The South African Reserve Bank decided unanimously to hold its benchmark repo rate steady at 6.75% on March 28th 2019, as widely expected. Policymakers said the current stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and monetary policy actions will continue to focus on anchoring inflation near to the mid-point of the target range in the interest of sustainable growth. The Committee also noted the moderation in inflation expectations. The GDP growth projections were cut to 1.3% in 2019 (previously 1.7 percent); to 1.8 percent in 2020 (from 2%) and to 2% in 2021 (from 2.2%). Interest Rate in South Africa averaged 12.52 percent from 1998 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 23.99 percent in June of 1998 and a record low of 5 percent in July of 2012.

Interest Rate in South Africa is expected to be 6.75 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in South Africa to stand at 6.75 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the South Africa Interest Rate is projected to trend around 7.25 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

South Africa Interest Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-09-20 01:10 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
2018-11-22 01:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.75% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
2019-01-17 01:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.75% 6.75% 6.75% 6.75%
2019-03-28 01:10 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.75% 6.75% 6.75% 6.75%
2019-05-23 01:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.75% 6.75%
2019-07-18 01:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.75%
2019-09-19 01:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.75%



South Africa Leaves Interest Rate Unchanged at 6.75%

The South African Reserve Bank decided unanimously to hold its benchmark repo rate steady at 6.75% on March 28th 2019, as widely expected. Policymakers said the current stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and monetary policy actions will continue to focus on anchoring inflation near to the mid-point of the target range in the interest of sustainable growth. The Committee also noted the moderation in inflation expectations. The GDP growth projections were cut to 1.3% in 2019 (previously 1.7 percent); to 1.8 percent in 2020 (from 2%) and to 2% in 2021 (from 2.2%).

Excerpts from the statement by Governor Lesetja Kganyago:

The inflation forecast generated by the SARB’s Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) is broadly unchanged since the previous MPC. Headline inflation is expected to average 4.8% in 2019, before increasing to 5.3% in 2020 and moderating to 4.7% in 2021 (down from 4.8%). Headline CPI inflation is expected to peak at 5.7%, in the first quarter of 2020 and settle at 4.5% by the end of the forecast period.

The forecast also takes into account the recent electricity tariff increases announced by the National Energy Regulator of South Africa. The assumption for electricity price inflation, which takes into account municipal price adjustments, has increased from 12% to 13% for 2019/20 and from 6% to 9% in 2020/21. Higher food, fuel and electricity prices are expected to lift inflation over the medium term. However, this is expected to be offset by lower core inflation as unit labour costs and inflation expectations moderate.

Since the January MPC, the rand has depreciated by 6.4% against the US dollar, by 5.2% against the euro, and by 6.1% on a trade-weighted basis. The implied starting point for the rand is R14.00 against the US dollar, compared with R14.30 at the time of the previous meeting. At these levels, the QPM assesses the rand to be less undervalued.

GDP increased by 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2018, averaging 0.8% for the year. Fixed capital formation remains weak. This is largely due to declining investment by public corporations and government as well as weaker business confidence, as suggested by the most recent RMB/BER Business Confidence Index.

The SARB now expects GDP growth for 2019 to average 1.3% (down from 1.7% in January). The forecast for 2020 is 1.8% (down from 2.0%), rising to 2.0% for 2021 (down from 2.2%). This results from the bigger than expected slowdown in the global economy, declines in business confidence, potential supply side disruptions from load shedding and growing pressure on household disposable income.

The MPC assesses the risks to the growth forecast to continue to be on the downside. Electricity supply constraints and weak business confidence will likely limit near term production and investment prospects. The Committee remains of the view that current challenges facing the economy are primarily structural in nature. Given current economic vulnerabilities, prudent macroeconomic policies combined with structural reforms that raise potential growth and lower the cost structure of the economy, have become even more urgent.

Against this backdrop, the MPC unanimously decided to keep the repurchase rate unchanged at 6.75% per year. The Committee continues to assess the stance of monetary policy to be accommodative. 


