Retail sales in Spain rose 0.8 percent year-on-year in January of 2019, following a downwardly revised 0.6 percent increase in the previous month but slightly lower than market expectations of 0.9 percent. It was the highest gain in retail trade since October of 2018, mainly due to a rebound in sales of personal equipment (0.2 percent from -0.4 percent in December). Meanwhile, sales went up at a softer pace for food (0.6 percent from 0.7 percent); personal equipment (3.1 percent from 3.5 percent) and sales fell faster for other goods (-1.3 percent from -1.2 percent). On a monthly basis, retail sales advanced 0.3 percent, recovering from a downwardly revised 0.5 percent drop in December. Retail Sales YoY in Spain averaged -0.04 percent from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 6.80 percent in December of 2003 and a record low of -11.40 percent in September of 2012.
Retail Sales YoY in Spain is expected to be 2.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Spain to stand at 2.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Spain Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.