South Korea - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for South Korea including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Korea economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 1 0.9 0.9 0.8 1 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.70 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 4 percent
Inflation Rate 1.50 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.4 percent
Interest Rate 1.50 1.75 1.75 1.75 2 2.25 percent
Balance of Trade 6331.21 5400 5200 4230 5440 5800 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 38.00 38 38 39 39 40 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1139.97
1141 1161 1183 1205 1296
Stock Market 2269.31
points
2196 2128 2063 2000 1765
Government Bond 10Y 2.52
percent
2.67 2.76 2.86 2.96 3.4
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00
percent
1 0.9 0.9 0.8 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.80
percent
2.7 2.8 2.7 2.8 3
GDP 1530.75
USD Billion
1577 1577 1622 1622 1700
GDP Constant Prices 395932.80
KRW Billion
397815 402648 406623 397955 426755
Gross National Product 394081.60
KRW Billion
418317 434733 404722 411325 460760
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 128329.80
KRW Billion
127815 128101 131795 128473 135771
GDP per capita 26152.03
USD
26500 26500 26800 26800 28780
GDP per capita PPP 35938.37
USD
36653 36653 37400 37400 38201
GDP From Agriculture 7531.90
KRW Billion
7157 7271 7735 7389 7706
GDP From Construction 17957.40
KRW Billion
17913 17876 18442 17986 18946
GDP From Manufacturing 114019.80
KRW Billion
115341 115005 117098 113971 121890
GDP From Mining 511.60
KRW Billion
564 563 525 589 596
GDP From Public Administration 23692.70
KRW Billion
23632 24114 24332 23844 25557
GDP From Services 209158.30
KRW Billion
209498 213128 214806 210342 225887
GDP From Transport 13025.00
KRW Billion
13252 13474 13377 13171 14281
GDP From Utilities 7326.60
KRW Billion
7824 7966 7524 7803 8443
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.70
percent
3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 4
Employed Persons 26798.00
Thousand
26778 27500 27775 26775 28700
Unemployed Persons 1018.00
Thousand
1023 1153 1033 1043 1280
Labor Force Participation Rate 63.80
percent
62.7 62.5 63.1 62.9 63
Labour Costs 145.80
Index Points
158 137 153 132 142
Productivity 109.70
Index Points
108 109 109 110 112
Wages 3917383.00
KRW/Month
3692000 3766000 3863000 3658000 4093000
Wages in Manufacturing 4562783.00
KRW/Month
3943000 4146000 3987000 4376000 4424000
Minimum Wages 7530.00
KRW/Hour
7530 7530 8200 8200 8800
Population 51.45
Million
51.6 51.6 51.8 51.8 52.1
Retirement Age Women 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Youth Unemployment Rate 9.10
percent
8.9 8.7 9.1 8.8 8.4
Employment Rate 61.40
percent
61.5 61.3 58.9 60.2 61.5
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.50
percent
1.7 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.4
Inflation Rate Mom -0.20
percent
0.2 0.1 0.11 0.11 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 104.20
Index Points
105 105 106 106 109
Core Consumer Prices 104.38
Index Points
105 105 107 106 109
Core Inflation Rate 1.20
percent
1.5 1.7 2.5 1.8 2.2
GDP Deflator 111.75
Index Points
110 114 112 110 117
Producer Prices 104.41
Index Points
106 106 107 107 111
Producer Prices Change 2.60
percent
2.9 3.1 2.8 2.2 1.9
Export Prices 85.68
Index Points
85.4 87 85.7 86.4 84
Import Prices 88.26
Index Points
88.3 91 88.5 88.9 94
Food Inflation 1.80
percent
2 2.2 2.5 1.85 2.9
Cpi Housing Utilities 101.73
Index Points
102 102 101 101 102
CPI Transportation 104.56
Index Points
103 104 105 107 109
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.50
percent
1.75 1.75 1.75 2 2.25
Interbank Rate 1.69
percent
1.94 1.94 1.94 2.19 2.44
Money Supply M0 98808700.00
KRW Million
99400000 99650000 99870000 99900000 103000000
Money Supply M1 845332.40
KRW Billion
850000 863000 881000 888000 950000
Money Supply M2 2616989.70
KRW Billion
2670000 2710000 2750000 2780000 3130000
Money Supply M3 3684424.70
KRW Billion
3700000 3950000 4055000 4120000 4350000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 400300.00
USD Million
400800 401000 401600 402000 402700
Loans to Private Sector 8064214.00
KRW Hundred Million
8075000 8090000 8098000 8100000 8320000
Deposit Interest Rate 1.67
percent
1.92 1.92 1.92 2.17 2.42
Private Debt To Gdp 253.50
percent
256 256 258 258 258
Central Bank Balance Sheet 492320.40
KRW Billion
490060 487000 490000 490150 498600
Foreign Stock Investment 7782.51
