Turkey - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Turkey including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Turkey economy.

Overview	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	0.90	-1.2	-0.7	0.7	0.5	1	percent
Unemployment Rate	10.20	11.1	11.5	11.7	11.9	11.9	percent
Inflation Rate	17.90	19.5	20	19.1	17.5	9.5	percent
Interest Rate	24.00	24	24	22	20	12.75	percent
Balance of Trade	-5980.00	-3800	-3900	-600	-1000	-4000	USD Million
Government Debt to GDP	28.30	32.5	32.5	34.2	34.2	36.6	percent


MARKETS	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Currency	6.13	6.52	6.64	6.77	6.91	7.46
Stock Market	99292.47 points	91851	90214	88606	87035	81003
Government Bond 10y	17.89 percent	21.33	21.8	22.29	22.78	24.88

GDP	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	0.90 percent	-1.2	-0.7	0.7	0.5	1
GDP Annual Growth Rate	5.20 percent	4.4	3.7	3.2	2.5	3.6
GDP	851.10 USD Billion	815	815	849	849	895
GDP Constant Prices	431004380.20 TRY THO	470529106	482020679	407866683	441779490	509360892
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	131111320.50 TRY THO	136704689	143826172	118443051	134389104	151983992
GDP per capita	14933.27 USD	15500	15500	16100	16100	16700
GDP per capita PPP	25129.34 USD	25700	25700	26400	26400	27100
GDP From Agriculture	17144988.00 TRY THO	56707208	25822819	10640538	17573613	27287490
GDP From Construction	33150631.50 TRY THO	37737110	35185590	27720856	33979397	37181316
GDP From Manufacturing	73484897.10 TRY THO	71739239	82546282	72873478	75322020	87228307
GDP From Public Administration	45407124.72 TRY THO	40790377	44157239	43597461	46542303	46661838
Gdp From Services	98843234.10 TRY THO	105067019	111003306	95102158	101314315	117299414

LABOUR	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Unemployment Rate	10.20 percent	11.1	11.5	11.7	11.9	11.9
Employed Persons	29314.00 Thousand	28500	27800	28200	28600	30700
Unemployed Persons	3315.00 Thousand	3470	3620	3430	3320	4010
Labor Force Participation Rate	53.20 percent	53.4	53.6	53.6	53.8	54.9
Long Term Unemployment Rate	2.30 percent	2.3	2.4	2.4	2.5	2.8
Youth Unemployment Rate	19.40 percent	20.5	21	21.4	21.6	21.9
Labour Costs	153.67 Index Points	155	160	165	170	215
Wages	2207.00 TRY/Month	2800	2800	3000	3000	3200
Wages in Manufacturing	162.01 Index Points	169	175	180	185	215
Minimum Wages	2029.50 TRY/Month	2030	2030	2280	2280	2530
Population	80.81 Million	82.15	82.15	83.42	83.42	84.34
Retirement Age Women	58.00	58	58	58	58	58
Retirement Age Men	60.00	60	60	60	60	60
Wages Low Skilled	1380.00 TRY/Month	1480	1480	1550	1550	1600
Wages High Skilled	2830.00 TRY/Month	2950	2950	3100	3100	3200
Part Time Employment	3084.10 Thousand	2200	2600	2800	2500	3200
Living Wage Family	2870.00 TRY/Month	2910	2910	2950	2950	3100
Living Wage Individual	1720.00 TRY/Month	1750	1750	1800	1800	1850
Employment Rate	47.40 percent	47.6	47.8	47.8	48	50.5
Full Time Employment	24245.70 Thousand	25100	24400	23900	24100	27600

