Spain - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Spain including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Spain economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4 percent
Unemployment Rate 15.30 15.1 15.1 14.9 14.7 13.2 percent
Inflation Rate 2.20 2.3 2 2.3 2.4 2.4 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade -3247700.00 -2400000 -2100000 -1400000 -1500000 -1800000 EUR Thousand
Government Debt to GDP 98.30 95.5 95.5 92.6 92.6 89.4 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1.17
 1.16 1.15 1.15 1.14 1.12
Stock Market 9590.40
points		 9428 9323 9220 9117 8719
Government Bond 10Y 1.51
percent		 1.45 1.5 1.55 1.6 1.82
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60
percent		 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.70
percent		 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.2
GDP 1311.32
USD Billion		 1420 1420 1510 1510 1550
GDP Constant Prices 299267.00
EUR Million		 296114 303612 305772 306150 317739
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 63383.00
EUR Million		 60988 62809 63284 64841 65731
GDP per capita 32405.75
USD		 32900 32900 33600 33600 34100
GDP per capita PPP 34272.36
USD		 34800 34800 35400 35400 35900
GDP From Agriculture 8049.00
EUR Million		 7609 8123 8298 8234 8501
GDP From Construction 16276.00
EUR Million		 15513 16044 16462 16650 16791
GDP From Manufacturing 39353.00
EUR Million		 38543 39911 39775 40258 41768
GDP From Public Administration 49137.00
EUR Million		 49075 50131 50380 50267 52463
GDP From Services 197230.00
EUR Million		 197166 201050 202585 201766 210404
GDP From Transport 63834.00
EUR Million		 63432 64453 64811 65302 67452
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 15.30
percent		 15.1 15.1 14.9 14.7 13.2
Employed Persons 19344.10
Thousand 		19410 19650 19700 19810 20280
Unemployed Persons 3270.09
Thousand 		3000 2890 2750 2670 2500
Unemployment Change 47.05
Thousand 		29.5 -50.8 -38.6 -88.6 -32.1
Part Time Employment 2899.70
Thousand		 2860 2930 2890 2860 2880
Full Time Employment 16444.30
Thousand		 16550 16720 16810 16950 17400
Long Term Unemployment Rate 7.00
percent		 6 5.9 5.5 5.2 4.7
Youth Unemployment Rate 33.40
percent		 34.3 33.8 33.4 32.9 27
Productivity 104.50
Index Points		 113 112 105 108 116
Labour Costs 98.30
Index Points		 97.5 106 99.8 104 112
Job Vacancies 35.43
Thousand		 48.6 42.5 58.2 60.1 51
Wages 1951.81
EUR/Month		 1820 2050 1845 1995 2100
Minimum Wages 858.55
EUR/Month		 859 859 880 880 920
Population 46.66
Million		 46.66 46.66 46.89 46.89 47.21
Retirement Age Women 65.50
 65.5 65.5 65.67 65.67 65.83
Retirement Age Men 65.50
 65.5 65.5 65.67 65.67 65.83
Labor Force Participation Rate 58.80
percent		 60.5 61 61.2 61.5 63
Living Wage Family 1100.00
EUR/Month		 1150 1150 1200 1200 1270
Living Wage Individual 810.00
EUR/Month		 950 950 1080 1080 1150
Wages High Skilled 1980.00
EUR/Month		 2220 2220 2310 2310 2390
Wages Low Skilled 927.00
EUR/Month		 900 900 950 950 990
Employment Change 0.70
percent		 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4
Employment Rate 63.53
percent		 63.4 63.6 63.7 63.8 65
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.20
percent		 2.3 2 2.3 2.4 2.4
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10
percent		 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.5
Harmonised Consumer Prices 103.38
Index Points		 106 108 110 107 121
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.78
Index Points		 104 105 105 107 110
Core Consumer Prices 101.84
Index Points		 102 103 103 104 107
Core Inflation Rate 0.80
percent		 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.9
Producer Prices 104.90
Index Points		 104 105 104 107 110
Producer Prices Change 4.60
percent		 2.6 2.2 2.1 2 2.4
Export Prices 112.80
Index Points		 112 112 114 115 118
Import Prices 112.20
Index Points		 107 108 108 109 114
Food Inflation 2.00
percent		 2.3 2.2 1.9 1.7 2.2
CPI Housing Utilities 107.41
Index Points		 105 108 106 108 113
CPI Transportation 109.11
Index Points		 107 108 108 112 113
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent		 0 0 0 0 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.38
percent		 -0.38 -0.38 -0.38 -0.38 0.37
Money Supply M1 960686.00
EUR Million		 925000 932000 938000 948000 1021000
Money Supply M2 1168097.00
EUR Million		 1330000 1410000 1470000 1540000 1980000
Money Supply M3 1212839.00
EUR Million		 1440000 1510000 1590000 1650000 2120000
Banks Balance Sheet 2701.60
EUR Billion		 2890 2940 3200 3280 4060
Foreign Exchange Reserves 58572.87
EUR Million		 58619 58841 58890 58932 58994
Loans to Private Sector 454577.00
EUR Million		 489000 495000 501000 507000 545000
Loan Growth 1.00
percent		 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.2
Private Debt to GDP 200.10
percent		 191 191 185 185 179
Central Bank Balance Sheet 730825.00
EUR Million		 718000 725000 729000 732000 745000
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -3247700.00
EUR Thousand		 -2400000 -2100000 -1400000 -1500000 -1800000
