The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa increased by 0.5 percent month-over-month in November 2019, following a 0.7 percent rise in October. Six of the ten available components increased while four decreased. The largest positive contributions came from an acceleration in the twelve-month percentage change in job advertisement space and an improvement in the BER’s Business Confidence Index. The largest negative contributions came from a decrease in the number of residential building plans approved and a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the real M1 money supply.

Leading Economic Index in South Africa averaged 0.19 percent from 1960 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 4.70 percent in January of 1980 and a record low of -3.70 percent in November of 2008. This page provides the latest reported value for - South Africa Leading Economic Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Leading Economic Index in South Africa is expected to be -0.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in South Africa to stand at 0.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the South Africa Leading Economic Index is projected to trend around 0.60 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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South Africa Leading Economic Index

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.50 0.70 4.70 -3.70 1960 - 2019 percent Monthly

South Africa Leading Economic Index
In South Africa, the Composite Leading Business Cycle Indicator examines the direction in which real economic activity is moving, in real time. It is calculated on the basis of the following components: building plans approved, new passenger vehicles sold, commodity price index for main export commodities, index of prices of all classes of shares traded on the JSE, job advertisements, volume of orders in manufacturing, real M1, average hours worked per factory worker in manufacturing, interest rate spread, composite leading business cycle indicator of the major trading-partner countries, business confidence index, gross operating surplus as a percentage of GDP. The index has a base value of 100 as of 2010.