South Africa's retail trade rose 2.2 percent year-on-year in May 2019, following an upwardly revised 2.7 percent growth in the previous month and beating market expectations of 1.6 percent. The largest annual increases were recorded for: general dealers (4 percent vs 1.8 percent); retailers in household furniture, appliances and equipment (3.2 percent vs 5.8 percent); retailers in pharmaceuticals and medical goods, cosmetics and toiletries (2.9 percent vs 5.1 percent); and retailers in food, beverages and tobacco in specialised stores (2.7 percent vs 0.1 percent). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail sales edged up 0.1 percent in May, easing from a 1 percent increase in April. Retail Sales YoY in South Africa averaged 4.45 percent from 2003 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 15.50 percent in September of 2006 and a record low of -6.30 percent in April of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in South Africa is expected to be 1.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in South Africa to stand at 2.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the South Africa Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.