The annual inflation rate in South Africa fell to 4.5 percent in December of 2018, reaching the mid-point of the central bank’s target range of 3 percent to 6 percent, from 5.2 percent in the previous month. It is the lowest annual inflation since May as cost of transport slowed sharply due to stronger rand and lower crude oil prices. Inflation Rate in South Africa averaged 9.04 percent from 1968 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 20.70 percent in January of 1986 and a record low of 0.20 percent in January of 2004.

Inflation Rate in South Africa is expected to be 4.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Inflation Rate in South Africa to stand at 4.80 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the South Africa Inflation Rate is projected to trend around 4.80 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

South Africa Inflation Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-10-24 08:00 AM Inflation Rate YoY 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 5.1%
2018-11-21 08:00 AM Inflation Rate YoY 5.1% 4.9% 5.1% 5.3%
2018-12-12 08:00 AM Inflation Rate YoY 5.2% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0%
2019-01-23 08:00 AM Inflation Rate YoY 4.5% 5.2% 4.5% 5%
2019-02-20 08:00 AM Inflation Rate YoY 4.5% 4.3% 4.3%
2019-03-20 08:00 AM Inflation Rate YoY 4.8%
2019-04-17 08:00 AM Inflation Rate YoY 4.7%



South Africa Inflation Rate Dips to 7-Month Low of 4.5%

The annual inflation rate in South Africa fell to 4.5 percent in December of 2018, reaching the mid-point of the central bank’s target range of 3 percent to 6 percent, from 5.2 percent in the previous month. It is the lowest annual inflation since May as cost of transport slowed sharply.

Year-on-year, inflation was lower mostly for transport (6.0 percent vs 10.7 percent in November), amid a sharp slowdown in cost of fuels (8.7 percent vs 23.1 percent), after a stronger rand and lower international crude oil prices contributed to fall in gasoline cost.  Also, prices eased for food & non-alcoholic beverages (3.0 percent vs 3.4 percent), namely fish (5.7 percent vs 6.0 percent); meat (1.8 percent vs 2.8 percent) and fruit (-1.5 percent vs -3.7 percent); household contents and services (3.2 percent vs 3.4 percent); clothing & footwear (1.7 percent vs 1.8 percent) and restaurants & hotels (3.7 percent vs 4.1 percent). At the same time, inflation was steady for education (6.7 percent) and communication (1.4 percent). 

Meanwhile, prices rose faster for: housing & utilities (5.4 percent vs 5.2 percent), including rents (4.2 percent), water (11 percent) and electricity (7.7 percent); miscellaneous goods & services (5.6 percent vs 5.5 percent); alcoholic beverages & tobacco (4.9 percent vs 4.8 percent); recreation & culture (1.1 percent vs 0.9 percent) and health (5.2 percent vs 5.1 percent).

Annual core inflation rate, which excludes cost of food, non-alcoholic beverages, fuel and energy, stood at 4.4 percent, unchanged from November and slightly below market consensus of 4.5 percent. It remains at the highest level since May. Compared to the previous month, core consumer prices went up 0.3 percent, after increasing 0.2 percent in November and below estimates of 0.4 percent.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.2 percent, following a 0.2 percent gain in November, in line with market expectations. Prices declined mainly for transport (-2.8 percent vs 0.6 percent), pushed down by cost of fuels (-8.0 percent vs 1.1 percent) while inflation was steady for food & non-alcoholic beverages (vs 0.4 percent in November). In contrast, cost went up for housing & utilities (0.5 percent, after being flat in November).


Statistics South Africa | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com
1/23/2019 1:45:13 PM



South Africa Prices Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Inflation Rate 4.50 5.20 20.70 0.20 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.20 0.20 6.70 -0.70 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 109.40 109.60 109.60 1.20 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 108.80 108.50 108.80 63.30 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 4.40 4.40 8.30 2.90 percent [+]
Producer Prices 110.70 111.70 219.40 4.10 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 5.20 6.80 8.80 2.61 percent [+]
Export Prices 156.70 151.20 156.70 0.60 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 149.20 141.50 149.20 1.20 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 3.00 3.40 15.60 0.60 percent [+]
Inflation Expectations 5.44 5.59 8.72 3.90 Percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 110.00 109.40 110.00 56.80 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 112.80 116.00 116.90 81.70 Index Points [+]


South Africa Inflation Rate

In South Africa, the most important categories in the consumer price index are Housing and Utilities (24.5 percent of total weight), Transport (16.4 percent) and Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (15.4 percent). Others include: Miscellaneous Goods and Services such as personal care, Insurance and Finance (14.7 percent); Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco (5.4 percent); Household Contents, Equipment and Maintenance (4.8 percent); Recreation and Culture (4.1 percent); Clothing and Footwear (4.1 percent). Restaurants and Hotels, Education, Communication and Health account for the remaining 10 percent. The CPI basket was revised in January of 2013. This page provides - South Africa Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. South Africa Inflation Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on February of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
4.50 5.20 20.70 0.20 1968 - 2018 percent Monthly




Country Last Previous
Argentina 48.90 Jan/19
Australia 1.80 Dec/18
Brazil 3.78 Jan/19
Canada 2.00 Dec/18
China 1.70 Jan/19
Euro Area 1.40 Jan/19
France 1.20 Jan/19
Germany 1.40 Jan/19
India 2.05 Jan/19
Indonesia 2.82 Jan/19
Italy 0.90 Jan/19
Japan 0.30 Dec/18
Mexico 4.37 Jan/19
Netherlands 2.20 Jan/19
Russia 5.00 Jan/19
Saudi Arabia 2.20 Dec/18
Singapore 0.50 Dec/18
South Africa 4.50 Dec/18
South Korea 0.80 Jan/19
Spain 1.00 Jan/19
Switzerland 0.60 Jan/19
Turkey 20.35 Jan/19
United Kingdom 1.80 Jan/19
United States 1.60 Jan/19


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