Turkey - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Turkey including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Turkey economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 -1.2 -0.7 0.7 0.5 1 percent
Unemployment Rate 10.20 11.1 11.5 11.7 11.9 11.9 percent
Inflation Rate 17.90 19.5 20 19.1 17.5 9.5 percent
Interest Rate 24.00 24 24 22 20 12.75 percent
Balance of Trade -5980.00 -3800 -3900 -600 -1000 -4000 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 28.30 32.5 32.5 34.2 34.2 36.6 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 6.13
6.52 6.64 6.77 6.91 7.46
Stock Market 99292.47
points
91851 90214 88606 87035 81003
Government Bond 10y 17.89
percent
21.33 21.8 22.29 22.78 24.88
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90
percent
-1.2 -0.7 0.7 0.5 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.20
percent
4.4 3.7 3.2 2.5 3.6
GDP 851.10
USD Billion
815 815 849 849 895
GDP Constant Prices 431004380.20
TRY THO
470529106 482020679 407866683 441779490 509360892
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 131111320.50
TRY THO
136704689 143826172 118443051 134389104 151983992
GDP per capita 14933.27
USD
15500 15500 16100 16100 16700
GDP per capita PPP 25129.34
USD
25700 25700 26400 26400 27100
GDP From Agriculture 17144988.00
TRY THO
56707208 25822819 10640538 17573613 27287490
GDP From Construction 33150631.50
TRY THO
37737110 35185590 27720856 33979397 37181316
GDP From Manufacturing 73484897.10
TRY THO
71739239 82546282 72873478 75322020 87228307
GDP From Public Administration 45407124.72
TRY THO
40790377 44157239 43597461 46542303 46661838
Gdp From Services 98843234.10
TRY THO
105067019 111003306 95102158 101314315 117299414
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 10.20
percent
11.1 11.5 11.7 11.9 11.9
Employed Persons 29314.00
Thousand
28500 27800 28200 28600 30700
Unemployed Persons 3315.00
Thousand
3470 3620 3430 3320 4010
Labor Force Participation Rate 53.20
percent
53.4 53.6 53.6 53.8 54.9
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.30
percent
2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.8
Youth Unemployment Rate 19.40
percent
20.5 21 21.4 21.6 21.9
Labour Costs 153.67
Index Points
155 160 165 170 215
Wages 2207.00
TRY/Month
2800 2800 3000 3000 3200
Wages in Manufacturing 162.01
Index Points
169 175 180 185 215
Minimum Wages 2029.50
TRY/Month
2030 2030 2280 2280 2530
Population 80.81
Million
82.15 82.15 83.42 83.42 84.34
Retirement Age Women 58.00
58 58 58 58 58
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Wages Low Skilled 1380.00
TRY/Month
1480 1480 1550 1550 1600
Wages High Skilled 2830.00
TRY/Month
2950 2950 3100 3100 3200
Part Time Employment 3084.10
Thousand
2200 2600 2800 2500 3200
Living Wage Family 2870.00
TRY/Month
2910 2910 2950 2950 3100
Living Wage Individual 1720.00
TRY/Month
1750 1750 1800 1800 1850
Employment Rate 47.40
percent
47.6 47.8 47.8 48 50.5
Full Time Employment 24245.70
Thousand
25100 24400 23900 24100 27600
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 17.90
percent
19.5 20 19.1 17.5 9.5
Inflation Rate Mom 2.30
percent
1.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 367.66
Index Points
375 393 401 420 495
Core Consumer Prices 317.09
Index Points
323 339 341 361 429
Core Inflation Rate 17.22
percent
18.5 19.5 18.1 17.5 10.5
GDP Deflator 172.50
Index Points
177 182 188 194 225
Producer Prices 396.62
Index Points
404 414 432 454 542
Producer Prices Change 32.13
percent
34.2 30.8 29.5 24.2 11.5
Export Prices 95.79
Index Points
96 94 95 96 102
Import Prices 92.74
Index Points
97 98 98 101 107
Food Inflation 19.75
percent
21.5 22.4 19.5 17.5 11.5
Cpi Housing Utilities 401.77
Index Points
416 430 441 450 542
CPI Transportation 384.08
Index Points
367 392 398 427 494
Harmonised Consumer Prices 140.91
Index Points
144 151 154 161 190
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 24.00
percent
24 24 22 20 12.75
Interbank Rate 25.83
percent
25.83 25.83 23.83 21.83 14.58
Money Supply M1 511866340.40
TRY Thousand
534000000 551000000 584000000 615000000 816000000
Money Supply M2 1888599441.00
TRY Thousand
1926000000 1951000000 2091000000 2151000000 2637000000
Money Supply M3 1948789006.20
TRY Thousand
1951000000 1988000000 2109000000 2179000000 2673000000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 128672.90
USD Million
121820 121613 121660 121683 121688
Banks Balance Sheet 3717762670.00
TRY Thousand
3850000000 4078000000 4451000000 4871000000 5509000000
Loans to Private Sector 1256464846.00
TRY Thousand
1321000000 1383000000 1433000000 1451000000 1678000000
Deposit Interest Rate 22.50
percent
22.5 22.5 20.5 18.5 11.25
Private Debt to GDP 170.80
percent
177 177 179 179 182
Lending Rate 24.00
percent
24 24 22 20 12.75
