Singapore's retail sales dropped unexpectedly by 1.8% year-on-year in April 2019, missing market consensus of a 0.3% rise and after a downwardly revised 0.9% decline in March. This was the third straight month of yearly fall in retail trade, with sales decreasing for most components: petrol service (-0.9% vs -1.1% in March), furniture & household equipment (-6.5% vs -4.3%), recreational goods(-1.4% vs -2.7%), watches & jewelry (-2.9% vs -4.6%), optical goods & books (-3.2% vs -4.7%), medical goods & toiletries (-1.7% vs 2.7%), and motor vehicles (-1.1% vs 0.9%). Also, sales continued to fall in department stores (-3.1% vs -4.6%), and food retailers (-3.5% vs -5.5%). In contrast, sales growth accelerated for wearing apparel (3.4% vs 1.6%). On a monthly basis, retail sales rose by 0.5% in April, slowing from an upwardly revised 1.1% gain in March but way better than estimates of a flat reading. Retail Sales YoY in Singapore averaged 4.96 percent from 1986 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 50.90 percent in February of 1988 and a record low of -28.40 percent in February of 1986.
Retail Sales YoY in Singapore is expected to be 1.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Singapore to stand at 2.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Singapore Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 3.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.