Tajikistan - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Tajikistan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Tajikistan economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.30 2.3 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.7 percent
Inflation Rate 1.70 6 6.2 6.8 1.1 5.2 percent
Interest Rate 14.00 14 12 12 12 8 percent
Balance of Trade -94.60 -162 -200 -162 -162 -235 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 47.80 40 40 38 38 37 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 9.41
9.22 9.27 9.32 9.38 9.58
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 7.00
percent
6.9 6.9 6.4 6.1 6.5
GDP 7.15
USD Billion
7.6 7.6 8 8 8.3
GDP Constant Prices 12350.10
TJS Million
45344 65309 13141 13103 73936
GDP per capita 1015.50
USD
1054 1054 1085 1085 1187
GDP per capita PPP 2896.91
USD
2968 2968 3015 3015 3185
GDP From Agriculture 22234.00
TJS Million
23768 23768 23657 23590 26908
GDP From Construction 6091.70
TJS Million
6512 6512 6482 6463 7372
GDP From Manufacturing 9366.90
TJS Million
10013 10013 9966 9938 11336
GDP From Services 8870.90
TJS Million
9483 9483 9439 9412 10736
GDP From Transport 6248.20
TJS Million
6679 6679 6648 6629 7562
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.30
percent
2.3 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.7
Unemployed Persons 52.90
Thousand
53.74 53.7 53.77 53.71 53.72
Employed Persons 2237.50
Thousand
2238 2238 2238 2238 2238
Wages 1228.10
TJS/Month
1450 1500 1400 1197 1700
Population 8.90
Million
9.07 9.12 9.17 9.23 9.76
Wages In Manufacturing 1379.10
TJS/Month
1340 1460 1450 1371 1600
Retirement Age Men 63.00
63 63 63 63 63
Retirement Age Women 58.00
58 58 58 58 58
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.70
percent
6 6.2 6.8 1.1 5.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.60
Index Points
106 107 106 102 118
Producer Prices 100.50
Index Points
102 100 99.5 101 106
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60
percent
0.5 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.48
Producer Prices Change 2.50
percent
0.47 3.9 0.51 0.51 2.7
Food Inflation -0.50
percent
1.2 2 3.5 4 5.5
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 14.00
percent
14 12 12 12 8
Money Supply M0 10655.42
TJS Thousand
10860 10925 10942 10946 10946
Money Supply M1 12171.87
TJS Thousand
12393 12445 12459 12462 12463
Money Supply M2 13839.59
TJS Thousand
14124 14216 14252 14267 14277
Deposit Interest Rate 4.20
percent
4.14 4 4.04 4.08 6.53
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -94.60
USD Million
-162 -200 -162 -162 -235
Exports 97.50
USD Million
91.85 92 92.14 92.15 110
Imports 192.00
USD Million
254 292 254 254 345
Current Account -52950.30
USD Thousand
85760 -19213 -37169 19056 4632
Current Account to GDP 1.80
percent
-5 -5 -4 -4 -3
Gold Reserves 15.60
Tonnes
16.12 16.66 17.03 17.36 21.18
Terrorism Index 2.43
2.95 3.19 3.11 3.03 2.45
Crude Oil Production 0.18
BBL/D/1K
0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17
External Debt 2274.10
USD Million
2424 2482 2512 2543 2829
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 47.80
percent
40 40 38 38 37
Government Budget -1.70
percent of GDP
-2.63 -3.03 -3.28 -3.52 -4.97
Government Revenues 6096.40
TJS Million
10169 8715 9606 9626 9482
Military Expenditure 79.90
USD Million
70.44 72.42 71.46 70.49 71.64
Government Budget Value 261.50
TJS Million
310 219 253 274 250
Fiscal Expenditure 5834.90
TJS Million
9859 8525 9353 9352 9233
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Industrial Production 11.80
percent
11.16 10.48 9.96 9.56 8.33
Internet Speed 2588.66
KBps
1790 2184 2512 2539 2025
IP Addresses 9376.00
IP
8950 8955 8944 8912 8859
Ease of Doing Business 123.00
120 119 118 117 107
Corruption Index 21.00
Points
20 19 20 20 23
Corruption Rank 161.00
156 157 156 154 149
Competitiveness Index 4.14
Points
4.1 4.1 4.11 4.11 3.96
Competitiveness Rank 79.00
75 75 78 79 79
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Retail Sales Yoy 6.40
percent
11.49 12.69 13.72 14.75 6.97
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Personal Income Tax Rate 13.00
percent
13 13 13 13 13
Social Security Rate 26.00
percent
26 26 26 26 26
Social Security Rate For Companies 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00
percent
1 1 1 1 1
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 26.18
mm
3.83 42.04 62.59 43.15 40.68
Temperature -5.95
celsius
14.72 -1.82 -6.75 12.87 4.11