Sweden - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Sweden including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Sweden economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 6.50 6 5.8 6.2 6.6 6.5 percent
Inflation Rate 2.10 2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2 percent
Interest Rate -0.50 -0.5 -0.25 -0.25 -0.1 0.5 percent
Balance of Trade -2600.00 1200 -3700 1600 6000 -2000 SEK million
Government Debt to GDP 40.60 38 38 37 37 36 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 8.83
9.02 9.23 9.44 9.65 10.56
Stock Market 1579.40
points
1480 1432 1385 1340 1173
Government Bond 10Y 0.46
percent
0.57 0.68 0.8 0.95 1.88
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70
percent
0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.30
percent
2.7 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.6
GDP 538.04
USD Billion
515 528 540 540 551
GDP Constant Prices 1171984.00
SEK Million
1186225 1192640 1198940 1175175 1254240
Gross National Product 1171746.00
SEK Million
1173069 1273035 1198696 1194886 1338787
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 299133.00
SEK Million
301411 298376 306013 290370 313788
GDP per capita 56935.19
USD
56970 56970 57210 57210 58000
GDP per capita PPP 46949.28
USD
47000 47000 48000 48000 49000
Gdp From Agriculture 12876.00
SEK Million
13040 13088 13172 12946 13764
Gdp From Construction 67091.00
SEK Million
66256 66754 68634 64826 70202
Gdp From Manufacturing 160392.00
SEK Million
160983 163729 164081 159778 172186
Gdp From Mining 5424.00
SEK Million
5533 5577 5549 5538 5865
Gdp From Public Administration 205967.00
SEK Million
212315 212184 210704 211175 223144
Gdp From Services 542161.00
SEK Million
547121 549132 554631 540564 577495
Gdp From Transport 42979.00
SEK Million
43576 43738 43968 43289 45997
Gdp From Utilities 29807.00
SEK Million
30702 30385 30493 30384 31954
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.50
percent
6 5.8 6.2 6.6 6.5
Employed Persons 5101.00
Thousand
5057 5046 5041 5039 5037
Unemployed Persons 352.00
Thousand
354 353 353 353 353
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.20
percent
1.12 1.12 1.11 1.08 1.04
Youth Unemployment Rate 14.90
percent
15.11 14.83 14.65 14.52 14.09
Labour Costs 130.70
Index Points
132 133 134 135 143
Job Vacancies 801.00
Hundred
818 1211 1102 923 1033
Wages 172.00
SEK/Hour
172 173 171 171 180
Wages in Manufacturing 183.60
SEK/Hour
180 182 180 182 190
Population 10.12
Million
10.12 10.12 10.21 10.21 10.32
Retirement Age Women 61.00
61 61 61 61 61
Retirement Age Men 61.00
61 61 61 61 61
Labor Force Participation Rate 73.20
percent
71.05 71.08 71.3 71.29 71.26
Part Time Employment 1132.30
Thousand
1109 1129 1127 1126 1126
Productivity 103.70
Index Points
117 108 105 109 110
Employment Change 0.60
percent
0.44 0.41 0.32 0.33 0.31
Employment Rate 68.50
percent
67.75 67.54 67.44 67.4 67.37
Full Time Employment 3686.80
Thousand
3869 3762 3738 3823 3827
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.10
percent
2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20
percent
0.22 0.16 0.18 0.18 0.18
Harmonised Consumer Prices 105.21
Index Points
106 106 107 108 111
Consumer Price Index CPI 328.62
Index Points
330 332 333 337 348
Core Consumer Prices 215.07
Index Points
216 217 218 220 228
Core Inflation Rate 2.20
percent
2 2 2.2 2.3 2.6
Producer Prices 126.00
Index Points
123 125 126 128 131
Producer Prices Change 6.30
percent
4.1 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.5
Export Prices 123.60
Index Points
126 127 127 127 127
Import Prices 123.20
Index Points
124 123 124 123 123
Food Inflation 2.40
percent
2.48 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45
Inflation Expectations 3.40
percent
2.6 2.5 2.5 3.42 2.2
CPI Housing Utilities 400.71
Index Points
399 401 410 410 419
CPI Transportation 447.79
Index Points
440 447 445 459 467
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate -0.50
percent
-0.5 -0.25 -0.25 -0.1 0.5
Interbank Rate -0.35
percent
-0.35 -0.1 -0.1 0.05 0.65
Money Supply M0 55982.00
SEK Million
55837 56365 55773 56347 56345
Money Supply M3 3321033.00
SEK Million
3389449 3430304 3471488 3512361 3898516
Banks Balance Sheet 13468896.00
SEK Million
13432103 13368658 13480897 13386283 13394099
Foreign Exchange Reserves 550602.00
SEK Million
546067 543426 543754 543793 543779
Loans to Private Sector 1397315.00
SEK Million
1424822 1442873 1457623 1469612 1515047
Deposit Interest Rate -1.25
percent
-1.25 -1 -1 -0.85 -0.25
Private Debt to GDP 263.47
percent
266 267 267 266 268
Money Supply M1 2776227.00
SEK Million
2856190 2904678 2953337 3001825 3470702
Money Supply M2 3221827.00