SARB | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com
3/28/2019 1:59:32 PM


News

South Africa Holds Interest Rate Steady at 6.75%
The South African Reserve Bank left its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 6.75 percent on January 17th 2019 after hiking it by 25 bps in the previous meeting, as widely expected. Policymakers said the decision is accommodative and monetary policy actions will continue to focus on anchoring inflation near to the mid-point of the target range in the interest of sustainable growth. The Committee noted international developments including oil prices and the exchange rate depreciation as the key drivers of an improved inflation outlook.
Published on 2019-01-17

South Africa Hikes Interest Rate to 6.75%
The South African Reserve Bank raised its benchmark repo rate by 25 bps points to 6.75 percent on November 22nd 2018, surprising markets who expected no changes. It is the first hike in borrowing cost since March 2016, amid a rise in the inflation trajectory which continues to deviate from the mid-point of the target range. Policymakers said the decision is accommodative and that monetary policy actions will continue to focus on anchoring inflation near the target range mid-point.
Published on 2018-11-22

South Africa Leaves Interest Rate Unchanged at 6.5%
The South African Reserve Bank held its benchmark repo rate at 6.5 percent on September 20th, 2018, as widely expected. The Committee said the decision is accomodative given the current state of the economy. Policymakers noted risks and uncertainties at higher levels and a deterioration in the inflation outlook boosted by multiple supply-side factors. The Committee added that they will continue to monitor and will act if its necessary. Since the previous meeting, the country entered into recession.
Published on 2018-09-20

South Africa Leaves Monetary Policy Unchanged
The South African Reserve Bank kept its benchmark repo rate steady at 6.5 percent on July 19th, 2018, as widely expected. Policymakers said the decision is appropriate and accommodative given the current state of the economy. The Committee noted a deterioration in the inflation outlook due to supply-side factors. Policymakers added that they will continue to monitor and will act if the inflation deviates from the target range.
Published on 2018-07-19



South Africa Money Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Interest Rate 6.75 6.75 23.99 5.00 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 7.16 7.16 16.96 5.06 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 262481.00 258501.00 280228.00 415.00 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1722511.00 1729738.00 1776426.00 1482.00 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2856895.00 2847502.00 2893833.00 2887.00 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 3576549.00 3551630.00 3576549.00 4796.00 ZAR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 49679.00 50836.00 51889.00 5316.00 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5536801.00 5517659.00 5536801.00 114781.00 ZAR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 3687826.00 3684046.00 3687826.00 4051.00 ZAR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 7.25 7.17 18.86 5.15 percent [+]
Lending Rate 10.00 10.00 25.50 5.00 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 793295.00 788155.00 827165.00 543.00 ZAR Million [+]


South Africa Interest Rate

In South Africa, the interest rates decisions are taken by the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The official interest rate is the repo rate. This is the rate at which central banks lend or discount eligible paper for deposit money banks, typically shown on an end-of-period basis. This page provides - South Africa Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. South Africa Interest Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on April of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
6.75 6.75 23.99 5.00 1998 - 2019 percent Daily




Country Last Previous
Argentina 67.12 Apr/19
Turkey 24.00 Mar/19
Mexico 8.25 Mar/19
Russia 7.75 Mar/19
South Africa 6.75 Mar/19
Brazil 6.50 Mar/19
India 6.00 Apr/19
Indonesia 6.00 Mar/19
China 4.35 Mar/19
Saudi Arabia 3.00 Mar/19
United States 2.50 Mar/19
Singapore 2.24 Mar/19
Canada 1.75 Mar/19
South Korea 1.75 Apr/19
Australia 1.50 Apr/19
United Kingdom 0.75 Mar/19
Euro Area 0.00 Apr/19
France 0.00 Apr/19
Germany 0.00 Apr/19
Italy 0.00 Apr/19
Netherlands 0.00 Apr/19
Spain 0.00 Apr/19
Japan -0.10 Mar/19
Switzerland -0.75 Mar/19


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