South Korea - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for South Korea including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Korea economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 1 0.9 0.9 0.8 1 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.70 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 4 percent
Inflation Rate 1.50 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.4 percent
Interest Rate 1.50 1.75 1.75 1.75 2 2.25 percent
Balance of Trade 6331.21 5400 5200 4230 5440 5800 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 38.00 38 38 39 39 40 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1139.97
 1141 1161 1183 1205 1296
Stock Market 2269.31
points		 2196 2128 2063 2000 1765
Government Bond 10Y 2.52
percent		 2.67 2.76 2.86 2.96 3.4
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00
percent		 1 0.9 0.9 0.8 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.80
percent		 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.8 3
GDP 1530.75
USD Billion		 1577 1577 1622 1622 1700
GDP Constant Prices 395932.80
KRW Billion		 397815 402648 406623 397955 426755
Gross National Product 394081.60
KRW Billion		 418317 434733 404722 411325 460760
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 128329.80
KRW Billion		 127815 128101 131795 128473 135771
GDP per capita 26152.03
USD		 26500 26500 26800 26800 28780
GDP per capita PPP 35938.37
USD		 36653 36653 37400 37400 38201
GDP From Agriculture 7531.90
KRW Billion		 7157 7271 7735 7389 7706
GDP From Construction 17957.40
KRW Billion		 17913 17876 18442 17986 18946
GDP From Manufacturing 114019.80
KRW Billion		 115341 115005 117098 113971 121890
GDP From Mining 511.60
KRW Billion		 564 563 525 589 596
GDP From Public Administration 23692.70
KRW Billion		 23632 24114 24332 23844 25557
GDP From Services 209158.30
KRW Billion		 209498 213128 214806 210342 225887
GDP From Transport 13025.00
KRW Billion		 13252 13474 13377 13171 14281
GDP From Utilities 7326.60
KRW Billion		 7824 7966 7524 7803 8443
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.70
percent		 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 4
Employed Persons 26798.00
Thousand 		26778 27500 27775 26775 28700
Unemployed Persons 1018.00
Thousand 		1023 1153 1033 1043 1280
Labor Force Participation Rate 63.80
percent		 62.7 62.5 63.1 62.9 63
Labour Costs 145.80
Index Points		 158 137 153 132 142
Productivity 109.70
Index Points		 108 109 109 110 112
Wages 3917383.00
KRW/Month		 3692000 3766000 3863000 3658000 4093000
Wages in Manufacturing 4562783.00
KRW/Month		 3943000 4146000 3987000 4376000 4424000
Minimum Wages 7530.00
KRW/Hour		 7530 7530 8200 8200 8800
Population 51.45
Million		 51.6 51.6 51.8 51.8 52.1
Retirement Age Women 60.00
 60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 60.00
 60 60 60 60 60
Youth Unemployment Rate 9.10
percent		 8.9 8.7 9.1 8.8 8.4
Employment Rate 61.40
percent		 61.5 61.3 58.9 60.2 61.5
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.50
percent		 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.4
Inflation Rate Mom -0.20
percent		 0.2 0.1 0.11 0.11 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 104.20
Index Points		 105 105 106 106 109
Core Consumer Prices 104.38
Index Points		 105 105 107 106 109
Core Inflation Rate 1.20
percent		 1.5 1.7 2.5 1.8 2.2
GDP Deflator 111.75
Index Points		 110 114 112 110 117
Producer Prices 104.41
Index Points		 106 106 107 107 111
Producer Prices Change 2.60
percent		 2.9 3.1 2.8 2.2 1.9
Export Prices 85.68
Index Points		 85.4 87 85.7 86.4 84
Import Prices 88.26
Index Points		 88.3 91 88.5 88.9 94
Food Inflation 1.80
percent		 2 2.2 2.5 1.85 2.9
Cpi Housing Utilities 101.73
Index Points		 102 102 101 101 102
CPI Transportation 104.56
Index Points		 103 104 105 107 109
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.50
percent		 1.75 1.75 1.75 2 2.25
Interbank Rate 1.69
percent		 1.94 1.94 1.94 2.19 2.44
Money Supply M0 98808700.00
KRW Million		 99400000 99650000 99870000 99900000 103000000
Money Supply M1 845332.40
KRW Billion		 850000 863000 881000 888000 950000
Money Supply M2 2616989.70
KRW Billion		 2670000 2710000 2750000 2780000 3130000
Money Supply M3 3684424.70
KRW Billion		 3700000 3950000 4055000 4120000 4350000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 400300.00
USD Million		 400800 401000 401600 402000 402700
Loans to Private Sector 8064214.00
KRW Hundred Million		 8075000 8090000 8098000 8100000 8320000
Deposit Interest Rate 1.67
percent		 1.92 1.92 1.92 2.17 2.42
Private Debt To Gdp 253.50
percent		 256 256 258 258 258
Central Bank Balance Sheet 492320.40
KRW Billion		 490060 487000 490000 490150 498600
Foreign Stock Investment 7782.51
USD Hundreds of Millions		 7792 7690 7663 7687 7800
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 6331.21
USD Million		 5400 5200 4230 5440 5800
Exports 51221.18
USD Million		 50370 48100 49100 50300 50800
Imports 44889.97
USD Million		 44970 44900 44870 44860 45000
Current Account 8680.00
USD Million		 6245 10680 9800 7500 9010
Current Account to GDP 5.60
percent		 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.1 5.8
External Debt 433886.70
USD Million		 430000 426000 426500 427700 431000
Terms of Trade 98.60
Index Points		 96.72 95.6 96.84 97.19 89.36
Foreign Direct Investment 10820000.00
USD Thousand 		4468196 8370000 4970000 6830000 9040000
Capital Flows 6862.30
USD Million		 7052 4900 4500 6300 7500
Tourism Revenues 1278700.00
USD Million		 1300000 1350000 1277000 1273000 1420000
Tourist Arrivals 1238021.00
 1210500 1320000 1188000 1195000 1380000
Gold Reserves 104.40
Tonnes		 104 104 104 104 104
Terrorism Index 0.61
 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Weapons Sales 587.00
USD Million		 590 590 550 550 560
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 38.00
percent		 38 38 39 39 40
Government Budget -2.00
percent of GDP		 -1.9 -2.3 -2.5 -2.2 -3.2
Government Budget Value 8670.00
KRW Billion		 -34000 6000 -9415 -136800 0
Government Spending 59609.00
KRW Billion		 58683 59812 61218 58435 63393
Government Revenues 202793.00
KRW Billion		 225000 371000 71300 11100 396000
Fiscal Expenditure 194123.00
KRW Billion		 259000 365000 80715 147900 396000
Military Expenditure 37559.90
USD Million		 38200 38200 39870 39870 40650
Asylum Applications 652.00
Persons		 625 690 710 730 850
Government Spending To Gdp 32.26
percent		 32.3 33.5 32.3 32.9 35
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 80.00
Index Points		 79.7 82 82.3 82.5 83
Manufacturing PMI 49.80
 49.5 50.8 51 51.1 50.9
Industrial Production 0.90
percent		 -0.1 4.6 0.1 2.1 2.5
Industrial Production Mom 1.10
percent		 0.4 1.2 1.9 -1.5 1.7
Manufacturing Production 0.80
percent		 -0.1 1.8 -1.5 -0.1 1.1
Capacity Utilization 102.50
Index Points		 102 103 103 104 105
New Orders 8100104.00
KRW Million		 7054000 4400000 4923000 5100000 5110000
Changes in Inventories 41.40
KRW Billion		 1477 1085 2102 2252 3030
Bankruptcies 45.00
Companies		 36.5 48 44.61 37.8 58
Car Registrations 130625.00
 126051 112400 139200 141000 151000
Leading Economic Index 112.70
Index Points		 113 113 113 114 114
Internet Speed 28553.69
KBps		 27602 27646 27643 27662 27650
IP Addresses 25814048.00
IP		 25832626 25854401 25856443 25884415 25872530
Mining Production -10.30
percent		 -3.7 2.8 -3.1 -2.9 4.7
Steel Production 6227.06
Thousand Tonnes		 5971 6220 6032 6042 6410
Cement Production 5221.00
Thousands of Tonnes 		5168 6280 5189 5212 6340
Coincident Index 109.20
Index Points		 109 110 110 110 111
Competitiveness Index 5.07
Points		 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.3
Competitiveness Rank 26.00
 26 26 25 25 24
Car Production 4114913.00
 4000000 4000000 4150000 4150000 4250000
Ease of Doing Business 4.00
 4 4 5 5 3
Electricity Production 23316.35
Gigawatt-hour		 23640 23000 23625 23300 24300
Corruption Index 54.00
Points		 54 54 53 53 55
Corruption Rank 51.00
 48 48 45 45 38
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 106.00
Index Points		 107 107 107 106 109
Retail Sales MoM -1.00
percent		 0.4 0.5 0.3 -0.7 0.9
Retail Sales YoY 4.60
percent		 4.8 4.5 4.8 3.7 6
Consumer Spending 189747.30
KRW Billion		 189310 193947 194870 190523 205559
Disposable Personal Income 1722492.80
KRW Billion		 1760000 1790000 1810000 1820000 1950000
Personal Savings 8.80
percent		 8.5 9.1 8.3 8.2 11.4
Consumer Credit 1468047.00
KRW Billion		 1490000 1520000 1525000 1537000 1600000
Bank Lending Rate 3.68
percent		 3.93 3.93 3.93 4.18 4.43
Households Debt To Gdp 94.80
percent of GDP		 95.1 95.4 95.8 96.1 96.9
Gasoline Prices 1.44
USD/Liter		 1.36 1.29 1.22 1.15 0.64
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 103.70
Index points		 104 104 105 105 104
Home Ownership Rate 56.80
percent		 55 55 57.1 57.1 55.8
Construction Orders 4609639.00
KRW Million		 6517219 10000000 5040270 6040191 9500000
Construction Output 0.00
percent		 -1.3 13.4 -0.1 0.8 5.9
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00
percent		 25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate 40.00
percent		 40 40 40 40 40
Sales Tax Rate 10.00
percent		 10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate 18.81
percent		 18.81 18.81 18.81 18.81 19
Social Security Rate For Companies 10.40
percent		 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 8.4
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.41
percent		 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 35.90
mm		 228 44.24 40.81 116 112
Temperature 1.64
celsius		 23.22 7.23 1 21.13 12.13