PRICES	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Inflation Rate	17.90 percent	19.5	20	19.1	17.5	9.5
Inflation Rate Mom	2.30 percent	1.5	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.5
Consumer Price Index CPI	367.66 Index Points	375	393	401	420	495
Core Consumer Prices	317.09 Index Points	323	339	341	361	429
Core Inflation Rate	17.22 percent	18.5	19.5	18.1	17.5	10.5
GDP Deflator	172.50 Index Points	177	182	188	194	225
Producer Prices	396.62 Index Points	404	414	432	454	542
Producer Prices Change	32.13 percent	34.2	30.8	29.5	24.2	11.5
Export Prices	95.79 Index Points	96	94	95	96	102
Import Prices	92.74 Index Points	97	98	98	101	107
Food Inflation	19.75 percent	21.5	22.4	19.5	17.5	11.5
Cpi Housing Utilities	401.77 Index Points	416	430	441	450	542
CPI Transportation	384.08 Index Points	367	392	398	427	494
Harmonised Consumer Prices	140.91 Index Points	144	151	154	161	190

MONEY	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Interest Rate	24.00 percent	24	24	22	20	12.75
Interbank Rate	25.83 percent	25.83	25.83	23.83	21.83	14.58
Money Supply M1	511866340.40 TRY Thousand	534000000	551000000	584000000	615000000	816000000
Money Supply M2	1888599441.00 TRY Thousand	1926000000	1951000000	2091000000	2151000000	2637000000
Money Supply M3	1948789006.20 TRY Thousand	1951000000	1988000000	2109000000	2179000000	2673000000
Foreign Exchange Reserves	128672.90 USD Million	121820	121613	121660	121683	121688
Banks Balance Sheet	3717762670.00 TRY Thousand	3850000000	4078000000	4451000000	4871000000	5509000000
Loans to Private Sector	1256464846.00 TRY Thousand	1321000000	1383000000	1433000000	1451000000	1678000000
Deposit Interest Rate	22.50 percent	22.5	22.5	20.5	18.5	11.25
Private Debt to GDP	170.80 percent	177	177	179	179	182
Lending Rate	24.00 percent	24	24	22	20	12.75
Cash Reserve Ratio	12.00 percent	12	12	12	12	12
Central Bank Balance Sheet	736370209.00 TRY Thousand	786000000	845000000	898000000	941000000	1457000000
Foreign Stock Investment	25246.00 USD Million	27007	28142	28063	27995	28006

TRADE	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Balance of Trade	-5980.00 USD Million	-3800	-3900	-600	-1000	-4000
Exports	14077.35 USD Million	14100	15600	17200	15500	20400
Imports	20058.97 USD Million	17900	19500	17800	16500	24400
Current Account	-1750.00 USD Million	-5600	-8500	-4500	-2000	-3200
Current Account to GDP	-5.50 percent	-4.7	-4.7	-3.6	-3.6	-2.8
External Debt	466657.00 USD Million	485000	495000	505000	522000	591000
Terms of Trade	103.29 Index Points	98.97	95.92	96.94	95.05	95.33
Capital Flows	-1232.00 USD Million	-2910	-2850	-3450	2980	4740
Foreign Direct Investment	10900.00 USD Million	9500	9500	10000	10000	11500
Remittances	25.00 USD Million	45	45	51	51	65
Tourism Revenues	2813.00 USD Million	13850	8760	4750	8150	10600
Tourist Arrivals	5671801.00	4150000	1850000	2290000	4752000	2010000
Gold Reserves	236.00 Tonnes	229	225	222	220	217
Terrorism Index	7.52	7.52	7.52	7.52	7.52	7.52
Weapons Sales	244.00 USD Million	286	282	297	311	298
Crude Oil Production	55.00 BBL/D/1K	50	50	50	50	50

GOVERNMENT	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Government Debt to GDP	28.30 percent	32.5	32.5	34.2	34.2	36.6
Government Budget	-1.50 percent of GDP	-2	-2	-1.8	-1.8	-1.4
Government Budget Value	-3609472.00 TRY Thousand	-7400000	-29200000	-16700000	-13500000	-29700000
Government Spending	58800570.50 TRY THO	56533130	71735139	56593714	60270585	75803956
Government Revenues	68701670.00 TRY Thousand	36200000	55100000	40700000	43700000	56800000
Government Debt	1153454.00 TRY Million	1300000	1510000	1590000	1650000	2110000
Fiscal Expenditure	72311142.00 TRY Thousand	43600000	84300000	57400000	57200000	86500000
Military Expenditure	19579.90 USD Million	19796	20209	20494	20779	22174
Asylum Applications	7086.00 Persons	11900	9860	9100	5100	6450

