Tajikistan - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Tajikistan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Tajikistan economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.30 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.5 percent
Inflation Rate 2.30 6 7.5 6.8 6.2 5.2 percent
Interest Rate 14.00 14 12 12 12 8 percent
Balance of Trade -94.60 -126 -147 -162 -130 -220 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 47.80 50.2 50.2 49.9 49.9 46.8 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 9.41
 9.44 9.47 9.49 9.51 9.6
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 7.20
percent		 6.8 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.3
GDP 7.15
USD Billion		 7.6 7.6 8 8 8.3
GDP Constant Prices 12350.10
TJS Million		 45301 64820 13128 13141 73038
GDP per capita 1015.50
USD		 1054 1054 1085 1085 1187
GDP per capita PPP 2896.91
USD		 2968 2968 3015 3015 3185
GDP From Agriculture 22234.00
TJS Million		 23746 23590 23635 23657 26581
GDP From Construction 6091.70
TJS Million		 6506 6463 6475 6482 7283
GDP From Manufacturing 9366.90
TJS Million		 10004 9938 9957 9966 11198
GDP From Services 8870.90
TJS Million		 9474 9412 9430 9439 10605
GDP From Transport 6248.20
TJS Million		 6673 6629 6642 6648 7470
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.30
percent		 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.5
Unemployed Persons 54.00
Thousand 		53.2 53.7 53.1 52.8 53.2
Employed Persons 2237.50
Thousand 		2238 2239 2242 2241 2245
Wages 1378.50
TJS/Month		 1450 1500 1450 1390 1700
Population 8.90
Million		 9.1 9.1 9.3 9.3 9.5
Wages In Manufacturing 1379.10
TJS/Month		 1340 1460 1470 1490 1600
Retirement Age Men 63.00
 63 63 63 63 63
Retirement Age Women 58.00
 58 58 58 58 58
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.30
percent		 6 7.5 6.8 6.2 5.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.10
Index Points		 106 108 106 107 121
Producer Prices 99.70
Index Points		 105 100 103 104 106
Inflation Rate Mom 1.10
percent		 -0.2 0.4 -0.3 0.5 0.6
Producer Prices Change -0.30
percent		 2.9 3.9 4.1 4.3 2.7
Food Inflation -1.90
percent		 1.2 2 3.5 4 5.5
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 14.00
percent		 14 12 12 12 8
Money Supply M0 11809.67
TJS Thousand		 11200 11400 11700 11900 12900
Money Supply M1 13060.66
TJS Thousand		 12770 12900 13100 13300 13500
Money Supply M2 14747.98
TJS Thousand		 14000 14600 14750 15200 16300
Deposit Interest Rate 4.20
percent		 4 4 3.8 3.8 3.6
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -94.60
USD Million		 -126 -147 -162 -130 -220
Exports 97.50
USD Million		 94 105 78 83 110
Imports 192.00
USD Million		 220 252 240 213 330
Current Account -48804.20
USD Thousand		 -25000 -5200 -17100 -29000 4600
Current Account to GDP 1.80
percent		 -5 -5 -4 -4 -3
Gold Reserves 15.60
Tonnes		 16.1 16.1 16.5 16.4 16.9
Terrorism Index 2.43
 3.1 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.5
Crude Oil Production 0.18
BBL/D/1K		 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18
External Debt 2274.10
USD Million		 2350 2350 2440 2440 2530
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 47.80
percent		 50.2 50.2 49.9 49.9 46.8
Government Budget -1.70
percent of GDP		 -2.6 -2.6 -3.2 -3.2 -1.4
Government Revenues 6096.40
TJS Million		 15000 20000 4600 10000 23000
Military Expenditure 79.90
USD Million		 81 81 83 83 79
Government Budget Value 261.50
TJS Million		 300 150 140 350 520
Fiscal Expenditure 5834.90
TJS Million		 14700 19850 4460 9650 22480
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Industrial Production 11.80
percent		 12.1 12.5 11.8 10.6 8.9
Internet Speed 2588.66
KBps		 2400 2340 2500 2530 2000
IP Addresses 9376.00
IP		 9250 9190 9150 9100 8810
Ease of Doing Business 123.00
 121 121 119 119 107
Corruption Index 21.00
Points		 23 23 25 25 26
Corruption Rank 161.00
 160 160 157 157 149
Competitiveness Index 4.14
Points		 4.14 4.14 4.12 4.12 4.17
Competitiveness Rank 79.00
 79 79 80 80 79
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Retail Sales Yoy 6.40
percent		 7.5 7.5 8.1 8.1 8.7
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent		 18 18 18 18 18
Personal Income Tax Rate 13.00
percent		 13 13 13 13 13
Social Security Rate 26.00
percent		 26 26 26 26 26
Social Security Rate For Companies 25.00
percent		 25 25 25 25 25
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00
percent		 1 1 1 1 1
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 26.18
mm		 3.83 42.04 62.59 43.15 40.68
Temperature -5.95
celsius		 14.72 -1.82 -6.75 12.87 4.11