Exports 24354883.87
EUR Thousand 		23800000 22500000 27900000 25100000 23700000
Imports 27602500.00
EUR Thousand		 26200000 24600000 29300000 26600000 25500000
Current Account 490.00
EUR Million		 2500 2800 1150 2500 3640
Current Account to GDP 1.90
percent		 1.1 1.1 1 1 0.8
Terms of Trade 100.50
Index Points		 105 104 106 106 104
Foreign Direct Investment 17079.00
EUR Million		 -1600 2450 2200 2900 2320
Capital Flows 5767.00
EUR Million		 2200 7500 -1900 2100 4400
Remittances 3308.00
EUR Million		 2420 3620 2750 3240 3890
Tourist Arrivals 9979.78
Thousand		 8950 4120 5420 9150 6150
Gold Reserves 281.60
Tonnes		 282 282 282 282 282
Tourism Revenues 5328.00
EUR Million		 6980 3220 3820 6720 4050
Terrorism Index 1.70
 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Weapons Sales 814.00
USD Million		 909 868 826 785 794
External Debt 1957442000.00
EUR Thousand		 1961960000 1975330000 1986403000 1991502000 2031138000
Crude Oil Production 2.00
BBL/D/1K		 2 2 2 2 2
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 98.30
percent		 95.5 95.5 92.6 92.6 89.4
Government Budget -3.10
percent of GDP		 -2.5 -2.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.1
Government Budget Value -18080.00
EUR Million		 -18200 -28200 -7900 -18400 -26400
Government Spending 54951.00
EUR Million		 54652 55480 55853 56215 58062
Government Spending to GDP 41.00
percent		 41.2 41.2 40.9 40.9 41
Government Debt 1160613351.00
EUR Thousand		 1167000000 1174000000 1183000000 1189000000 1231000000
Military Expenditure 15686.00
USD Million		 14821 14689 14856 15022 14774
Asylum Applications 3800.00
persons		 2120 1620 1400 2050 1090
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence -4.30
Index Points		 -2.6 0.5 1 0.8 -4
Services PMI 52.70
Index Points		 55.2 54.8 54.4 54 53.4
Manufacturing PMI 53.00
 55 55.2 54.6 54.4 53.2
Industrial Production 0.50
percent		 2.9 2.5 3.2 3 2
Industrial Production Mom -0.30
percent		 -0.2 0.4 0.6 -0.4 0.2
Manufacturing Production 1.70
percent		 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.4
Capacity Utilization 79.50
percent		 80.5 80.5 80.6 80.7 81.2
Changes in Inventories 1862.00
EUR Million		 1406 1357 1314 1257 1133
Bankruptcies 1610.00
Companies		 890 1210 1120 1250 850
Total Vehicle Sales 107692.00
 85900 105600 129800 137800 119500
Car Production 2224.00
Hundred Units		 2250 1500 2700 2400 1900
Car Registrations 153732.00
 118500 121400 107200 115400 149800
Internet Speed 15487.07
KBps		 17812 18253 18286 18755 20317
IP Addresses 14575619.00
IP		 14347767 14569036 14779791 14691201 15004114
Mining Production -5.90
percent		 5.1 3.2 2.2 2 1.5
Steel Production 1200.00
Thousand Tonnes		 1320 1020 1450 1340 1260
Competitiveness Index 4.70
Points		 4.7 4.7 4.76 4.76 4.82
Competitiveness Rank 34.00
 34 34 33 34 32
Factory Orders 2.70
percent		 4.2 4 3.8 3.6 3.2
Ease of Doing Business 28.00
 27 27 26 26 25
Electricity Production 23314.00
Gigawatt-hour		 21900 25400 22800 24100 25600
Corruption Index 57.00
Points		 58 58 59 59 60
Corruption Rank 42.00
 41 41 40 40 39
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 102.40
Index Points		 103 102 103 104 104
Retail Sales MoM -0.40
percent		 0.6 0.3 -0.4 0.6 0.3
Retail Sales YoY -0.40
percent		 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.2
Consumer Spending 170505.00
EUR Million		 167225 171624 173547 174427 179609
Disposable Personal Income 198065.00
EUR Million		 196000 227000 197000 244000 241000
Personal Savings -4.18
percent		 -1 15 -1.7 15 12
Consumer Credit 646057957.00
EUR Thousand		 661000000 665000000 671000000 677000000 727000000
Private Sector Credit 1189099.00
EUR Million		 1290000 1330000 1360000 1410000 1650000
Bank Lending Rate 1.22
percent		 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.97
Households Debt To Gdp 61.30
percent of GDP		 61.5 61.5 60.8 60.8 60
Households Debt To Income 103.09
percent		 95.1 95.1 91.5 91.5 85
Gasoline Prices 1.58
USD/Liter		 1.61 1.52 1.44 1.36 1.07
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Construction Output 1.80
percent		 5.1 4.5 3.2 2.8 2.1
Housing Index 1587.90
EUR/SQ. METRE		 1605 1645 1678 1695 1832
Mortgage Approvals 30600.00
Units		 30200 21500 29100 30200 25100
New Home Sales 7.78
Thousand		 7.51 6.12 8.15 8.45 11.51
Existing Home Sales 38.12
Thousand		 32.56 28.15 36.22 38.78 34.65
Housing Starts 0.89
Thousand units		 0.51 0.75 0.99 1.09 1.64
Home Ownership Rate 77.10
percent		 77.2 77.2 76.9 76.9 76.4
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00
percent		 25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent		 45 45 45 43 45
Sales Tax Rate 21.00
percent		 21 21 21 21 21
Social Security Rate 36.25
percent		 36.25 36.25 36.25 36.25 36.25
Social Security Rate For Companies 29.90
percent		 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.35
percent		 6.35 6.35 6.35 6.35 6.35
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 8.43
celsius		 21.5 9.99 7.54 17.32 13.95
Precipitation 17.30
mm		 28.18 67.31 56.73 49.39 51.68