BUSINESS	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Business Confidence	89.60 Index Points	95	85.5	89.1	90.5	100
Manufacturing PMI	46.40	45.2	47.2	49.5	51.9	53.2
Industrial Production	5.60 percent	5.1	4.6	3.8	3.6	2.5
Industrial Production Mom	3.50 percent	0.7	0.8	0.5	-0.4	0.5
Manufacturing Production	5.60 percent	4.9	4.2	3.6	3.4	2
Capacity Utilization	76.20 percent	77.4	76.5	74.4	72.5	75
Changes in Inventories	-171657.30 TRY THO	15100000	-1780000	-3200000	-3200000	-1560000
Bankruptcies	1017.00 Companies	1120	2420	950	850	2050
Total Vehicle Sales	34346.00	70200	120000	70500	46600	119000
Car Production	47175.00 Units	130800	125800	150500	127900	145400
Car Registrations	96562.00	76100	93000	91900	60800	100000
Leading Economic Index	3.08 percent	2.5	2.5	2.2	2.2	3
Internet Speed	7557.69 KBps	7680	7462	7673	7495	7528
IP Addresses	8079762.00 IP	8061923	8070964	8077035	8077370	8092863
Steel Production	3266.50 Thousand Tonnes	2900	2720	3000	2800	2730
Mining Production	8.50 percent	7.5	4.4	3.2	3	2
Competitiveness Index	4.42 Points	4.42	4.42	4.45	4.45	4.47
Competitiveness Rank	53.00	53	53	52	52	51
Ease of Doing Business	60.00	59	59	58	58	57
Electricity Production	23912.00 Gigawatt-hour	24100	24000	23800	22900	24700
Corruption Index	40.00 Points	41	41	42	42	43
Corruption Rank	81.00	80	80	79	79	78

CONSUMER	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Consumer Confidence	59.30 Index Points	67.8	52.7	55.1	57.6	82.5
Retail Sales MoM	1.30 percent	-0.4	-0.7	-0.3	0.7	0.4
Retail Sales YoY	3.10 percent	1.9	1.5	1.7	2.5	2.7
Consumer Spending	262057700.20 TRY THO	278492471	292876218	257320961	268609143	309488158
Consumer Credit	531736763.00 TRY THO	541000000	559000000	568000000	575000000	651000000
Private Sector Credit	1954115597.00 TRY Thousand	1846000000	1914000000	1982000000	1993000000	2081000000
Economic Optimism Index	83.90 Index points	80.6	82	84.1	87.6	100
Households Debt To Gdp	16.60 percent of GDP	18	18	22	22	25
Gasoline Prices	1.11 USD/Liter	1.13	1.07	1.01	0.95	0.75

HOUSING	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Housing Index	268.10 Index points	254	242	239	235	280
New Home Sales	49362.00 units	64500	60700	47900	54600	61400
Building Permits	73270.00	60900	75000	45500	65100	78000
Existing Home Sales	55792.00 units	70400	64100	58200	60700	69500
Housing Starts	8723.00 units	7500	8500	6700	8500	9600
Home Ownership Rate	60.40 percent	61.2	61.2	61.5	61.5	61.7

TAXES	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Corporate Tax Rate	22.00 percent	22	22	22	22	22
Personal Income Tax Rate	35.00 percent	35	35	35	35	35
Sales Tax Rate	18.00 percent	18	18	18	18	18
Social Security Rate	37.50 percent	37.5	37.5	37.5	37.5	37.5
Social Security Rate For Companies	22.50 percent	22.5	22.5	22.5	22.5	22.5
Social Security Rate For Employees	15.00 percent	15	15	15	15	15

CLIMATE	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Precipitation	29.20 mm	15.42	59.68	64.21	47.12	48.36
Temperature	0.97 celsius	21.35	7.94	2.46	20.08	11.92

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