The Swiss consumer confidence index dropped to -10.4 in the fourth quarter of 2019 from -8 in the previous period, the lowest level since the third quarter of 2009. Expectations regarding general economic situation deteriorated sharply to the weakest in more than three years (-19.6 vs -0.9 in Q3), and the index on anticipated unemployment rose to its highest in over two years (48.4 vs 38.6). In contrast, the assessment of the past financial situation continued its positive development of recent quarters (-10.9 vs -12.9) and expectations regarding the anticipated financial situation also improved (-2.8 vs -7.6). In line with these figures, the likelihood of making major purchases has largely remained stable (-8.4 vs -10.8). Consumer Confidence in Switzerland averaged -4.99 Index Points from 1972 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 19.90 Index Points in the fourth quarter of 1972 and a record low of -36.60 Index Points in the first quarter of 1992.

Consumer Confidence in Switzerland is expected to be -10.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Consumer Confidence in Switzerland to stand at -7.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Switzerland Consumer Confidence is projected to trend around -4.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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Switzerland Consumer Confidence

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-10.40 -8.00 19.90 -36.60 1972 - 2019 points Quarterly

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-02-01 06:45 AM Q1 -4 -6 -5 -8
2019-05-03 05:45 AM Q2 -6 -4 -3 -2
2019-08-05 05:45 AM Q3 -8 -9.3 -8 -9
2019-11-04 06:45 AM Q4 -10.4 -8 -10
2020-02-05 06:45 AM Q1 -10.4 -6

News Stream
Swiss Consumer Sentiment Improves in Q3
The Swiss consumer confidence index increased to -8 in the third quarter of 2019 from a revised -9.3 in the previous period and in line with market forecasts. The subdued sentiment is due in particular to households’ budget situation, with both the past (-13 points) and anticipated financial situation (-8 points) being assessed as well below average (average: -6 points and +2 points respectively). Therefore, the likelihood of consumers making major purchases has, unsurprisingly, also remained below average (-11 points; average: -6 points). With regard to the labour market, respondents remained confident overall, although anticipated unemployment has worsened. The relevant sub-index has climbed significantly to 39 points from 31 points, but has stayed below average (48 points).

Swiss Consumer Morale Falls Unexpectedly in Q2
The Swiss consumer confidence index declined unexpectedly to -6 in the second quarter of 2019 from -4 in the previous period and missing market expectations of -3. Consumers' views regarding their own financial situation deteriorated sharply (-4.7 vs -1.1 in Q1) and their expectations on ability to save money were much less positive (12.4 vs 21.3). Meanwhile, households' assessment on the economy in general improved (-2.6 vs -4.6) and that on anticipated unemployment fell slightly (30.7 vs 31.6). The long-term average of the index is -9.

Swiss Q1 Consumer Morale Above Forecasts
The Swiss consumer confidence index rose to -4 in the first quarter of 2019 from -6 in the previous period and slightly above market expectations of -5. Consumers' views on anticipated unemployment fell significantly (31.6 vs 38.3 in Q4), and their expectations regarding their own budget improved sharply (-1.1 vs -4.0). In addition, households were much more confident that they will be able to save money (21.3 vs 9.3). However, the assessment of the economy in general has deteriorated (-4.6 vs 8.8), as consumers expect the growth slowdown to continue.

Switzerland Consumer Confidence
In Switzerland, the consumer confidence survey is conducted every year, in the months of January, April, July and October. Around 1000 households are questioned for State Secretariat for Economic Affairs regarding their subjective evaluation of the economic situation, financial situation of the household in question, inflation, job security etc. Generally consumer confidence is high when the unemployment rate is low and GDP growth is high. Measures of average consumer confidence can be useful indicators of how much consumers are likely to spend.

Switzerland Consumer Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Consumer Confidence -10.40 -8.00 19.90 -36.60 points [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.10 0.70 4.50 -4.30 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 0.00 0.40 6.80 -4.20 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 93646.80 93492.30 93646.80 51789.00 CHF Million [+]
Personal Savings 12.70 12.50 13.90 6.50 percent [+]
Households Debt To GDP 130.90 129.50 130.90 102.30 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 181.53 180.98 181.53 143.50 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 893238.00 891393.00 893238.00 158152.00 CHF Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.66 1.61 2.15 0.78 USD/Liter [+]