Serbia’s retail sales increased 9.5 percent year-on-year in March 2019, easing from a 10.8 percent gain in the previous month. Sales rose less for food, beverages and tobacco (4.3 percent compared to 7.2 percent in February); and non-food products (13.1 percent compared to 13.8 percent). Meanwhile, sales of automotive fuel went up further (15.2 percent compared to 14.2 percent). On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 16 percent. Considering the first quarter of 2019, retail trade advanced 8.6 percent over the same period of 2018. Retail Sales YoY in Serbia averaged 5.09 percent from 2003 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 35.67 percent in June of 2005 and a record low of -21.30 percent in July of 2011.
Retail Sales YoY in Serbia is expected to be 4.10 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Serbia to stand at 3.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Serbia Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 4.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.