USD Hundreds of Millions
7792 7690 7663 7687 7800
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 6331.21
USD Million
5400 5200 4230 5440 5800
Exports 51221.18
USD Million
50370 48100 49100 50300 50800
Imports 44889.97
USD Million
44970 44900 44870 44860 45000
Current Account 8680.00
USD Million
6245 10680 9800 7500 9010
Current Account to GDP 5.60
percent
6.2 6.2 6.1 6.1 5.8
External Debt 433886.70
USD Million
430000 426000 426500 427700 431000
Terms of Trade 98.60
Index Points
96.72 95.6 96.84 97.19 89.36
Foreign Direct Investment 10820000.00
USD Thousand
4468196 8370000 4970000 6830000 9040000
Capital Flows 6862.30
USD Million
7052 4900 4500 6300 7500
Tourism Revenues 1278700.00
USD Million
1300000 1350000 1277000 1273000 1420000
Tourist Arrivals 1238021.00
1210500 1320000 1188000 1195000 1380000
Gold Reserves 104.40
Tonnes
104 104 104 104 104
Terrorism Index 0.61
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Weapons Sales 587.00
USD Million
590 590 550 550 560
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 38.00
percent
38 38 39 39 40
Government Budget -2.00
percent of GDP
-1.9 -2.3 -2.5 -2.2 -3.2
Government Budget Value 8670.00
KRW Billion
-34000 6000 -9415 -136800 0
Government Spending 59609.00
KRW Billion
58683 59812 61218 58435 63393
Government Revenues 202793.00
KRW Billion
225000 371000 71300 11100 396000
Fiscal Expenditure 194123.00
KRW Billion
259000 365000 80715 147900 396000
Military Expenditure 37559.90
USD Million
38200 38200 39870 39870 40650
Asylum Applications 652.00
Persons
625 690 710 730 850
Government Spending To Gdp 32.26
percent
32.3 33.5 32.3 32.9 35
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 80.00
Index Points
79.7 82 82.3 82.5 83
Manufacturing PMI 49.80
49.5 50.8 51 51.1 50.9
Industrial Production 0.90
percent
-0.1 4.6 0.1 2.1 2.5
Industrial Production Mom 1.10
percent
0.4 1.2 1.9 -1.5 1.7
Manufacturing Production 0.80
percent
-0.1 1.8 -1.5 -0.1 1.1
Capacity Utilization 102.50
Index Points
102 103 103 104 105
New Orders 8100104.00
KRW Million
7054000 4400000 4923000 5100000 5110000
Changes in Inventories 41.40
KRW Billion
1477 1085 2102 2252 3030
Bankruptcies 45.00
Companies
36.5 48 44.61 37.8 58
Car Registrations 130625.00
126051 112400 139200 141000 151000
Leading Economic Index 112.70
Index Points
113 113 113 114 114
Internet Speed 28553.69
KBps
27602 27646 27643 27662 27650
IP Addresses 25814048.00
IP
25832626 25854401 25856443 25884415 25872530
Mining Production -10.30
percent
-3.7 2.8 -3.1 -2.9 4.7
Steel Production 6227.06
Thousand Tonnes
5971 6220 6032 6042 6410
Cement Production 5221.00
Thousands of Tonnes
5168 6280 5189 5212 6340
Coincident Index 109.20
Index Points
109 110 110 110 111
Competitiveness Index 5.07
Points
5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.3
Competitiveness Rank 26.00
26 26 25 25 24
Car Production 4114913.00
4000000 4000000 4150000 4150000 4250000
Ease of Doing Business 4.00
4 4 5 5 3
Electricity Production 23316.35
Gigawatt-hour
23640 23000 23625 23300 24300
Corruption Index 54.00
Points
54 54 53 53 55
Corruption Rank 51.00
48 48 45 45 38
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 106.00
Index Points
107 107 107 106 109
Retail Sales MoM -1.00
percent
0.4 0.5 0.3 -0.7 0.9
Retail Sales YoY 4.60
percent
4.8 4.5 4.8 3.7 6
Consumer Spending 189747.30
KRW Billion
189310 193947 194870 190523 205559
Disposable Personal Income 1722492.80
KRW Billion
1760000 1790000 1810000 1820000 1950000
Personal Savings 8.80
percent
8.5 9.1 8.3 8.2 11.4
Consumer Credit 1468047.00
KRW Billion
1490000 1520000 1525000 1537000 1600000
Bank Lending Rate 3.68
percent
3.93 3.93 3.93 4.18 4.43
Households Debt To Gdp 94.80
percent of GDP
95.1 95.4 95.8 96.1 96.9
Gasoline Prices 1.44
USD/Liter
1.36 1.29 1.22 1.15 0.64
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 103.70
Index points
104 104 105 105 104
Home Ownership Rate 56.80
percent
55 55 57.1 57.1 55.8
Construction Orders 4609639.00
KRW Million
6517219 10000000 5040270 6040191 9500000
Construction Output 0.00
percent
-1.3 13.4 -0.1 0.8 5.9
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate 40.00
percent
40 40 40 40 40
Sales Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate 18.81
percent
18.81 18.81 18.81 18.81 19
Social Security Rate For Companies 10.40
percent
10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 8.4
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.41
percent
8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 35.90
mm
228 44.24 40.81 116 112
Temperature 1.64
celsius
23.22 7.23 1 21.13 12.13