SEK Million
3300477 3347130 3394092 3441082 3902633
Lending Rate 0.25
percent
0.25 0.5 0.5 0.65 1.25
Loan Growth 6.60
percent
6.32 6.17 6.04 5.92 5.23
Central Bank Balance Sheet 934499.00
SEK Million
943950 949914 949605 950041 950023
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -2600.00
SEK million
1200 -3700 1600 6000 -2000
Exports 124900.00
SEK million
116200 112500 127000 124000 122500
Imports 127500.00
SEK million
115000 116200 125400 118000 124500
Current Account 21.90
SEK Billion
35.46 29.51 25.06 31.48 28.4
Current Account to GDP 3.20
percent
4.1 4.1 3.7 3.7 3.4
External Debt 107643.00
SEK Million
106913 106602 106595 106575 106577
Terms of Trade 100.32
Index Points
102 103 103 103 103
Foreign Direct Investment 22807.00
SEK Million
38831 40199 31810 34907 35651
Capital Flows 116.30
SEK Billion
18.19 8.46 18.15 10.59 14.82
Remittances 16.20
SEK Billion
15.71 16.49 16.34 17.19 16.55
Gold Reserves 125.70
Tonnes
126 126 126 126 126
Terrorism Index 3.76
3.65 3.65 3.64 3.64 3.62
Weapons Sales 83.00
USD Million
229 225 211 196 208
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 40.60
percent
38 38 37 37 36
Government Budget 1.30
percent of GDP
0.5 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.5
Government Budget Value 50631.00
SEK Million
2426 7777 7988 8409 8555
Government Spending 300812.00
SEK Million
308204 308077 307731 306047 323989
Government Spending to GDP 49.10
percent
48.5 48.5 48 48 47.5
Government Revenues 118594.00
SEK Million
83170 85853 86864 87176 87310
Government Debt 1231095.00
SEK Million
1231547 1231534 1231539 1231538 1231538
Fiscal Expenditure 67964.00
SEK Million
80744 78847 78876 78767 78755
Military Expenditure 5470.40
USD Million
5495 5512 5517 5521 5556
Asylum Applications 1290.00
persons
4231 4087 3946 3930 3955
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 108.50
Index Points
109 109 108 110 106
Manufacturing PMI 54.20
55.5 54.8 54.6 54 54
Services Pmi 59.80
Index Points
58.1 56.5 56.2 56 55.5
Industrial Production 3.70
percent
5.2 4.5 3.6 3.2 2.4
Industrial Production Mom 1.80
percent
2.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7
Manufacturing Production 3.80
percent
2.85 2.68 2.65 2.65 2.64
Capacity Utilization 90.60
percent
90.5 90.5 88.29 87.96 90.9
New Orders 109.00
Index Points
112 109 109 109 109
Changes in Inventories 25702.00
SEK Million
16140 -3395 22360 1619 2117
Bankruptcies 712.00
Companies
636 645 641 643 642
Car Registrations 67553.00
40547 52825 40549 46050 43093
Internet Speed 22543.09
KBps
24619 25812 25658 25625 29625
IP Addresses 5500163.00
IP
5497979 5499902 5501915 5503606 5507452
Mining Production 1.60
percent
2.67 3.07 3.34 3.49 3.66
Steel Production 430.26
Thousand Tonnes
392 392 392 392 392
Competitiveness Index 5.52
Points
5.53 5.53 5.51 5.51 5.51
Competitiveness Rank 7.00
6 6 8 8 8
Business Inventories 8183.79
SEK Million
-1445 1127 5443 -1099 1816
Corruption Index 84.00
Points
86 85 85 85 85
Corruption Rank 6.00
5 5 5 5 4
Ease of Doing Business 10.00
7 6 6 6 6
Electricity Production 12929.00
Gigawatt-hour
11752 14651 14022 11860 13375
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 96.80
Index Points
105 103 104 94.85 103
Retail Sales MoM 0.20
percent
0.5 -0.3 0.5 0.24 0.5
Retail Sales YoY 3.10
percent
2.1 2.6 2.5 2.67 2.2
Consumer Spending 515236.00
SEK Million
521207 523756 527086 517579 550807
Disposable Personal Income 523433.00
SEK Million
527969 528217 528166 528177 528175
Personal Savings 15.16
percent
14.44 9.84 15.65 31.47 9.85
Private Sector Credit 6.40
percent
6.11 6 5.92 5.84 5.46
Gasoline Prices 1.70
USD/Liter
1.61 1.52 1.44 1.36 0.76
Household Spending 0.00
percent
0.5 -0.2 1 -0.3 0.3
Households Debt To Gdp 87.70
percent of GDP
88.43 88.71 88.84 89.08 90.07
Households Debt To Income 155.94
percent
157 157 157 157 155
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Construction Output 3.30
percent
2.53 1.69 2.51 2.42 2.35
Housing Index 230.06
Index points
231 230 231 231 231
Housing Starts 12.67
Thousand
13.11 14.15 13.11 14.13 14.11
Home Ownership Rate 65.20
percent
64.76 64.56 64.44 64.33 63.35
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 22.00
percent
22 22 22 22 22
Personal Income Tax Rate 61.85
percent
61.85 61.85 61.75 62 62
Sales Tax Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Social Security Rate 38.42
percent
38.42 38.42 38 38 38
Social Security Rate For Companies 31.42
percent
31.41 31.41 31.41 31.41 31.41
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.00
percent
7 7 7 7 7
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature -3.07
celsius
12.22 -2.4 -6.9 7.14 2.45
Precipitation 65.16
mm
72.1 53.13 37.34 55.91 52.98