Switzerland’s retail trade fell 1.7 percent year-on-year in May 2019, following a revised 0.8 percent drop in the previous month and worse than market consensus of a 0.4 percent decline. This was the seventh straight month of decrease in retail trade and the steepest fall since September 2018, amid declines in both non-food sales (-0.8 percent vs -1.4 percent in April) and food, beverages & tobacco sales (-2.9 percent vs -0.1 percent). On a monthly basis, retail sales went down 1.3 percent in May, the first monthly decline since January. Retail Sales YoY in Switzerland averaged 1.24 percent from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 6.80 percent in September of 2008 and a record low of -4.20 percent in December of 2016.
Retail Sales YoY in Switzerland is expected to be 0.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Switzerland to stand at 1.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Switzerland Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 1.60 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.