Retail sales in South Africa rose 1.2 percent year-on-year in January 2019, following an upwardly revised 1.6 percent fall in December and slightly above market expectations of a 1.1 percent gain. Sales rebounded for: general dealers (1.1 percent vs -1.9 percent in December); pharmaceuticals goods & cosmetics (6 percent vs -3.1 percent) and textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods (1.1 percent vs -2 percent). Additionally, sales went up faster for household furniture, appliances and equipment (1.1 percent vs 0.2 percent) and all other retailers (3 percent vs 1.6 percent). In contrast, lower sales were seen for food, beverages & tobacco (-2.1 percent vs -2.2 percent) and hardware, paint and glass (-3 percent vs -3.4 percent). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.5 percent, after an upwardly revised 5.1 percent decline in the prior month Retail Sales YoY in South Africa averaged 4.44 percent from 2003 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 15.50 percent in September of 2006 and a record low of -6.30 percent in April of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in South Africa is expected to be 1.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in South Africa to stand at 2.10 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the South Africa Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.