Retail sales in Taiwan slipped 9.06 percent year-on-year in February of 2019, following an upwardly revised 8.17 percent jump in the prior month. Sales fell mostly for autos, motorcycles and related parts and accessories (-19.84 percent vs -3.47 percent in January); information and communications equipment & electrical household appliances (-17.76 percent vs 5.41 percent); food, beverages & tobacco (-15.76 percent vs 15.34 percent); building materials (-11.16 percent vs 7.64 percent) and fabrics, clothes & clothing accessories (-7.80 percent vs 18.41 percent). On a monthly basis, retail sales slumped 18.95 percent after an upwardly revised 1.32 percent rise in January. Considering the first two months of 2019, retail trade went down 0.28 percent over a year ago. Retail Sales YoY in Taiwan averaged 2.79 percent from 2010 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 22.90 percent in January of 2011 and a record low of -9.06 percent in February of 2019.
Retail Sales YoY in Taiwan is expected to be 3.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Taiwan to stand at 4.80 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Taiwan Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 4.90 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.