Cash Reserve Ratio 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
Central Bank Balance Sheet 736370209.00
TRY Thousand
786000000 845000000 898000000 941000000 1457000000
Foreign Stock Investment 25246.00
USD Million
27007 28142 28063 27995 28006
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -5980.00
USD Million
-3800 -3900 -600 -1000 -4000
Exports 14077.35
USD Million
14100 15600 17200 15500 20400
Imports 20058.97
USD Million
17900 19500 17800 16500 24400
Current Account -1750.00
USD Million
-5600 -8500 -4500 -2000 -3200
Current Account to GDP -5.50
percent
-4.7 -4.7 -3.6 -3.6 -2.8
External Debt 466657.00
USD Million
485000 495000 505000 522000 591000
Terms of Trade 103.29
Index Points
98.97 95.92 96.94 95.05 95.33
Capital Flows -1232.00
USD Million
-2910 -2850 -3450 2980 4740
Foreign Direct Investment 10900.00
USD Million
9500 9500 10000 10000 11500
Remittances 25.00
USD Million
45 45 51 51 65
Tourism Revenues 2813.00
USD Million
13850 8760 4750 8150 10600
Tourist Arrivals 5671801.00
4150000 1850000 2290000 4752000 2010000
Gold Reserves 236.00
Tonnes
229 225 222 220 217
Terrorism Index 7.52
7.52 7.52 7.52 7.52 7.52
Weapons Sales 244.00
USD Million
286 282 297 311 298
Crude Oil Production 55.00
BBL/D/1K
50 50 50 50 50
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 28.30
percent
32.5 32.5 34.2 34.2 36.6
Government Budget -1.50
percent of GDP
-2 -2 -1.8 -1.8 -1.4
Government Budget Value -3609472.00
TRY Thousand
-7400000 -29200000 -16700000 -13500000 -29700000
Government Spending 58800570.50
TRY THO
56533130 71735139 56593714 60270585 75803956
Government Revenues 68701670.00
TRY Thousand
36200000 55100000 40700000 43700000 56800000
Government Debt 1153454.00
TRY Million
1300000 1510000 1590000 1650000 2110000
Fiscal Expenditure 72311142.00
TRY Thousand
43600000 84300000 57400000 57200000 86500000
Military Expenditure 19579.90
USD Million
19796 20209 20494 20779 22174
Asylum Applications 7086.00
Persons
11900 9860 9100 5100 6450
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 89.60
Index Points
95 85.5 89.1 90.5 100
Manufacturing PMI 46.40
45.2 47.2 49.5 51.9 53.2
Industrial Production 5.60
percent
5.1 4.6 3.8 3.6 2.5
Industrial Production Mom 3.50
percent
0.7 0.8 0.5 -0.4 0.5
Manufacturing Production 5.60
percent
4.9 4.2 3.6 3.4 2
Capacity Utilization 76.20
percent
77.4 76.5 74.4 72.5 75
Changes in Inventories -171657.30
TRY THO
15100000 -1780000 -3200000 -3200000 -1560000
Bankruptcies 1017.00
Companies
1120 2420 950 850 2050
Total Vehicle Sales 34346.00
70200 120000 70500 46600 119000
Car Production 47175.00
Units
130800 125800 150500 127900 145400
Car Registrations 96562.00
76100 93000 91900 60800 100000
Leading Economic Index 3.08
percent
2.5 2.5 2.2 2.2 3
Internet Speed 7557.69
KBps
7680 7462 7673 7495 7528
IP Addresses 8079762.00
IP
8061923 8070964 8077035 8077370 8092863
Steel Production 3266.50
Thousand Tonnes
2900 2720 3000 2800 2730
Mining Production 8.50
percent
7.5 4.4 3.2 3 2
Competitiveness Index 4.42
Points
4.42 4.42 4.45 4.45 4.47
Competitiveness Rank 53.00
53 53 52 52 51
Ease of Doing Business 60.00
59 59 58 58 57
Electricity Production 23912.00
Gigawatt-hour
24100 24000 23800 22900 24700
Corruption Index 40.00
Points
41 41 42 42 43
Corruption Rank 81.00
80 80 79 79 78
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 59.30
Index Points
67.8 52.7 55.1 57.6 82.5
Retail Sales MoM 1.30
percent
-0.4 -0.7 -0.3 0.7 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 3.10
percent
1.9 1.5 1.7 2.5 2.7
Consumer Spending 262057700.20
TRY THO
278492471 292876218 257320961 268609143 309488158
Consumer Credit 531736763.00
TRY THO
541000000 559000000 568000000 575000000 651000000
Private Sector Credit 1954115597.00
TRY Thousand
1846000000 1914000000 1982000000 1993000000 2081000000
Economic Optimism Index 83.90
Index points
80.6 82 84.1 87.6 100
Households Debt To Gdp 16.60
percent of GDP
18 18 22 22 25
Gasoline Prices 1.11
USD/Liter
1.13 1.07 1.01 0.95 0.75
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 268.10
Index points
254 242 239 235 280
New Home Sales 49362.00
units
64500 60700 47900 54600 61400
Building Permits 73270.00
60900 75000 45500 65100 78000
Existing Home Sales 55792.00
units
70400 64100 58200 60700 69500
Housing Starts 8723.00
units
7500 8500 6700 8500 9600
Home Ownership Rate 60.40
percent
61.2 61.2 61.5 61.5 61.7
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 22.00
percent
22 22 22 22 22
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Social Security Rate 37.50
percent
37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.50
percent
22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5
Social Security Rate For Employees 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 29.20
mm
15.42 59.68 64.21 47.12 48.36
Temperature 0.97
celsius
21.35 7.94 2.46 20.08 11.92