1.56
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Housing Index 268.60
Index points
242 239 235 250 280
New Home Sales 49362.00
units
60700 47900 54600 65100 61400
Building Permits 73270.00
75000 45500 65100 58400 78000
Existing Home Sales 55792.00
units
64100 58200 60700 71400 69500
Housing Starts 8723.00
units
8500 6700 8500 7300 9600
Home Ownership Rate 60.40
percent
61.2 61.5 61.5 61.5 61.7
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 22.00
percent
22 22 22 22 22
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Social Security Rate 37.50
percent
37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.50
percent
22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5
Social Security Rate For Employees 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Precipitation 29.20
mm
59.68 64.21 47.12 47.12 48.36
Temperature 0.97
celsius
7.94 2.46 20.08 16.53 11.92



Turkey - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook