South Korea - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for South Korea including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Korea economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 1 0.9 0.9 0.8 1 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.20 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 4 percent
Inflation Rate 1.40 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.3 percent
Interest Rate 1.50 1.75 1.75 1.75 2 2.25 percent
Balance of Trade 6900.00 5400 3200 4230 5440 5800 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 38.00 38.5 38.5 39 39 40 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1116.88
 1124 1131 1138 1145 1175
Stock Market 2339.17
points		 2285 2262 2239 2216 2127
Government Bond 10Y 2.41
percent		 2.38 2.41 2.44 2.46 2.58
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60
percent		 1 0.9 0.9 0.8 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.80
percent		 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.8 3
GDP 1530.75
USD Billion		 1577 1577 1622 1622 1700
GDP Constant Prices 397959.20
KRW Billion		 398011 402648 406287 409102 426755
Gross National Product 406053.70
KRW Billion		 418523 434733 404722 417423 460760
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 123422.80
KRW Billion		 127878 128101 130517 126879 135771
GDP per capita 26152.03
USD		 26500 26500 26800 26800 27200
GDP per capita PPP 35938.37
USD		 36653 36653 37400 37400 38201
GDP From Agriculture 7286.80
KRW Billion		 7161 7271 7700 7491 7706
GDP From Construction 17199.30
KRW Billion		 17922 17876 18227 17681 18946
GDP From Manufacturing 114354.10
KRW Billion		 115398 115005 116722 117556 121890
GDP From Mining 526.50
KRW Billion		 564 563 572 541 596
GDP From Public Administration 23995.10
KRW Billion		 23644 24114 24436 24667 25557
GDP From Services 210746.10
KRW Billion		 209602 213128 215306 216647 225887
GDP From Transport 13204.60
KRW Billion		 13259 13474 13327 13574 14281
GDP From Utilities 7890.00
KRW Billion		 7828 7966 7404 8111 8443
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.20
percent		 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 4
Employed Persons 26721.00
Thousand 		26750 26810 26830 26850 27500
Unemployed Persons 1179.00
Thousand 		1050 1030 1060 1040 1110
Labor Force Participation Rate 63.40
percent		 63.3 63.1 62.9 62.7 63
Labour Costs 127.70
Index Points		 125 137 142 138 142
Productivity 105.60
Index Points		 106 108 109 110 19.6
Wages 3457189.00
KRW/Month		 3825000 3791000 4167000 3832000 4236000
Wages in Manufacturing 3692181.00
KRW/Month		 4149000 4152000 4837000 4059000 4542000
Minimum Wages 7530.00
KRW/Hour		 7530 7530 8200 8200 8800
Population 51.45
Million		 51.6 51.6 51.8 51.8 52.1
Retirement Age Women 60.00
 60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 60.00
 60 60 60 60 60
Youth Unemployment Rate 9.90
percent		 9.5 8.7 9.1 8.8 8.4
Employment Rate 60.90
percent		 660 61.3 58.9 60.2 61.5
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.40
percent		 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50
percent		 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 104.91
Index Points		 105 105 106 106 109
Core Consumer Prices 104.31
Index Points		 104 105 106 106 108
Core Inflation Rate 0.90
percent		 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.2
GDP Deflator 111.35
Index Points		 112 114 112 110 117
Producer Prices 105.43
Index Points		 106 106 107 107 111
Producer Prices Change 3.00
percent		 2.9 3.1 2.8 2.5 1.9
Export Prices 87.61
Index Points		 86.8 87 85.7 86.4 84
Import Prices 89.40
Index Points		 88.5 91 88.5 88.9 94
Food Inflation 3.00
percent		 2.7 2.2 2.5 2.8 2.9
Cpi Housing Utilities 100.53
Index Points		 103 103 104 104 107
CPI Transportation 104.85
Index Points		 102 104 105 107 109
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.50
percent		 1.75 1.75 1.75 2 2.25
Interbank Rate 1.69
percent		 1.94 1.94 1.94 2.19 2.44
Money Supply M0 99333700.00
KRW Million		 99500000 99650000 99870000 99900000 103000000
Money Supply M1 849972.70
KRW Billion		 859000 863000 881000 888000 950000
Money Supply M2 2640903.60
KRW Billion		 2680000 2710000 2750000 2780000 3130000
Money Supply M3 3713635.60
KRW Billion		 3800000 3950000 4055000 4120000 4350000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 401130.00
USD Million		 400800 401000 401600 402000 402700
Loans to Private Sector 8172684.00
KRW Hundred Million		 8200000 8230000 8250000 8270000 8320000
Deposit Interest Rate 1.67
percent		 1.92 1.92 1.92 2.17 2.42
Private Debt To Gdp 253.30
percent		 256 256 258 258 258
Central Bank Balance Sheet 498776.90
KRW Billion		 499060 487000 490000 490150 498600
Foreign Stock Investment 7302.78
USD Hundreds of Millions		 7592 7690 7663 7687 7800
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 6900.00
USD Million		 5400 3200 4230 5440 5800
Exports 51196.00
USD Million		 50370 48100 49100 50300 50800
Imports 44296.00
USD Million		 44970 44900 44870 44860 45000
Current Account 8757.80
USD Million		 9600 10680 9800 7500 9010
Current Account to GDP 5.60
percent		 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.1 5.8
External Debt 440543.60
USD Million		 448000 450000 436500 427700 431000
Terms of Trade 97.50
Index Points		 98.08 95.6 96.84 97.19 89.36
Foreign Direct Investment 10819799.00
USD Thousand 		4968000 8370000 4970000 6830000 9040000
Capital Flows 10449.50
USD Million		 7052 4900 4500 6300 7500
Tourism Revenues 1239300.00
USD Million		 1300000 1350000 1277000 1273000 1420000
Tourist Arrivals 1391727.00
 1293000 1320000 1288500 1195000 1380000
Gold Reserves 104.40
Tonnes		 104 104 104 104 104
Terrorism Index 0.61
 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Weapons Sales 587.00
USD Million		 590 590 550 550 560
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 38.00
percent		 38.5 38.5 39 39 40
Government Budget -2.00
percent of GDP		 -2.3 -2.3 -2.7 -2.7 -3.2
Government Budget Value 9220.00
KRW Billion		 13000 26000 -1800 14000 33000
Government Spending 59634.50
KRW Billion		 58712 59812 61040 61304 63393
Government Revenues 276088.00
KRW Billion		 315000 411000 115200 255000 425000
Fiscal Expenditure 266868.00
KRW Billion		 302000 385000 117000 241000 392000
Military Expenditure 37559.90
USD Million		 38200 38200 39870 39870 40650
Asylum Applications 652.00
Persons		 625 690 710 730 850
Government Spending To Gdp 32.26
percent		 33.5 33.5 33.4 33.4 33.7
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 73.00
Index Points		 77.1 75 77 79.2 83
Manufacturing PMI 49.90
 49.5 50.8 51 51.1 50.9
Industrial Production 0.90
percent		 -2.1 4.6 0.1 2.1 2.5
Industrial Production Mom 0.40
percent		 1.4 1.2 1.9 -1.5 1.7
Manufacturing Production 0.80
percent		 -0.1 1.8 -1.5 -0.1 1.1
Capacity Utilization 102.60
Index Points		 103 103 103 104 105
New Orders 8188806.00
KRW Million		 8150000 7450000 8210000 7670000 7860000
Changes in Inventories 179.10
KRW Billion		 1400 1080 2100 2250 3030
Bankruptcies 26.00
Companies		 36.5 41.1 39.9 37.8 27
Car Registrations 124289.00
 126000 112400 125000 134000 141000
Leading Economic Index 113.20
Index Points		 114 114 115 115 119
Internet Speed 28553.69
KBps		 28500 27600 27200 26900 28000
IP Addresses 25814048.00
IP		 28000000 28400000 28900000 29300000 32800000
Mining Production -20.70
percent		 -3.7 2.8 -3.1 -5.9 4.7
Steel Production 6177.46
Thousand Tonnes		 6200 6220 6030 6090 6410
Coincident Index 109.10
Index Points		 109 110 110 110 111
Competitiveness Index 5.07
Points		 5.07 5.07 5.11 5.11 5.15
Competitiveness Rank 26.00
 26 26 25 25 25
Car Production 4114913.00
 4000000 4000000 4150000 4150000 4250000
Ease of Doing Business 4.00
 5 5 4 4 3
Electricity Production 24056.27
Gigawatt-hour		 23640 23000 23625 23300 24300
Corruption Index 54.00
Points		 54 54 53 53 55
Corruption Rank 51.00
 48 48 45 45 38
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 99.20
Index Points		 98.6 99.3 101 101 103
Retail Sales MoM 0.50
percent		 -1.4 0.5 0.3 -0.7 0.9
Retail Sales YoY 6.00
percent		 4.8 4.5 4.2 3.7 6
Consumer Spending 190580.50
KRW Billion		 189403 193947 193759 195917 205559
Disposable Personal Income 1722492.80
KRW Billion		 1790000 1790000 1870000 1870000 1950000
Personal Savings 8.80
percent		 9.1 9.1 10.3 10.3 11.4
Consumer Credit 1493155.50
KRW Billion		 1520000 1537000 1551000 1583000 1647000
Bank Lending Rate 3.67
percent		 3.92 3.92 3.92 4.17 4.42
Households Debt To Gdp 95.20
percent of GDP		 95.1 95.4 95.8 96.1 96.9
Gasoline Prices 1.46
USD/Liter		 1.43 1.35 1.28 1.21 0.95
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 104.00
Index points		 104 104 105 105 104
Home Ownership Rate 56.80
percent		 55 55 57.1 57.1 55.8
Construction Orders 3076529.00
KRW Million		 3800000 4250000 6770000 7580000 9890000
Construction Output -7.00
percent		 -1.3 13.4 -0.1 0.8 5.9
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00
percent		 25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate 40.00
percent		 40 40 40 40 40
Sales Tax Rate 10.00
percent		 10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate 18.81
percent		 18.81 18.81 18.81 18.81 18.81
Social Security Rate For Companies 10.40
percent		 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.41
percent		 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 35.90
mm		 228 44.24 40.81 116 112
Temperature 1.64
celsius		 23.22 7.23 1 21.13 12.13