Switzerland Business Confidence

The KOF Economic Barometer in Switzerland fell to 93 in November of 2019 from an upwardly revised 94.8 in the previous month and well below market expectations of 95. It is the lowest reading since April of 2015, mainly dragged down by negative signals from hotel and catering activities and from the banking and insurance sector. Indicators regarding foreign demand and other services also declined while indicators for the manufacturing sector remained almost unchanged. The KOF barometer is still well below its long-term average and the outlook for the Swiss economy remains subdued.

The KOF Economic Barometer in Switzerland rose to 94.7 in October 2019 from a downwardly revised 93.1 in the previous month and beating market consensus of 93.9. Banking & insurance sector as well as from accommodation & food service activities improved. Also, indicators regarding foreign demand and other services were slightly less negative than in September, while indicators from the manufacturing sector fell. In the goods producing sectors, the indicators on the number of employees and on barriers to production burden the development. Production is expected to develop somewhat more positively, albeit still below average. Within the manufacturing sector, the changes in the indicators for the metal industry, electrical industry & machinery and vehicle producers are negative while for the wood, glass, stone & earth industries, paper & printing and chemicals, pharmaceuticals & plastics industries improved.

The KOF Economic Barometer in Switzerland fell to 93.2 in September 2019 from a downwardly revised 95.5 in August and missing market expectations of 96.2. It was the lowest reading since April 2015, primarily due to manufacturing and reinforced by negative developments in service industry and the accommodation and food service industry. By contrast, private consumption, foreign demand and construction remained stable relative to the previous month. In the goods producing sector (manufacturing and construction), negative contributions came from order backlogs, the development of production and the overall business situation. By contrast, the assessment of the competitive position and export prospects remained virtually unchanged compared to the previous month. Within manufacturing, the outlook has become more clouded, namely for the metal, wood and chemical industry. In addition, indicators from the machine and vehicle construction sectors also pointed to a negative development.

The KOF Economic Barometer in Switzerland held steady at 97.0 in August 2019, easily beating market expectations of 94.5. Somewhat more favourable signals than before are coming from indicators of foreign demand and domestically from consumer prospects and manufacturing; while accommodation and food service activities, financial, insurance and other services as well as construction tend to point to stagnation or slight deterioration in economic sentiment. In the goods producing sectors (manufacturing and construction), the barometer is strengthened mostly by indicators on order backlog and inventories. The remaining indicators are emitting only negligible signals. Within manufacturing, the outlook has become more favourable especially for machinery, the metal industry, the chemical industry as well as for food and beverages. On the other hand, the outlook has mainly worsened for the paper and the electrical industries.

The KOF Economic Barometer for Switzerland rose 3.3 points to 97.1 in July 2019 from an upwardly revised 93.8 in June, beating market consensus of 93. More favourable signals than before came from manufacturing, other services, accommodation and food service activities, financial and insurance services, and construction. In the goods producing sectors, all the indicators on the competitive situation and the number of employees strengthened. Within manufacturing, the outlook is more positive, namely for the electrical industry and food and beverages. On the other hand, the indicators for demand from abroad have a dampening effect.

The KOF Economic Barometer for Switzerland edged down 0.2 points to 93.6 in June 2019 from a downwardly revised 93.8 in the previous month, missing market expectations of 94.9. While indicators of foreign demand showed a positive trend, the indicators in manufacturing and private consumption pointed in the opposite direction. The negative development in the manufacturing sector was mainly attributable to indicators on the situation of primary products and order backlogs, while the assessment of the competitive situation, the employment situation and the export prospects remained unchanged. There was also a slight weakening in the banking and insurance industry.