Retail sales in Taiwan increased 1.95 percent year-on-year in December of 2018, higher than an upwardly revised 0.6 percent gain in November. Sales rebounded for autos and motorcycles (3.76 percent vs -2.94 percent in November); fabrics and clothes (1.9 percent vs -2.66 percent); and household supplies (2.43 percent vs -2 percent) and increased faster for food, beverages and tobacco (2.79 percent vs 0.93 percent). On the other hand, sales fell for fuel products (-1.55 percent vs 7.65 percent) and information & communications equipment & electrical household appliances (-10.93 percent vs -7.01 percent). On a monthly basis, retail trade rose 3.5 percent. Considering full 2018, retail sales went up 3.17 percent, higher than 1.18 percent in 2017. Retail Sales YoY in Taiwan averaged 2.86 percent from 2010 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 22.90 percent in January of 2011 and a record low of -8.37 percent in February of 2017.
Retail Sales YoY in Taiwan is expected to be 3.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Taiwan to stand at 4.80 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Taiwan Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 4.90 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.