Tajikistan - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Tajikistan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Tajikistan economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.30 2.3 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.7 percent
Inflation Rate 1.70 6 6.2 6.8 1.1 5.2 percent
Interest Rate 14.00 14 12 12 12 8 percent
Balance of Trade -94.60 -162 -200 -162 -162 -235 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 47.80 40 40 38 38 37 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 9.41
 9.22 9.27 9.32 9.38 9.58
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 7.00
percent		 6.9 6.9 6.4 6.1 6.5
GDP 7.15
USD Billion		 7.6 7.6 8 8 8.3
GDP Constant Prices 12350.10
TJS Million		 45344 65309 13141 13103 73936
GDP per capita 1015.50
USD		 1054 1054 1085 1085 1187
GDP per capita PPP 2896.91
USD		 2968 2968 3015 3015 3185
GDP From Agriculture 22234.00
TJS Million		 23768 23768 23657 23590 26908
GDP From Construction 6091.70
TJS Million		 6512 6512 6482 6463 7372
GDP From Manufacturing 9366.90
TJS Million		 10013 10013 9966 9938 11336
GDP From Services 8870.90
TJS Million		 9483 9483 9439 9412 10736
GDP From Transport 6248.20
TJS Million		 6679 6679 6648 6629 7562
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.30
percent		 2.3 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.7
Unemployed Persons 52.90
Thousand 		53.74 53.7 53.77 53.71 53.72
Employed Persons 2237.50
Thousand 		2238 2238 2238 2238 2238
Wages 1228.10
TJS/Month		 1450 1500 1400 1197 1700
Population 8.90
Million		 9.07 9.12 9.17 9.23 9.76
Wages In Manufacturing 1379.10
TJS/Month		 1340 1460 1450 1371 1600
Retirement Age Men 63.00
 63 63 63 63 63
Retirement Age Women 58.00
 58 58 58 58 58
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.70
percent		 6 6.2 6.8 1.1 5.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.60
Index Points		 106 107 106 102 118
Producer Prices 100.50
Index Points		 102 100 99.5 101 106
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60
percent		 0.5 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.48
Producer Prices Change 2.50
percent		 0.47 3.9 0.51 0.51 2.7
Food Inflation -0.50
percent		 1.2 2 3.5 4 5.5
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 14.00
percent		 14 12 12 12 8
Money Supply M0 10655.42
TJS Thousand		 10860 10925 10942 10946 10946
Money Supply M1 12171.87
TJS Thousand		 12393 12445 12459 12462 12463
Money Supply M2 13839.59
TJS Thousand		 14124 14216 14252 14267 14277
Deposit Interest Rate 4.20
percent		 4.14 4 4.04 4.08 6.53
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -94.60
USD Million		 -162 -200 -162 -162 -235
Exports 97.50
USD Million		 91.85 92 92.14 92.15 110
Imports 192.00
USD Million		 254 292 254 254 345
Current Account -52950.30
USD Thousand		 85760 -19213 -37169 19056 4632
Current Account to GDP 1.80
percent		 -5 -5 -4 -4 -3
Gold Reserves 15.60
Tonnes		 16.12 16.66 17.03 17.36 21.18
Terrorism Index 2.43
 2.95 3.19 3.11 3.03 2.45
Crude Oil Production 0.18
BBL/D/1K		 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17
External Debt 2274.10
USD Million		 2424 2482 2512 2543 2829
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 47.80
percent		 40 40 38 38 37
Government Budget -1.70
percent of GDP		 -2.63 -3.03 -3.28 -3.52 -4.97
Government Revenues 6096.40
TJS Million		 10169 8715 9606 9626 9482
Military Expenditure 79.90
USD Million		 70.44 72.42 71.46 70.49 71.64
Government Budget Value 261.50
TJS Million		 310 219 253 274 250
Fiscal Expenditure 5834.90
TJS Million		 9859 8525 9353 9352 9233
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Industrial Production 11.80
percent		 11.16 10.48 9.96 9.56 8.33
Internet Speed 2588.66
KBps		 1790 2184 2512 2539 2025
IP Addresses 9376.00
IP		 8950 8955 8944 8912 8859
Ease of Doing Business 123.00
 120 119 118 117 107
Corruption Index 21.00
Points		 20 19 20 20 23
Corruption Rank 161.00
 156 157 156 154 149
Competitiveness Index 4.14
Points		 4.1 4.1 4.11 4.11 3.96
Competitiveness Rank 79.00
 75 75 78 79 79
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Retail Sales Yoy 6.40
percent		 11.49 12.69 13.72 14.75 6.97
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent		 18 18 18 18 18
Personal Income Tax Rate 13.00
percent		 13 13 13 13 13
Social Security Rate 26.00
percent		 26 26 26 26 26
Social Security Rate For Companies 25.00
percent		 25 25 25 25 25
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00
percent		 1 1 1 1 1
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 26.18
mm		 3.83 42.04 62.59 43.15 40.68
Temperature -5.95
celsius		 14.72 -1.82 -6.75 12.87 4.11